AUD/USD | Page 2605 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #52,081
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:53am Sep 5, 2012 1:53am
Quoting Hyperion
Nice charts Smilemiz, we view the markets much the same way.
Quoting Pair-me-up
You are really really good at EW and analysing the market. You are like the girl version of jplazard. Your posts and his posts are very humbling and show me that I need to study more. You are light years ahead of a lot of traders!



tq..
  • #52,082
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:54am Sep 5, 2012 1:54am
Quoting HotBiscuits
God I hope this continues tanking... a entry at 0.95 or lower again would be amazing...
sure why not
  • #52,083
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:54am Sep 5, 2012 1:54am
Quoting HotBiscuits
God I hope this continues tanking... a entry at 0.95 or lower again would be amazing...
It would be like... hot biscuits. LOL
  • #52,084
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:10am Sep 5, 2012 2:10am
Quoting HotBiscuits
God I hope this continues tanking... a entry at 0.95 or lower again would be amazing...
I hope it continues down too, but that's because I have more shorts than longs. An entry on it's own is not enough, it still needs a plan and risk management. I had a long at 9675 from 1/6/12 that I made just over 300 pips on but it would have been great to make more when we saw over 1000 pips up on offer. Unfortunately the 200+ pip retrace in late June triggered my stop....
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,085
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:29am Sep 5, 2012 3:29am
may i know the lowesst target of aud-usd?

thank you for the information
  • #52,086
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:36am Sep 5, 2012 3:36am
Quoting dy_92
may i know the lowesst target of aud-usd?

thank you for the information
There is major monthly support at .96. If it breaks .96 then AUD could fall into the abyss.

Major Support Zone: .94-.96
  • #52,087
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:43am Sep 5, 2012 3:43am
i have a buy position at 1.0378
is there any possibility to reached my position?

thank you
  • #52,088
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:03am Sep 5, 2012 4:03am
Quoting dy_92
i have a buy position at 1.0378
is there any possibility to reached my position?

thank you
It's really hard to tell, but I would probably close it out unless it is a very small position.

With the way things are going right now in the global economy, we could see a repeat of what we saw in 2008. If this happens, then AUD could literally fall into the abyss.

However, the next 2 weeks is full of volatility so it could go either way, depending on what comes out of the Eurozone as well as the next Fed's meeting on Sep. 13th.

If we don't get QE3 (as I'm expecting to be the case) then USD will go up and US equities along with most majors will go down. Reason being, QE3 is already priced into the markets, so if we don't get it, it will definitely be risk off.

Its completely up to you but I would look to cut my losses on the next retrace, assuming we get one...
  • #52,089
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:49am Sep 5, 2012 4:49am
Quoting dy_92
i have a buy position at 1.0378
is there any possibility to reached my position?

thank you
When entering a trade you should have a plan as to what you would do if price goes up and another for if it goes down. From where you are I'd try to look at whether price is likely to return to 1.0378 soon and whether current loss is larger than funding cost for likely timeframe needed to get back in profit, whilst factoring in downside risk. Given swap rates are in your favour at present that doesn't need to be considered. If you think we are in a downtrend (which I do) you could consider opening a sell on a retrace, close that when you think the trend is over and wait for your buy to get back to profit.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,090
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:50am Sep 5, 2012 4:50am
Quoting smilemiz
I told you...
??? I am not aware of you having told me anything relating to my post so I am confused as to your meaning.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,091
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:42am Sep 5, 2012 5:42am
Quoting dab
??? I am not aware of you having told me anything relating to my post so I am confused as to your meaning.
oh my...it's my false

sorry to quote u... my bad...
  • #52,092
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:10pm Sep 5, 2012 4:10pm
Get ready for a roller coaster Austrialian session later today when employment change and unemployment rate hit the markets tonight!
  • #52,093
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:47pm Sep 5, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Back to the future?...

http://a0.twimg.com/profile_images/1...ably_small.jpg

Remembrance...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aueu2.jpg Size: 485 KB
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #52,094
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:16pm Sep 5, 2012 7:16pm
Is it still a down ?
  • #52,095
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:00pm Sep 5, 2012 8:00pm
Some further analysis & accompanying chart from ANZ with regard to the correlation of the Iron Ore price , the Australian Economy and AUD ;


KEY POINTS
· The recent decline in spot iron ore prices is large by historical standards. At less than USD90/tonne presently, the spot iron ore price has fallen over 30% since June and is well below what had been considered its floor price of around USD120/tonne. The house view is that iron ore prices will rebound by early 2013 in line with a policy-led recovery in Chinese growth. The risk to this view, though, is that iron ore prices remain below the USD120/tonne marginal cost of Chinese production. This risk is exacerbated by the sluggish Chinese policy response to date, although ANZ expects a more aggressive policy response once the Chinese leadership transition occurs over the next month or two.
· Should the recent decline in iron ore prices and the Australian terms of trade be sustained, this would see weaker nominal GDP growth, weaker company profits, deterioration in federal and state budget positions and increasing financing challenges and delays for some mining projects under consideration. This effect is primarily beyond 2013 at this stage with major LNG projects dominating the pipeline before that time.
· The longer iron ore prices remain weak and the AUD remains strong, the less comfortable the RBA will likely be with the currency’s level, the greater the pressures for structural adjustment and the stronger will be the bias for more accommodative monetary policy. Given these risks and continuing declines in job advertising, ANZ is forecasting 50bps of official interest rate reductions by early 2013 as the RBA will be required to further boost the interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy. Beyond that time, the bias of rates still remains to the downside. Our FX strategists expect continuing bond inflows to mute the AUD’s normal balancing effect on the economy: absent this effect, the risks on the AUD would increasingly be to the downside.
Attached Image
  • #52,096
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:14pm Sep 5, 2012 8:14pm
Thanks Balmain Boy for sharing that info!

I'm particularly interested in knowing more about the bond inflows, is that related to the positive swap rate? If not what drives the bond inflows? (Sorry I don't know much about bonds)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,097
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:33pm Sep 5, 2012 8:33pm
Hmm, fewer employed but unemployment rate drops, guess that means the participation rate also decreased or am I missing something?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,098
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:36pm Sep 5, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting dab
Hmm, fewer employed but unemployment rate drops, guess that means the participation rate also decreased or am I missing something?

Can someone please explain for me the recent news from Australia!
  • #52,099
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:41pm Sep 5, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting dab
Hmm, fewer employed but unemployment rate drops, guess that means the participation rate also decreased or am I missing something?
That is the case-

Market got real excited over the pretty rate number though it seems.
  • #52,100
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:42pm Sep 5, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting dab
Hmm, fewer employed but unemployment rate drops, guess that means the participation rate also decreased or am I missing something?
Sorry that's what you get when you only look at the headline numbers -8.8K for employment change & 5.1% for unemployment rate. Looking at the report employment & unemployment both increased, participation rate stayed the same and unemployment rate 5.2% (why different to headline??)

Sorry ibram.forex not sure I can explain it.

Edit - differences between above in my post and headline are above are the trend, headline are seasonally adjusted
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
195 traders viewing now