AUD/USD | Page 2606 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #52,101
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:43pm Sep 5, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Can someone please explain for me the recent news from Australia!
Participation rate came in lower than expected , 65.0 vs 65.2 exp .
So , even though employment fell slightly , less people actively seeking work caused the unemployment percentage to fall .
  • #52,102
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:44pm Sep 5, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Can someone please explain for me the recent news from Australia!
Check bak on August 3rd, when something similar happened in US. Non-Farm went from 100k to 163k while Unepmloyment changed from 8.2 to 8.3. THat day USD lost a lot of ground.

Fromw what I have seen on the forum, someone has said that US actually lost jobs, because there was more unemployed now than what has been added.

Sorry I tried my best to explain, you would be better off to read the forum yourself. Just look for August 3rd postings.
  • #52,103
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:44pm Sep 5, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Can someone please explain for me the recent news from Australia!
The unemployment rate in Australia has dropped by .1%, beating estimates by .2%.

dab has mentioned though that the participation rate, the actual number of people eligible for and seeking work has also declined. Meaning that the unemployment number is "fluffy" or not as good as it seems.

The market is taking the number as bullish at the moment though and so we're getting the spike in price.
  • #52,104
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:49pm Sep 5, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
Participation rate came in lower than expected , 65.0 vs 65.2 exp .
So , even though employment fell slightly , less people actively seeking work caused the unemployment percentage to fall .
A falling participation rate can be a double-edged sword .
Whilst the lower headline rate unemployment rate can look positive ,
it can also be read as a sign of disillusionment within the job market - people giving up finding work .
  • #52,105
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:02pm Sep 5, 2012 9:02pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
A falling participation rate can be a double-edged sword .
Whilst the lower headline rate unemployment rate can look positive ,
it can also be read as a sign of disillusionment within the job market - people giving up finding work .
Might continue to rise on ECB news during London session as well as expectation of QE3 if U.S. numbers are poor.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #52,106
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:08pm Sep 5, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting anton.olff
Might continue to rise on ECB news during London session as well as expectation of QE3 if U.S. numbers are poor.

1.0225 is a key resistance , if breaks upside it will continue rising , if not it might head south again after ECB press !!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.â€Â
  • #52,107
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:10pm Sep 5, 2012 9:10pm
Will be interesting to see how high this spike goes, I hope its not too high lol.

Btw, thanks to everyone in here for the explanations for us newbies. Much appreciated.
  • #52,108
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:45pm Sep 5, 2012 9:45pm
Why?

A that means you are buying DOLLARS which are far from a stellar hold and
B.THis is THE WORST (Shorting Aussie) - (Neg) ROLL in ForeX.

Quoting HotBiscuits
God I hope this continues tanking... a entry at 0.95 or lower again would be amazing...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,109
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:50pm Sep 5, 2012 9:50pm
Sure,

Start reading.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Quote
Breaking news from Sydney, Australia and the world. Features the latest business, sport, entertainment, travel, lifestyle, and technology news.
Quoting ibram.forex
Can someone please explain for me the recent news from Australia!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,110
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:09pm Sep 5, 2012 11:09pm
I heard Australian jobless unemployment rate was better than forcasted. It made some nice pips today. However, I am still going to short the AUD for the long run. All my indicators are saying downtrend and my three EMAs just got greater than my heiken ashi (Trading on 1day).

What do you guys think is going to happen for the long run?
  • #52,111
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:30pm Sep 5, 2012 11:30pm
Had a position opened long for AudUsd, NzdUsd, and short for EurAud. Forgot about the news release with the jobs... Exited out of my positions after getting fed up with them not moving. (I was scared that I saw a possible continuation pattern for the AudUsd, even though I saw an ascending triangle for NzdUsd.)

These are some levels I'm interested in. I know I've flown the 1.05 banner, but I can see that the banner may be flying just a bit lower. 1.42~1.43, maybe.

With each line, since you can see that I've drawn them when prices retraces (or whatever you call it) in a downtrend, and where the highest open/close is at for that retrace, starting from the bottom comes less probability. So, 1.28 is the highest probability while 1.053 is the lowest probability. Some sort of thing I've been doing lately, tweaking things here and there.

Edit: oh yeah, this is the hourly, not the 4h like the filename would suggest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4haussiedoller.png Size: 32 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,112
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:44am Sep 6, 2012 12:44am
Smilemiz,

Thank you for the props have looked at your former post these last couple days and your set ups are similar as well. You have some great analysis and are definitely a leg up on me in certain areas of trading.

Dab,
Yes that was an incorrect statement I mixed up the 50%retrace from YTD when I should of said it was at 50% From the All time high last year to that low. My apologies.

