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AUD/USD

  • #52,121
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:18am Sep 6, 2012 2:18am
Quoting jplazard
Here is the Draghi set up for EUR/USD AND AUD/USD.
Thanks JPLazard, always appreciate your help and more than that your explanations.
I've just seen this eur setup yesterday just before the London close and have taken 1 long at 2602 although I was short in AJ. I just learn to become a little bit schizo and manage my Aj short which one is unfortunately two times bigger than Eurusd.
Have nice day.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,122
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:52am Sep 6, 2012 2:52am
Im sure a few picked up on this but Sweden just cut their rates 25bps to 1.25%.. Trivia time what are the main exports of Sweden. Early hints all day for what will be coming down the pipeline for a the one down under…
Wood, Pulp, paper products, Iron (Iron ore), Steel….Hmmmm who else exports a big segment of Iron ore??? This is a stumper
  • #52,123
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:01am Sep 6, 2012 4:01am
Mario will most likely talk about the SMP tonight. I am still working on my fundies. I got this one from Cloggie. So, it is one more nitch in my FA knowledge. I hope it is helpful.

On 10 May 2010, the central banks of the Eurosystem started purchasing securities in the context of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP), with a view to addressing the severe tensions in certain market segments which have been hampering the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Under the SMP, public and private debt securities are considered eligible for purchase. For details, see ECB decision of 14 May 2010 ( ECB/2010/5 ) and the press release: "ECB decides on measures to address severe tensions in financial markets" (10 May 2010).
Outstanding amount *€ mil.208,830Date31 Aug. 2012* Settled amount as of given date
With a view to leaving liquidity conditions unaffected by the programme, the Eurosystem re-absorbs the liquidity provided through the SMP by means of weekly liquidity-absorbing operations. The intended amount for absorption equals the cumulative size of settled SMP transactions at the end of the preceding week, rounded to the nearest half billion. For more details on SMP settled volumes see Weekly Financial Statement and for the announcements of the SMP-sterilising operations see the tab “Ad-hoc communications” in "Open Market Operations" .
In the context of the ECB’s liquidity analysis, the liquidity provided through the SMP is displayed on a daily basis together with the liquidity effect of autonomous factors, under the item “Net liquidity effect from Autonomous Factors and SMP”. However, the estimate of average autonomous factors published by the ECB on MRO announcement and MRO allotment days excludes the effect of SMP liquidity.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,124
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:06am Sep 6, 2012 4:06am
Quoting jplazard
Im sure a few picked up on this but Sweden just cut their rates 25bps to 1.25%.. Trivia time what are the main exports of Sweden. Early hints all day for what will be coming down the pipeline for a the one down under…
Wood, Pulp, paper products, Iron (Iron ore), Steel….Hmmmm who else exports a big segment of Iron ore??? This is a stumper
Iron ore is indeed the big one and the slump in price of iron ore is pretty much the main reason why the Aussie has dropped below 1.02, the other being a redistribution and profit taking of longer term Sterling and Euro short holdings against the Aussie mainly fueled by a possible change of course by the ECB and an intervention in the European bond market.

EURAUD and GBPAUD could find a top today depending on Draghi, which would inevitably bottom out AUDUSD at the 1.0165 double bottom area.
Gold and Silver have performed exceptionally well so far today and they are usually a very good indicator of where the risk sentiment is going to shift past BOE/ECB press conferences...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,125
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:20am Sep 6, 2012 7:20am
next level on downside would be 1.0206-1.0210. only if it comes down
  • #52,126
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:59am Sep 6, 2012 7:59am
Opinions of aud/nzd?
  • #52,127
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:59am Sep 6, 2012 7:59am
Looks like a direct move all ways so far
No break yet on AUD/USD untill we break this floor we will not retest pre spike levels

This could shap to be a range into the end of the week but we will see how NY takes the market on ECb OMT plan...Remember this Europe plan has little affect on how AUD/USD will preform because their not in lockstep moves at least not for a week or more

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  • #52,128
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:05am Sep 6, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Kas1
Nice breakout of downward channel. Looks to me like demand is lurking around 10175.
Is there enough buyers around 10175 to shift the H4 downtrend? I don't think so at this point. Possible demand around 10100 as well.
  • #52,129
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:07am Sep 6, 2012 8:07am
Quoting HotBiscuits
Opinions of aud/nzd?
AUD/NZD looks bearish. i am not going to trade but i reckon it will go down. swing trade it, dont scalp
  • #52,130
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:11am Sep 6, 2012 8:11am
Come on Aussie , come down. leave gold go alone, dont follow it.

