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  • #9,101
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:59am Sep 6, 2012 9:59am
Hurricane Fandango

The ship is entering a BIG STORM. The seas are getting rough. Be prepared to abandon ship at a moments notice. The bulls have come out of the woodwork after being in hiding for weeks on end and want a piece of the action but the bear cycle still has another week or two to complete. That mean both bulls and bears would be wise and know when the time is right to abandon ship. Hurricane Fandango = the BIG CHOP !!!
  • #9,102
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:03am Sep 6, 2012 10:03am
I'm wondering if the AUD has returned to that buy high sell higher mode like it was on the last run up...just curious....
  • #9,103
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:11am Sep 6, 2012 10:11am
Quoting petehnm
I'm wondering if the AUD has returned to that buy high sell higher mode like it was on the last run up...just curious....

Who knows ! BUT about mid week next week we'll see a huge confluence meeting in the same vicinity. The daily 50 ma, middle bollinger band, and the MAC all meet up with the ichimoku cloud at the same time. If PA is there too it will be very interesting to see what happens from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #9,104
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:22am Sep 6, 2012 10:22am
Quoting chiknthief
Who knows ! BUT about mid week next week we'll see a huge confluence meeting in the same vicinity. The daily 50 ma, middle bollinger band, and the MAC all meet up with the ichimoku cloud at the same time. If PA is there too it will be very interesting to see what happens from there.
sounds and looks good...but which way will the dance go...???? weekly seems to want the next down move...who knows...
  • #9,105
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:28am Sep 6, 2012 10:28am
Got back home and see that 1.025x got toasted..

So I guess this is the exact right spot to say

FUDGE!
  • #9,106
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:28am Sep 6, 2012 10:28am
Quoting FX-Pro
Looks like the 4H is through with the resistance
It went as expected... but took my SL before that.... i know it was too tight.... but that's OK.... part of this business...

Cheers
FX-Pro
Attached Images
  • #9,107
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:29am Sep 6, 2012 10:29am
Quoting petehnm
sounds and looks good...but which way will the dance go...???? weekly seems to want the next down move...who knows...
A move up to the big confluence area looks likely. I'm sure all the bears will be scrambling to get aboard there for the big sell off. And when it TANKS all the bulls will be breaking the doors down to GTF out of Dodge further fueling the fire.

But who knows !!!
  • #9,108
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:15am Sep 6, 2012 11:15am
Quoting chiknthief
A move up to the big confluence area looks likely. I'm sure all the bears will be scrambling to get aboard there for the big sell off. And when it TANKS all the bulls will be breaking the doors down to GTF out of Dodge further fueling the fire.

But who knows !!!

Could this be a mirror image of the last BIG CONFLUENCE ??? In reverse ? Look back in June when the 50ma (turquoise line), middle bollinger band, and the MAC channel (red and green lines) all met up with the ichimoku cloud. Look at that PA.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AUD confluence.pdf   23 KB | 211 downloads
  • #9,109
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:22am Sep 6, 2012 11:22am
For me Bears still in control as long as daily close Under 320
  • #9,110
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:25am Sep 6, 2012 11:25am
Quoting egkid
For me Bears still in control as long as daily close Under 320
Don't care much about news , My view touch 320 then down 220 =100
  • #9,111
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:27am Sep 6, 2012 11:27am
Quoting irfandbl
Got back home and see that 1.025x got toasted..

So I guess this is the exact right spot to say

FUDGE!

U were Short A/U ??

If so, why ?
As your Excel targets forecast higher, right ?
  • #9,112
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:28am Sep 6, 2012 11:28am
Quoting chiknthief
Lolol, the market zig zags down, then it zig zags up darn near everyday.
This is not the ZIGZAG I was talking about.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,113
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:35am Sep 6, 2012 11:35am
Quoting egkid
Don't care much about news , My view touch 320 then down 220 =100

If it can go up break the Gap, and the Gap can support, then up target around 1.0407.

If the Gap becomes the resistance, then with your view on down target.
  • #9,114
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:50am Sep 6, 2012 11:50am
Another great chance to go short again. Funny, if you look beneath the news headlines there was a story about dropping ore prices. I've never been to Australia, but from what I have read sounds like a big part of their economy is levered to mining. And it even sounds like they may have built themselves a little bubble based on that commodity based economy (like miners making $25 an hour.) Sorry folks but that is all coming to an end. Long term I see this back in the 90s. I won't start losing my appetite until this pair gets back to 1.05. Then I'll be scared. I do think 1.04 is possible. I started scaling in this morning. Last week was terrific; but I was stopped out at 1.0235
  • #9,115
  • Edited 12:24pm Sep 6, 2012 12:02pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting foxybunny
U were Short A/U ??

If so, why ?
As your Excel targets forecast higher, right ?
Yes I did short. By the time I shorted, H4 14,3,3 had not crossed level 50 and H4 5,3,3 was showing me 1.0255 as the highest target. So I tried picking up tops (sell limit) with tight SL because I had to leave the house and wasn't able to pay attention to any further PAs

M15 showed me that it could take this pair to 1.0295

Quoting irfandbl

M15 has been rebuilding new upward targets, not good for intraday bears

Attachment
but I underestimated its ability to drag this pair to its 100% target because M15 targets often changes by the time it makes new lows/highs and re-crosses of level 50 stochastic
  • #9,116
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:22pm Sep 6, 2012 12:22pm
The tide has turned on Daily chart. The Bull has not done his job yet on Monthly chart. The red dot at upper Bull's tail will be reached.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,117
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:45pm Sep 6, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting egkid
Don't care much about news , My view touch 320 then down 220 =100
I am seeing a H&S on Daily, IMO, 430-440 maybe the completion of the other shoulder.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h & s aud sep 6 2012.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #9,118
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:57pm Sep 6, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting payal
I am seeing a H&S on Daily, IMO, 430-440 maybe the completion of the other shoulder.
here's my post from a few days ago
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5984608#post5984608
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdhs1.gif Size: 29 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,119
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:03pm Sep 6, 2012 4:03pm
Announcement:

I am conducting a survey regarding the TF use. This is to help everyone trade better.

Q1. Which TF do you use mainly for entries and exits? [Only one TF]
Q2. What are your reasons? [Optional]

Thanks.

-DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,120
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:12pm Sep 6, 2012 4:12pm
Currently, the Aussie is going through a retracement of the run-up earlier. This is a classical Twin-Bear pattern IMO.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
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