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  • #9,021
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:21pm Sep 5, 2012 9:21pm
Hello every one

The employment figures are out and the headline looks good. Please do not get too excited and look beyond the headline. Not nearly as flash as one would want and may result in a small bounce only.
  • #9,022
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:23pm Sep 5, 2012 9:23pm
Attached Image


red = achieved

D1 and W1 is still in a down trend, so as for now I think this upward move is just a correction.
  • #9,023
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:38pm Sep 5, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting irfandbl
Attachment

red = achieved

D1 and W1 is still in a down trend, so as for now I think this upward move is just a correction.
Hippo Boy, I don't think this is a correction. It is going to be a Long March IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,024
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:44pm Sep 5, 2012 9:44pm
Looking firstly at the H4 chart the divergence did not show itself until around 7th May and I calculate the total down move from where the divergence started to be 690 pips, but if you had started to attack from where the divergence first showed itself on the 4H MACD histogram then your drawdown would have been about 525 pips until it stopped and turned North.

The histogram continued to build its divergence on the 4H resulting in a double bottom, looking at the MACD MA line they also started to show divergence on the 4H, marked with purple lines.

On the Daily chart the divergence started to form much later (which is normal because of the higher TF) the Daily divergence was around 360 pips and would have put your account in 150 pip drawdown if you had entered from where it first showed itself.

If you had entered the trade based on the 4H divergence you would have roughly held your position from 7th May until PA returned to where the divergence first started which would have been around 12th July. The trade would have made an good carry trade. I did not take this trade at the time I went for the excellent carry which was GBPAUD, which workout really well as I am sure it will do again this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 chart 06 09 12.jpg Size: 186 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily chart 06 09 12.jpg Size: 179 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,025
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:59pm Sep 5, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Hippo Boy, I don't think this is a correction. It is going to be a Long March IMO.
could be Papa, we'll see
  • #9,026
  • Sep 5, 2012 10:23pm Sep 5, 2012 10:23pm
Assuming that the current H4 candlestick closes with 1.0226 as it's high (note that there is still 2 more hours to go till it closes). Then it will have these targets for H4 stoch 5,3,3

10233
10238
10246
10255

I still think 1.023x area is a good selling point, of course with a good MM that is.

IF we go far beyond 1.0255 today (which I highly doubt) then we're heading for more than just a correction.

I'm not a fundie guy, but I notice that we have lots of data coming out today, and of course the long waited ECB Press Conference. So we should be expecting high volatility and some crazy PA.

Just my 2 pips...
  • #9,027
  • Edited 10:48pm Sep 5, 2012 10:33pm | Edited 10:48pm
based on the "stochcandlefib" method, the "low" on D1 is 1.0347.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.gif Size: 17 KB


So in order for D1 to get it's upward targets, the 50 level stoch cross should be vertically aligned with a candlestick which has a high value of more than 1.0347.
  • #9,028
  • Edited 11:14pm Sep 5, 2012 10:57pm | Edited 11:14pm
My views on H1-M30-M15:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool h1.png Size: 72 KB


BULLISH - H1
61.8% -- 1.0234
76.4% -- 1.0250 (1.0256 is pretty tight for a stop-loss here, but 61.8% level is where I'll accept fate and give back to the markets). And we're still below the Weekly pivot.
100% -- 1.0276

Although the price is above the daily center pivot, it is still in the "Pivot Zone" (S1<--->R1). Thus, all risks being under control, I will wait to see if my limit order is triggered and brings my other short position to B/E.
Should it reach all the way to 1.0276 or more, I would reassess the situation and eventually enter a pending stop order at the stopped level or below). I personally expect it to make a correction before continuing to the upside, because actual peak (and besides if it was SO long, my short entry would have already been triggered, LOL, it missed by 3.4 pips ). Was planning to set a stop buy above 1.0270 but rather wait to see price action develop, so I don't get caught buying at resistance.
Fandango zone is quite deadly... If the level breaks and retests, I will consider placing the long position at that time.

Note: Actual peak reached 100% from the farthest lowest point on the stochastic before crossing 50 level. Resulting Fib (the dotted lines at the left) is too squeezed to be read so I readjusted it to the most recent one for a more realistic scope. However, as this is the "original" point, I wonder if it won't reach much farther than its 1.618 extension, that is at 1.02310 (and hopefully will take my short in its way back to the pits ... )

M30-BULLISH (also see: corrected chart at the end of the post)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool m30.png Size: 65 KB


61% - (1.02406) --- corrected level: 1.02379
76.4% - (1.02582) --- CL: 1.02518
100% - (1.02867) -- CL: 1.02743

Same here.
Anyway I keep checking M15 for any eventuality that confirms a longer bullish continuation after that pinbar (I do not trust pin bars for the Aussie. Doesn't respect them much usually).


M15 - UNDECIDED

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool m15.png Size: 59 KB


I have set the 50 fib to the lows both sides to be prepared should it cross below and reassess. The subsequent outcome will allow me to decide about what my next moves should be.


EDIT: I checked M30 again and don't know if I might have had a slight slip while placing the fibs on the above chart. Here's the corrected chart with its levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibstool m30corrected.png Size: 57 KB


Now I don't know which one is the good one so I'll leave both just in case
  • #9,029
  • Edited 11:35pm Sep 5, 2012 11:09pm | Edited 11:35pm
[quote=Robot Trader;5988397]Looking firstly at the H4 chart the divergence did not show itself until around 7th May and I calculate the total down move from where the divergence started to be 690 pips, but if you had started to attack from where the divergence first showed itself on the 4H MACD histogram then your drawdown would have been about 525 pips until it stopped and turned North.

