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  • #9,041
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:49pm Sep 5, 2012 11:49pm
Before going to bed, let me leave a note here. The Aussie baby is currently held up by the upper DTL down from Sunday open. Based on H1 ADX, she will break through this UDTL and move to a higher green plateau.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1346193538
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,042
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:55pm Sep 5, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Before going to bed, let me leave a note here. The Aussie baby is currently held up by the upper DTL down from Sunday open. Based on H1 ADX, she will break through this UDTL and move to a higher green plateau.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1346193538

Do you watch the EurChf?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #9,043
  • Edited Sep 6, 2012 12:15am Sep 5, 2012 11:57pm | Edited Sep 6, 2012 12:15am
[quote=dab;5988517]
Quoting Robot Trader
Looking firstly at the H4 chart the divergence did not show itself until around 7th May and I calculate the total down move from where the divergence started to be 690 pips, but if you had started to attack from where the divergence first showed itself on the 4H MACD histogram then your drawdown would have been about 525 pips until it stopped and turned North.

Thanks RT for following up on looking at May divergence. I've been looking at that and your posts from 20th August to try and better understand. I can see the...
When I took the divergence trade I posted a chart showing my reasons, but basically the 1.04 is for me where the divergence first started to form and the 1.02 level is where PA and the MACD histogram are moving apart from each other to such an extent they have formed divergence, (when PA and histogram are moving together this is convergence) now with divergence we do not know when it will cause the price to correct we only know that it will happen at some point. I decided to start my attack at 1.02 with it being a round number, but price could still move much lower, I can look for signs for calling tops and bottoms, but at best they would be very debatable.

However my trading style is such that for me it is the divergence within markets that goes a long way in forming the cycles (or waves) so it is not important for me to get my first entry spot on because if the trade goes against me I will simply add more trades (within the constraints of my money management) I do this because I have found that divergence that is formed on the higher TF will always bring the PA back to where it was first formed.

But my safety net on this present trade is I see the price coming back to 1.04, I have started my attack at 1.02, which is 200 pips away from where I expect price to go. Now because I will add more trades at known levels of Support, example 1.01, 1.00, 0.99 etc providing these levels are reached, then when PA moves above 1.02 again I can afford to close some of my earlier trades (1.02 & 1.01) and let the later ones run (1.00 & 0.99) all the way to 1.04.

I hope this helps
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,044
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:16am Sep 6, 2012 12:16am
Thanks RT, it does help some, although also raises the question why in your example you wouldn't hold the 1.02 & 1.01 until 1.04 (or give them the chance to get there) if you are confident of price getting there?

There was also a second part to my question:
"I don't get why you refer to 690 & 525 pips separately. Is there a difference between the total down move and drawdown?"
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #9,045
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:20am Sep 6, 2012 12:20am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Do you watch the EurChf?
No. Currently I only trade the Aussie. If you are looking for volatility, GBPJPY and EURJPY are good pairs to trade. If you are looking for something moving like turtles, try USDJPY. Is EURCHF slow moving too?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,046
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:21am Sep 6, 2012 12:21am
Quoting irfandbl
G'day!

The thing about the values shown on the left of the screen (next to 5,3,3) is it's showing the running value, which means the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the current part of the stochline hasn't closed yet.
What we need is the value of the stochline which is vertically aligned to a closed candlestick, hence the mouse hover because we need the previous value of stochline, not the running one.

You can see that after a candle closes, a new part/extension of stochline is being created with a running value...
OK, finally I now understand the importance of the candle being closed in relation to the Stoch (above/below 50) and will hover my mouse.

Thank again for your time.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,047
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:25am Sep 6, 2012 12:25am
Although I use Monthly and Weekly for general direction, at this moment I don't see any clear on the Weekly chart, because of the Monthly's big bearish divergence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly chart.png Size: 65 KB


Here's my H4 chart with anyway a temporary bullish target placement, based on the highest peak of the stoch.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool weekly.png Size: 71 KB


Monthly also, for the record. Still below the Monthly Pivot.
And Monthly ranging moves are HUGE

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool weekly 2.png Size: 70 KB
  • #9,048
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:25am Sep 6, 2012 12:25am
Quoting DaddyBear
No. Currently I only trade the Aussie. If you are looking for volatility, GBPYPY and EURJPY are good pairs to trade. If you are looking for something moving like turtles, try USDJPY. Is EURCHF slow moving too?
That's a nice thing about trading currencies. You have different options to choose from that might better suit your trading style. Of course it's also relative. Spreads are affected by volatility and position size should also be calculated accordingly.
  • #9,049
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:27am Sep 6, 2012 12:27am
Quoting DaddyBear
No. Currently I only trade the Aussie. If you are looking for volatility, GBPYPY and EURJPY are good pairs to trade. If you are looking for something moving like turtles, try USDJPY. Is EURCHF slow moving too?
Well, look at it. It's been trading within a ten pip range for months. It could very well be breaking out to the upside right now, which would be great for the Euro. The EurUsd moves up when the AudUsd moves down, lately.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #9,050
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:30am Sep 6, 2012 12:30am
Quoting DaddyBear
We are not spouses. If there is a Papa, there must be a Mama. It is perfect in our forum. Do you agree?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koCVMAyHWN0
  • #9,051
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:35am Sep 6, 2012 12:35am
Quoting DaddyBear
No. Currently I only trade the Aussie. If you are looking for volatility, GBPJPY and EURJPY are good pairs to trade. If you are looking for something moving like turtles, try USDJPY. Is EURCHF slow moving too?
1st greeting 1st post...