For scalping i am targettin 1.0206 while my swing target is around 1.01
  • #52,131
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:14am Sep 6, 2012 8:14am
Keep an eye on 1416 on $ES we brek higher than this should resonate into AUD/USD although percentage wise not so much upside..

This could be the same as FED reaction nice hype but range bordem that day..I am hoping for a pop on AUD as a bear so we can have a proper move but I will take the range play and Friday close near these levels for a potential gap again next sunday opening

Pink= S&P

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  • #52,132
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:52am Sep 6, 2012 9:52am
Quoting GnarlyPips
So, 1.28 is the highest probability while 1.053 is the lowest probability.
Target one hit.

Price is poking the 200 EMA. I should've seen that beforehand, more confluence more merrier! Two lines are stronger than one... But how strong is price?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,133
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:43am Sep 6, 2012 11:43am
What a beautiful sight
just speculating
  • #52,134
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:05pm Sep 6, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting eauyong
What a beautiful sight
RUN ER UP bulls !!! The bears wanna sell about wednesday of next week at the BIG CONFLUENCE. The 50ma, middle bollinger band, and the 21MAC all meet up with the ichimoku cloud about mid week next week. Last time that happened was back in June (in reverse of now) Check it out. What a beautiful sight !!!
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  • #52,135
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:22pm Sep 6, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting chiknthief
RUN ER UP bulls !!! The bears wanna sell about wednesday of next week at the BIG CONFLUENCE. The 50ma, middle bollinger band, and the 21MAC all meet up with the ichimoku cloud about mid week next week. Last time that happened was back in June (in reverse of now) Check it out. What a beautiful sight !!!
Don't think she'll make it much above 300... just got in short at 292 with stop at 335...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #52,136
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:32pm Sep 6, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Don't think she'll make it much above 300... just got in short at 292 with stop at 335...
LOL its funny how retailers love to pick tops and bottoms and give away money. Did you not see the reaction during Asia and follow through to NY? Does that not look like strength? When they are selling then ppl keep buying lol now it looks like STRENGTH to me and at no point is this a sell until they dump it again... u can tell but retailers somehow always choose to ignore the signals even though they know they are wrong.
  • #52,137
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:50pm Sep 6, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting sidhujag
LOL its funny how retailers love to pick tops and bottoms and give away money. Did you not see the reaction during Asia and follow through to NY? Does that not look like strength? When they are selling then ppl keep buying lol now it looks like STRENGTH to me and at no point is this a sell until they dump it again... u can tell but retailers somehow always choose to ignore the signals even though they know they are wrong.
Well, say what you want but the daily and weekly trend is definately down and I don't see us breaking that trend yet and we are at the top of the daily downtrend with some strong confluence at the 300 level and also the open for the week. If you have a look at the weekly charts you will see that we are actually in a range between 0.9600 and 01.0700 and we are no even halfway through this move down yet.

We will see what happens but this seems like a great place to sell with a 40 pip stop and 120 pip target.

This move was all hype from the ECB action, NOT strength...

Let's see ;-)
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #52,138
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:08pm Sep 6, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Well, say what you want but the daily and weekly trend is definately down and I don't see us breaking that trend yet and we are at the top of the daily downtrend with some strong confluence at the 300 level and also the open for the week. If you have a look at the weekly charts you will see that we are actually in a range between 0.9600 and 01.0700 and we are no even halfway through this move down yet.

We will see what happens but this seems like a great place to sell with a 40 pip stop and 120 pip target.

This move was all hype from the ECB...
Even during AS when ECB was sleeping? Ok gluck..
  • #52,139
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:10pm Sep 6, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Well, say what you want but the daily and weekly trend is definately down and I don't see us breaking that trend yet and we are at the top of the daily downtrend with some strong confluence at the 300 level and also the open for the week. If you have a look at the weekly charts you will see that we are actually in a range between 0.9600 and 01.0700 and we are no even halfway through this move down yet.

We will see what happens but this seems like a great place to sell with a 40 pip stop and 120 pip target.

This move was all hype from the...
You should go with 60 pip stop.
Resistance @ 1.0355
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #52,140
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:11pm Sep 6, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting KillerWhale
You should go with 60 pip stop.
Resistance @ 1.0355
But I'm short myself for just a scalp for the next few hours.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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