Thanks RT for following up on looking at May divergence. I've been looking at that and your posts from 20th August to try and better understand. I can see the divergence in May easier (thanks to your markings) than Aug. However, I don't get why you refer to 690 & 525 pips separately. Is there a difference between the total down move and drawdown?

Also I know you have started a long from 1.02 with target 1.04. Was this as you saw divergence at 1.02 and at 1.04? Sorry to ask something you might have already covered, I'm having a hard time referring back to all your posts as there are quite a few of them.

Edit: Don't worry about that question on 1.02 & 1.04, I found I can search your posts on specific words (eg divergence shows 85 results) and found your post 31/8 that outlined your plan.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #9,030
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:10pm Sep 5, 2012 11:10pm
It's BALL time

Attached Image
  • #9,031
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:11pm Sep 5, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting irfandbl
based on the "stochcandlefib" method, the "low" on D1 is 1.0347.

Attachment

So in order for D1 to get it's upward targets, the 50 level stoch cross should be vertically aligned with a candlestick which has a high value of more than 1.0347.
Further to our discussions yesterday regarding the values for the numbers next to the Stoch (5,3,3) the first one is the Main line current value and the second is the Signal line current value, the second number confused me because you have hidden the Signal line on your indicator, but its value is still shown.

So if I hover my mouse over the current position of the Main line it shows the same value as the value shown next to the Stoch (5,3,3) to the left hand side of the Stoch indicator. With this in mind, if we see the Main line at 50, can we not just look at the reading to the left of the indicator which should be the same as hovering the mouse over the Main line?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,032
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:24pm Sep 5, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting irfandbl
It's BALL time

Attachment
1.025x? 1.0256 > x >= 1.0250 (preferently...)
1.0233! (hopefully )

BTW I am using Stoch 20,3,3 for the following reasons:

20x1h = almost 1 day
20x30m = 10 hours = a bit above a session
20x15m = 5 hours = about half a session
20x1 day = about average trading days in a month
  • #9,033
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:26pm Sep 5, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting Robot Trader
Further to our discussions yesterday regarding the values for the numbers next to the Stoch (5,3,3) the first one is the Main line current value and the second is the Signal line current value, the second number confused me because you have hidden the Signal line on your indicator, but its value is still shown.

So if I hover my mouse over the current position of the Main line it shows the same value as the value shown next to the Stoch (5,3,3) to the left hand side of the Stoch indicator. With this in mind, if we see the Main line at 50, can we...
G'day!

The thing about the values shown on the left of the screen (next to 5,3,3) is it's showing the running value, which means the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the current part of the stochline hasn't closed yet.
What we need is the value of the stochline which is vertically aligned to a closed candlestick, hence the mouse hover because we need the previous value of stochline, not the running one.

You can see that after a candle closes, a new part/extension of stochline is being created with a running value shown on the left. That's not what we observe, we observe the previous one which belongs to the closed candlestick.

So my suggestion is to ignore the ones shown on the left..we don't need the running ones. We need the "closed" ones
  • #9,034
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:30pm Sep 5, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting doblece
1.025x? 1.0256 > x >= 1.0250 (preferently...)
1.0259 > x > 1.0255

Quote
1.0233! (hopefully )
that makes the two of us

Quote
BTW I am using Stoch 20,3,3 for the following reasons:

20x1h = almost 1 day
20x30m = 10 hours = a bit above a session
20x15m = 5 hours = about half a session
20x1 day = about average trading days in a month
I should have a try on this one, thanks Ma'am
  • #9,035
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:35pm Sep 5, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting irfandbl
It's BALL time

Attachment
Is your ball made of steel?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,036
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting irfandbl
1.0259 > x > 1.0255

that makes the two of us

I should have a try on this one, thanks Ma'am
Is Ma'am a typo of Mama?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,037
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Is your ball made of steel?
it's made of plastic

Quoting DaddyBear
Is Ma'am a typo of Mama?
oh, so we're calling her Mama now? OK then, it's a typo indeed.

are you two spouses?
  • #9,038
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:38pm Sep 5, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting irfandbl
it's made of plastic



oh, so we're calling her Mama now? OK then, it's a typo indeed.

are you two spouses?
Recycled?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,039
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:40pm Sep 5, 2012 11:40pm
Quoting irfandbl
it's made of plastic



oh, so we're calling her Mama now? OK then, it's a typo indeed.

are you two spouses?
We are not spouses. If there is a Papa, there must be a Mama. It is perfect in our forum. Do you agree?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,040
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:40pm Sep 5, 2012 11:40pm
Great stuff this Thread as of late,, Well done..Thought I show my chart..

So. My Chart.. Bear flag, Daily range is taped, swing Fibo rejection as current R and a news fade trade to boot.. I Like the RR but, need to cash in or need too monitor her well this weeks, with big news will give a good our sign of direction..

GL All!

PS Chilly Stoch is @ 14/8/8...because I like the responcivenece more than the larger number although I do like Miss Doblece's theory..fwiw
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 1h.gif Size: 41 KB
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