Euro/Dollar

AUDUSD update - Nicely supported, 1H Chart; inverted Hammer, or even a bullish spinning top candle and it seems that in 4 minutes the hammer is in place.
4H Chart, inverted Hammer/A Doji.

Best Regards

Ok gents, Good evening.
I still don't know where you all at. Hope everyone is doing OK.
Yesterday I was half dead, tired to look at the charts even. When SLs and TPs are in place (they always are), it gives me the freedom to relax and less worry for my open positions.

Whatever I mentioned earlier in my post, all trades except EU have gone well so far.

1: EU - Just formed a star candle close, triple tops, still valid bearish BAT Pattern, strength divergence, still short and just added another one with 25pips SL and target at price level 1.2545, Trend support level
Please read/refer to full post of mine here.

2: UJ - Great performance, two of my targets were taken, the third is open and thinking to trail it and add more positions to it. For full setup of what I do/did, please refer to here.

3: AU - Well, that was a great trade actually, even in my posts I stated that I did long the pair, my SLs made that trade a big winner. still have open long positions on it, looking very tight for the Cypher pattern to take the Fib38.2 Retracement trade and if it is supported well I will go for more longs from there. Full how setups and chart please refer to here.

4: EJ - I took the 45 pips trade when I done posting one of my last posts 2 nights ago, when the bearish evening star formed, played well, but I wasn't around to take the long trade in the support level which rallied so fast.

5: GOLD - Still looking for a trade setup since I missed last Friday; Current level resists well, but it sits on previous highs, so I'll keep looking at the 1H chart to look for an entry, bullish of course.

Green pips to all.

morning


opened a new short 1.2645 but on a tight leash -and will watch london open closely.

there is a possiblity that we will test 1.265x again in the first hour and that could see stops take it through to 1.268x where I would again look for a short - as always we shall see as time unfolds

good trades to you all

Good morning
Short 1.2675 SL 1.2690 and trailing 15 pips just to wait NFP

and it did

nipped the last short in the bud for -1 so no harm done

now short again from 1.2674

also short on crude at this time

A perfect bounce.
Need closes to be above 1417 to give us a run at 1562

All right mates?

I am heading for break tommorow, will be traveling a bit until mid of oct, I placed long two days ago off WPV point and managed to get an internet access just now to see how it goes. Purely tech sign based on monthly chart and I expect more upside to come temporarily caped by 1,2827 (possibly) and then towards 1,3269/70. It is secured now with 100 pips and will be holding until I am fully back - nothing serious I would call it a testing position for mid term trade, hope you guys doing great
best of luck
regards
Tom
http://s11.postimage.org/busse0h6b/euro.gif
photo hosting

Good night/evening all
It has been quite crazy Friday; honestly I have missed all the news being with my family.

EURUSD - played nice, couldn't hold the resistance with the events and the structure was broken, like Tom mentioned, there is no stop between current level and 1.3250-70. Full review and forcast can be found in my blog - here. Expecting a retest before it rallies again.

AUDUSD - moved nicely to my second target, before the price decides which way it continues, Up trend or Down trend, a retest is highly expected to play now; I expect for both directions - full story - here.

Green pips mates.

Where are everybody on this thread?

Hello mate,still around just can't be bothered to post.

Might close those trades soon.

I thought you and everyone abandoned ship.

Nice to see you posting.

I myself haven't really had time to post and waiting for all these noise to go away so that fa can be a little more accurate.
Have done well on au, xauusd, acad and gbp usd.

Good,I see your vouch count has gone up,well done mate.

Watching Fiber close tonight,needs to be above 2855ish
to keep the bullish tone,i'm thinking it could close right at that level
then a retest of 2750,even maybe as low as 2660ish.

FXCM Dollar index chart,would not be any
surprise to see the Dollar getting a little traction around this level.

And I'm out for 800+. Reversing here to short @ 61.8 fib / resistance and targeting the 1.26XX level.

Bloody nice work mate,
It does look like its rolling over alright.

Sell the Fact Trade -- with a Home run possible:

Good morning friends... its been a while since I last strolled these parts. I have been busy programming instead of posting. Hope you are all well and drowning in cash.

I have just filled the 1st tranche of a multi-part short Sell the Fact trade, with a chance of a home run if The Bernanke disappoints... as well as a few other possible positive outcome scenarios... with a good Risk/Reward ratio.

I got a fill short EURUSD @ 1.2928 ahead of the 61.8% retrace of the 2012 EURUSD decline, near yesterday's high...

I have two other orders to build the position. One ahead of the 2950, option barrier today that should come under attack at the European or US equity open and hopefully provide a fill.

One more order resides higher against resistance that may catch a fill if the Hopium smokers really get toking today before the announcement.