u right...
  • #9,052
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:38am Sep 6, 2012 12:38am
Quoting smilemiz
1st greeting 1st post...

u right...
long buying
Attached Image
  • #9,053
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:40am Sep 6, 2012 12:40am
Quoting doblece
Although I use Monthly and Weekly for general direction, at this moment I don't see any clear on the Weekly chart, because of the Monthly's big bearish divergence.

Attachment

Here's my H4 chart with anyway a temporary bullish target placement, based on the highest peak of the stoch.

Attachment

Monthly also, for the record. Still below the Monthly Pivot.
And Monthly ranging moves are HUGE

Attachment
very good
  • #9,054
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:43am Sep 6, 2012 12:43am
Quoting smilemiz
1st greeting 1st post...

u right...
so unique this place.. I can see so many bull and bear dolls.
They are good friend..
  • #9,055
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:45am Sep 6, 2012 12:45am
Quoting dab
Thanks RT, it does help some, although also raises the question why in your example you wouldn't hold the 1.02 & 1.01 until 1.04 (or give them the chance to get there) if you are confident of price getting there?"
I guess its down to money management, I would still look to let the 1.02 & 1.01 run, but move the SL to BE a.s.a.p. the 1.00 & 0.99 trades are now my money makers.

Quoting dab
There was also a second part to my question:
"I don't get why you refer to 690 & 525 pips separately. Is there a difference between the total down move and drawdown?"
I did answer this part but for some reason (which I might have worked out now, I'll see if this one shows both answers) did not display. The 690 is where the histogram first started forming the divergence (marked with a red line on the 4H chart) so this is the TP target and the 525 is where you would enter the trade thus causing the drawdown.

The thing to do is to go over old charts in 4H and higher TF's and find the divergences based on what I have shown you. If you can find one that did not bring the PA back to where the divergence first started, please post it and I will take a look at it. It can be any currency pair and any year, because divergence is everywhere and the markets always move once it is formed, it is only a question of time and never a question of if.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,056
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:23am Sep 6, 2012 1:23am
Quoting doblece
Although I use Monthly and Weekly for general direction, at this moment I don't see any clear on the Weekly chart, because of the Monthly's big bearish divergence.

Attachment

Here's my H4 chart with anyway a temporary bullish target placement, based on the highest peak of the stoch.

Attachment

Monthly also, for the record. Still below the Monthly Pivot.
And Monthly ranging moves are HUGE

Attachment
Is this the monthly divergence you are referring to because PA did come down to where the divergence started, so for me this divergence already done its job.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd monthly chart 06 09 12.jpg Size: 136 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,057
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:24am Sep 6, 2012 1:24am
Quoting DaddyBear
Recycled?
Let me ask the supplier in Beijing

Quoting DaddyBear
We are not spouses. If there is a Papa, there must be a Mama. It is perfect in our forum. Do you agree?
Agree! So it's Papa Bull and Mama Bear currently?

Quoting Robot Trader
OK, finally I now understand the importance of the candle being closed in relation to the Stoch (above/below 50) and will hover my mouse.

Thank again for your time.
No problemo
  • #9,058
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:08am Sep 6, 2012 2:08am
Quoting irfandbl
Let me ask the supplier in Beijing



Agree! So it's Papa Bull and Mama Bear currently?



No problemo
Mama was a bullear .....
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,059
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:10am Sep 6, 2012 2:10am
Quoting smilemiz
1st greeting 1st post...

u right...
Welcome aboard, smilemiz. Hope you feel at home. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,060
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:33am Sep 6, 2012 2:33am
Thank you, and welcome aboard, @smilemiz!
Hope you'll like the ride!

Going to the lower TFs as I guess my first short will expire in about 40 minutes or so. Time to start trailing again...

Here's a m5 chart (sorry for the mess, I am just learning to walk about in that new platform ... still not very good at it I'm afraid ... ).

I spotted something as I think "they" are trying to lure Bulls into buying at such a (still) high price IMO. I for one wouldn't buy at least until 1.0100.

I saw several "weird" volume spikes on the last days and I was remembering what I'd read on the VSA thread so I just checked on m5 and found one volume divergence, again.

Now we seem to have a double top but I won't know till it's time for my shorty to go ... hopefully we can go down 20 pips in the next half hour? Hmmm ...

Here's the chart with a zoom on the volume divergence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: small TF m5 fibstool.png Size: 82 KB
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