I have been out for two day’s writing a paper on why AUD/USD will fall to 0.99-0.97 within a short time span possibly before the new year when we cut rates in Nov or Dec(or both). As of Right now I have been following the other thread of bull arguments and now some have switched and said short. Plus we are oversold and I don’t want to be in the way of Draghi tomorrow so I am taking off 60% of my short and locking it in. We should experience a B wave the rest of this week and I will reload at 1.0360-90 area. Pnl for the trade put on 3wks ago I have 28c open and I am taking off 17contracts..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-05-PositionStatement.jpg Size: 31 KB



This unemployment number rise is a hilarious attempt to find a bull or bottoming in the economy by thinking the lowered rate or small hiring of full time workers is a great case for a long
· Drop In hours worked
· Drop in participation
· Drop in part time work
· Small rise in full time hiring
The market is oversold but I will fade this market beyond heavy once we come to 1.0350-80. There is a shift in flows that will take place once rates are cut and not to mention in July bond sales by the AUD gov dropped 38% that has been their peak since.
  • #52,113
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:51am Sep 6, 2012 12:51am
Quoting jplazard
Smilemiz,

Thank you for the props have looked at your former post these last couple days and your set ups are similar as well. You have some great analysis and are definitely a leg up on me in certain areas of trading.

Dab,
[font=Calibri][size=3]Yes that was an incorrect statement I mixed up the 50%retrace from YTD when I should of said it was at 50% From the...
again.. i am watching you...

I am waiting for yours .. just call me michelle
  • #52,114
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:53am Sep 6, 2012 12:53am
Quoting XTrade
Why?

A that means you are buying DOLLARS which are far from a stellar hold and
B.THis is THE WORST (Shorting Aussie) - (Neg) ROLL in ForeX.
To get in a long entry on audusd at 0.95, what is so amazing about that? Why did you feel the need to capitalize random letters?
  • #52,115
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:57am Sep 6, 2012 12:57am
Correction should come if Drahgi delivers tomorrow and does not pull a Ben move of future forecasting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-05-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 126 KB
  • #52,116
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:02am Sep 6, 2012 1:02am
Good to see you back JP, had been wondering what you were up to. Do we get to see the paper or summary of?

I've experienced a frustration of being part time trader today (trying to trade unemployment whilst at my other job only to get interupted right at 11:30! Was hoping for bad news and further drop in price but had stops in place for if price went up. Just hasn't gone up as much as I'd like for my resells. Last half hour brings some promise of that.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,117
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:06am Sep 6, 2012 1:06am
Quoting jplazard
Correction should come if Drahgi delivers tomorrow and does not pull a Ben move of future forecasting.
I'm worried that Draghi won't deliver (at least not before the German court ruling) and that we will thus see markets disappointed. Irony is that even if they are and EUR drops than we could see correction up on AUD as EUR & AUD have largely moved out of step the last month or two.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,118
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:29am Sep 6, 2012 1:29am
GM all,
sorry for being outpost and sorry for posting a chart that was surely posted (I haven't checked) a thousand times in euro related threads.


What can we expect as consequences for us in trade with audusd and audjpy if euro crosses firmly this trendline ?

thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e8h.gif Size: 28 KB
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,119
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:47am Sep 6, 2012 1:47am
Here is the Draghi set up for EUR/USD AND AUD/USD.




1st Option. Market disappointed EUR/USD trades to 1.2480 uptrend support sending EUR/AUD testing lower uptrend support, and AUD/USD testing higher support near


2nd Option. Risk On EUR/USD breaks out to trade to 1.2690-1.27 EUR/AUD on a percentage basis will outperform putting still more pressure on AUD/USD lower.

3rd. Option Correlation for the day breaks down or no reading to trade and all three markets trade directly with each other up or down. But this will be a short term anomaly because If you look at the YTD this inverse trade buying EUR/USD selling AUD/USD is still very much in play until correlation trends to 0-0.25


Tomorrow could be a no read for correlation but it will prevail once the dust settles on this hype.. That's all the market is the shifting of flows of capital from one market to the next one goes up the other down only if you can find the highest inverse correlation markets to compare you can ride for weeks or more with no worry



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-05-TOS_2CHARTS.jpg Size: 144 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-05-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #52,120
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:12am Sep 6, 2012 2:12am
Quoting dab
Good to see you back JP, had been wondering what you were up to. Do we get to see the paper or summary of?

I've experienced a frustration of being part time trader today (trying to trade unemployment whilst at my other job only to get interupted right at 11:30! Was hoping for bad news and further drop in price but had stops in place for if price went up. Just hasn't gone up as much as I'd like for my resells. Last half hour brings some promise of that.
Dab you mean the Pnl yes the pic above shows full line I am out and now only short 17. I am happy too my system crashed so I had to buy all new computers and wall mounts ect and install..So that was a fun 2 days..
Yes AUD/USD is experiencing capitulation this week for sure but that employment number put a nice floor in here and I never short into Draghi he is the ultimate squeeze for us bears

I hear you I never trade within channels I sit on my hands listen to meditation music lol and wait for 78.6%’s and 88.6%’s or my own Fib I have back tested for some time to hit and start building a position off of ABC retrace correction s like the one below as an example.

The key to the game is to
A. even though your part time get out of the mentality that you need to make money everyday you don’t. This is not a normal job and the market gives you great setups if your patient and wait for weeks or months for that ‘Big Trade

B. Don’t tie up capital in a losing position or hold a losing position cut your losses get out and redeploy on a better setup.

AUD/USD will give you a long shortly and a Short soon again back to 1.01
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-06-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 115 KB
133 traders viewing now