All will be held against 1.3000 which should have a serious option related defense ( 1.2000/ 1.3000 Do Not Touch) if we should get close, barring Helicopter Ben actually sprinkling money in a BIG way today.

Trade reasons:

The market is well ahead of itself having priced in a perfect scenario of OMT bliss, and Bernanke money printing.

OMT has been priced in too much at this point.... the market is ignoring conditionality, and more importantly the size cap of the program after the German court ruling put a cap on German involvement. Anything short of unlimited bond buying by ECB invites vigilantes to attack.... and they will. With the cap, OMT isn't big enough for Spain and Italy, and this thing is far from the cure we have priced in at this point. The Bernanke anticipation is keeping OMT detractors from getting any traction, but that will pass today.... The market has potential to sell off in a correction as OMT bliss fades and reality sets in with scope to the 200 DMA 2830 at least (a re-test) with 2750/60 in reach.

The trade also bets on Bernanke not giving much to the QE Hopium smokers today. A complete No QE would be a home run scenario with scope to 2650 ( not in one day) as dollars will be quickly bought up sending Euro down.

Some other adjustments to Fed policy that fall short of expectations... a down-sized QE or half measure will disappoint as well.

Another trade driver may prove to be Middle East tensions. We may see a flight to safety/Dollar come into play over the next two days, giving impetus to downside. Especially after Friday prayers.

Lastly we have the same old same ol'...... The time to buy in anticipation of QE was days ago..... now that the announcement is at hand... its time to sell the fact... this too leads to a 2750/60 potential with a re-test of the 200 DMA along the way almost assured.

If The Bernake does come out with a massive QE announcement this trade will be a loser. Losing is part of the game and not a problem when trades are planned with realistic risk/reward in mind.

I expect to get the fill sub 2950 before the announcment. That would give me a basis leaving 67 pips risk to my stop loss tucked several points behind 1.3000, where a HUGE Do Not Touch option will be defended. If the third tranche gets a fill, the basis risk is even lower.

Reward Scenario:

1st soft target is 200 DMA 2830 = 1.6 times risk.
2nd target 1.2760 = 2.66 times risk
Home run target of 1.2650 = 4.30 times risk.

I will leg out along the way depending on the eventual size of the full position, giving me some average of the rewards. 2 to 1 risk reward is very very possible, if first two targets hit. More is possible.

To simply place a bet against an event happening would be foolish. This trade is a bet that Helicopter Ben will disappoint the QE Hopium smokers, but it has several possible winning scenarios to help it along, and most important, it offers good risk/reward.

Risk/Reward.... its the only Holy Grail there is....

Good day,

Good post Crassius. Also have 1.2760 marked. Got filled @ 1.2924. May add 1.2960.

Regards

Quote:

"Following the German Constitutional Court's decision to back the ESM with a cap on funds allocated, risk assets continued to rise as Draghi's "bazooka" move calmed markets. The responsibility for solving the debt crisis now lies squarely with governments. The expectation is that this buys time to implement budget reforms while rebuilding economies with pro-growth measures as the ECB keeps borrowing costs down. Meanwhile, Spain is being pushed towards a bailout by neighbors as the country's financial situation continues to spiral. Equity indices closed mostly higher led by the1.19% jump in the Italian MIB. The Swedish OMX rose 0.85%. The Swiss SMI and FTSE 100 were weaker, falling -0.21% and -0.17% respectively. EURUSD is back above the 1.29 handle at 1.2916.

As the next major market event looms with the FOMC rate decision and statement, followed by Bernanke commentary, risk assets globally are rallying in anticipation of another round of easing. Meanwhile, investors expecting massive Chinese stimulus measures were disappointed following a news report from the official Xinhua news agency. High inflation and low growth are likely to be stoked by further stimulus measures in excess of the announced infrastructure projects. New Zealand chose to keep the benchmark rate on hold at a record low 2.50% as RBNZ Governor Bollard's tenure comes to a close. Equity indices are mixed, with the Nikkei strengthening 0.46% while Hang Seng trades unchanged. The Australian ASX is weaker, ticking down -0.33%. NZDUSD has risen 0.15% to 0.8213 while AUDUSD has gained 0.10%.

Expectations are high that the Federal Reserve led by Chairman Bernanke will move to announce quantitative easing 3 later today at the closure of the two-day FOMC meeting. Predictions include $700 billion of asset purchases centered on treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. No change is expected in rates, however, raising rates may be postponed until 2015 if the situation is not seen as improving. Commodities and equities are rallying ahead of the announcement with major indices trading modestly higher. The Nasdaq closed up 0.32% followed by a 0.21% gain in the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up a slight 0.07%. There was a slight pullback in risk-assets yesterday following the German Court decision but the dollar continues to weaken, with the dollar index declining -0.14% to 79.628."

Regards

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a truly fantastic post , thank you