FUDGE
Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery
- #9,061
- Sep 6, 2012 3:04am Sep 6, 2012 3:04am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
FUDGE
- #9,063
- Sep 6, 2012 3:15am Sep 6, 2012 3:15am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
M15 has been rebuilding new upward targets, not good for intraday bears
H4 14,3,3 is trying to cross level 50 stoch, again..not good for intraday bears
H4 14,3,3 is trying to cross level 50 stoch, again..not good for intraday bears
- #9,066
- Sep 6, 2012 3:37am Sep 6, 2012 3:37am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,106 Posts
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
- #9,067
- Sep 6, 2012 3:40am Sep 6, 2012 3:40am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
Is this the monthly divergence you are referring to because PA did come down to where the divergence started, so for me this divergence already done its job.
The month is too young anyway, and indeed the bullish run should start sometime soon, however IMO not before testing at least July lows (1.0100).
And ... I am most possibly wrong as well anyway
But that's what I see, and will either wait for 1.01 or a break of the channel. Until then, it's just fandango!
- #9,068
- Sep 6, 2012 3:51am Sep 6, 2012 3:51am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
1.0264 for a reaction there.
We may see the Monday gap closed be the end of the week.
My divergence trades are in profit, so I will watch PA and might add a TSL to protect some of the profit. This way if this is just a minor correction to a stronger down move at least I will gain some pips and look to enter again from a lower level.
- #9,070
- Sep 6, 2012 3:56am Sep 6, 2012 3:56am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
We may see the Monday gap closed be the end of the week.
My divergence trades are in profit, so I will watch PA and might add a TSL to protect some of the profit. This way if this is just a minor correction to a stronger down move at least I will gain some pips and look to enter again from a lower level.
Here we have the cross down and about the levels that I was expecting though from other tools.
But as always, Mr. Market is who decides in the end!
So for now I will go to sleep until either one of the price alerts go off.
Or maybe it's time for a coffee break, instead ...
Cheers!
- #9,071
- Sep 6, 2012 3:59am Sep 6, 2012 3:59am
- | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Lucky Man | 2,267 Posts
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
- #9,072
- Edited 4:23am Sep 6, 2012 4:02am | Edited 4:23am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
REDS = reached
- #9,074
- Sep 6, 2012 4:16am Sep 6, 2012 4:16am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
My original TP for this week was also around the Gap.
But price kept below the Gap so far this week.
If it cannot go above this Gap, A/U still weak.
See what type of reaction will happen near the Gap.
"See what type of reaction will happen if we get near the Gap"
- #9,076
- Sep 6, 2012 4:26am Sep 6, 2012 4:26am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,106 Posts
No. Here's the chart.
The month is too young anyway, and indeed the bullish run should start sometime soon, however IMO not before testing at least July lows (1.0100).
Attachment
And ... I am most possibly wrong as well anyway
But that's what I see, and will either wait for 1.01 or a break of the channel. Until then, it's just fandango!
3rd time today
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
- #9,077
- Sep 6, 2012 4:34am Sep 6, 2012 4:34am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,106 Posts
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
- #9,078
- Sep 6, 2012 4:39am Sep 6, 2012 4:39am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
Couldn't agree more, ma'am, market always seems to take out the lowest lows before turning north. Maybe it's just me, but I think E/A is gaining more and more importance in spotting Aussie trend changes. This article hints CBs - among them SNB - been active in AUD as well to diversify.
http://forexblog.oanda.com/20120904/the-loonie-is-so-boring-its-predictable/
Fandango true true ... nice way to put a violent, directionless chop, which is intraday PA most of the time LOL.
At any time the price has been there (and NOT at 250 which is the center) I have made wrong entry decisions. Of course, there are other places, like for example the one we're just now.
But "FOR ME" (as those were huge mistakes of last year = 6-8% loss after a painful 50% floating DD), that's the price level I don't want to hear about, LOL. It's just a personal joke
You said it, anyway: violent, directionless chop.
That's why I am moving to quieter zones.
Now, after 7 years of trading, and even though steadily profitable from 4 years ago, I finally start to understand many of the lessons that more seasoned traders used to scold me with in my beginnings.
It's a long long story, but I feel I have grown to another (if slightly above) trading level.
You said: Maybe it's just me, but I think E/A is gaining more and more importance in spotting Aussie trend changes.
Indeed that's how I have been trading all 2011, with the AU, EA and EU's 5-minute charts side by side to gauge the relationship and "predict" Aussie short-term moves.
Very often longer term EURAUD charts could offer more clues than Aussie's own.
I had been thinking about using those three pairs for a triangular hedge, but lost interest after some backtesting.
But it is indeed a very useful tool to watch in parallel, on such short frames, you can understand a big portion of the whole picture and the relative strength of either of the three currencies altogether.
If Aussie falls, sometimes it's the USD which is strong, sometimes it's the Euro dragging it down, or either its own fragility when risk goes off the markets. This is obvious of course, but the amazing thing is that you can actually SEE it on the charts at every tick, and thus act accordingly!
- #9,079
- Sep 6, 2012 4:52am Sep 6, 2012 4:52am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
I can see how you derived at the first 2 divergences using the 20,3,3 Stoch, (which both did their job nicely) but the one you call the young one (3rd one), I see the Stoch is flat (hence your term the young one) but the red line you have drawn above the two small red candles is sloping in the wrong direction to indicate Bearish divergence, is it not?
3rd time today
And then it dawned on me that the last candle is a MONTHLY candle and has a few weeks to go and change. That's why I went back to weekly and downsized the number of periods until I got something (as it was barely beginning to turn.
Or course 5,3,3 will be short-lived. But the levels it signals coincide with my other findings so I'll take them until they are proven wrong.
The question I sometimes forget to ask myself but is crucial to any view: What trend am I on? at any given point of decision. If I forget to do the whole round-turn scanning (from Monthly to H1 to 5m to 30m to H4 to Weekly and again rinse and repeat) every few hours to understand what is happening and position my expectances in confluence.
Changes start small, until they overturn the picture.
But the market is just permanently ranging, in a 3D slant.
Move like a radar.
- #9,080
- Sep 6, 2012 4:57am Sep 6, 2012 4:57am
- | Joined May 2012 | Status: Ball reader | 1,034 Posts
3rd time today
Gaps should always be filled they are caused by the big boy Sharks that get to trade 24/7 while we only get 24/5 and therefore can do nothing about what they are doing until the market reopens