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  • #8,401
  • Sep 5, 2012 12:09am Sep 5, 2012 12:09am
A very easy trade....read the signals, enter, let it hit TP.....a double top creating the high of the day....two pullback candles....the second just before LO...cross of the TDI from the 68 line....doesn't get much easier than this!! Watched it pull thru daily support (blue line) and H4 support (green line), hit the TP just before the H1 support line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.9.4 eu h1.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #8,402
  • Sep 5, 2012 12:12am Sep 5, 2012 12:12am
Quoting eth3onstock
Hi Emmanuel,

in this EU case, the last bearish HA bar is moving so fast without any strong bearish APB before as a signal bar. The cross of green/red TDI is still forming too. Do i have to wait for the close of this candle, or i can just jump right away in the middle of the bar (well.... afraid that i will be too late to catch the downtrend if i have to wait the next bar)
Jumping in on a move because you are afraid of missing it (like that 1 move will be the difference between success and failure as a trader) is one of the worst mistakes you can make (unless of course you have a researched method to take it e.g the stairsteps break out for example).

You correctly point out that there was no set up candle. So this entry would have been a guess, the problem with guesses is that (unless you are like Ronald Raygun) you might win this one and start guessing all the time. That rarely works out well. You can't back test the guess trades, maybe focus on the ones that worked and conveniently skipping past the ones that don't.

There will be lots more proper set ups coming.
  • #8,403
  • Edited 1:57am Sep 5, 2012 1:03am | Edited 1:57am
Quoting Phx62
A very easy trade....read the signals, enter, let it hit TP.....a double top creating the high of the day....two pullback candles....the second just before LO...cross of the TDI from the 68 line....doesn't get much easier than this!! Watched it pull thru daily support (blue line) and H4 support (green line), hit the TP just before the H1 support line.
Hi Phx62,

I want to ask about the way you determine your TP. And do you set the target initially or close it manually while you analyze the market movement (also regarding S/R)? I saw you can take most of the profit before the price bounce back.

Referring to X-man ratio TP:SL is 1:1, 2:1 or 3:1.. in this case i think you are getting about 2:1 or nearly 3:1 but how to determine which ratio will work for a setup. I use 1:1 most of the time....

Thank you.
  • #8,404
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:59am Sep 5, 2012 1:59am
looking at AU, GU and NU... all bearish...
now looking at EU H4 if TL if it will close below TL and 1.2520.

look for continuation setup ....for SELL or add-on position.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,405
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:10am Sep 5, 2012 2:10am
EU beware of spike up!

seeing the H4 price candles since yesterday, can you imagine where all the sellers have their stops?
many trail by ATR(H1) and ATR (H4) ...multiply x times.

so I will expect at any time a spike up by professional money.

Trade with caution.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,406
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:18am Sep 5, 2012 2:18am
Thanks for reminding EU spike up. 1.2510 reached.
  • #8,407
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:36am Sep 5, 2012 2:36am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EU beware of spike up!

seeing the H4 price candles since yesterday, can you imagine where all the sellers have their stops?
many trail by ATR(H1) and ATR (H4) ...multiply x times.

so I will expect at any time a spike up by professional money.

Trade with caution.
You saved me big time. I had put a 15pip trailing stop which would have been hit had I missed your advise. Thanks a lot!!!!
  • #8,408
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:40am Sep 5, 2012 2:40am
Quoting johNal
You saved me big time. I had put a 15pip trailing stop which would have been hit had I missed your advise. Thanks a lot!!!!
that wasn't the nasty type of spike ...
expect something up to 1.2550 to 1.2575...
the worst kind of spikes is yet to come...be prepared.... learn to stay away if you are trading higher TF like H4.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,409
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:00am Sep 5, 2012 4:00am
As Tokyo market will close in fw minutes,... price pullback for several pairs.
Will the seller interest remain strong till US open?
It remain to be seen how this current H4 candle will close...3 more hours to go.

It will take at least 2 H4 candles to see a bullish reversal, until that happens, it is still SELL mode.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,410
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:25am Sep 5, 2012 4:25am
Attached are 4 types of Heiken Ashi. Can you spot the difference??

Synergy APB bars use a "slightly" different calculation, just like each of the attached charts.

The differences are so minor that the vast majority of traders would not notice the difference, it has to be pointed out to them as per the links in previous posts.

Do not get caught up in which HA does what, just stick one type on your chart and stick with it, they all do basically the same. None of them are going to make you richer, only you can do that.

My gripe is, by calling something by other names it causes confusion for those just coming to trading, by all means, if some one reinvents the wheel then they should put their identity to it and we shouldn´t call it a wheel anymore lets call it a "Smoothed Box"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HA 4 types.png Size: 45 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #8,411
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:46am Sep 5, 2012 4:46am
Hi all S3 traders,

I took this AUD/USD short setup on the first candle of LO.

My consideration are:
- previous 2 bar: TDI bounce back
- last bar: strong bearish APB, price below EMA5 & EMA60
- H4: price below the uptrend shi channel (consider there will be trend change?)

What make me unsure:
- previous bar: TDI near 32, price can't break support S1
- current bar: TDI green line cross below 32, this will be the 3rd bar from the bounce back signal

Finally it broke support S1 and profit about 20 pips. I set the TP:SL 1:1 around 30 pips. Before it hit TP, price move to other direction.

Did i take a valid entry? If it was valid, what is the better way to decide manual exit before the price bounce back to upside?

Need some enlightenment.... Thank you...
Attached Image
  • #8,412
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:54am Sep 5, 2012 4:54am
Hi everyone,

What do you guys say when the current blue candle close above the 200EMA with the TDI cross up from 32 region?

LONG? or wait?

Regard,
wqiang
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd 050912 H1.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #8,413
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:08am Sep 5, 2012 5:08am
Quoting Wqiang
Hi everyone,

What do you guys say when the current blue candle close above the 200EMA with the TDI cross up from 32 region?

LONG? or wait?

Regard,
wqiang
I say 'bullish engulfing candle' ...maybe good for 20~30pips.

but I am in Sell mode.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,414
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:15am Sep 5, 2012 5:15am
Quoting emmanuel7788
I say 'bullish engulfing candle' ...maybe good for 20~30pips.

but I am in Sell mode.
Haha. Alright then let the price go up 20~30 pips before coming down according to ur plan Win win situation
  • #8,415
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:30am Sep 5, 2012 5:30am
Quoting Wqiang
Haha. Alright then let the price go up 20~30 pips before coming down according to ur plan Win win situation

wait and see how far it goes up to 1.2550 ... 1.2575
sell again on M15 TDI cross down, price close below M15 PAC.
that's my game plan to add one more position
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,416
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:44am Sep 5, 2012 5:44am
40 pip CT. Tooke this on the 15 min, more info.There were so many things saying YES. Now I will wait and see if it comes back down. Pin bar formed on the 4 hr, so we will have to wait and see.

Explanations on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CT.png Size: 47 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #8,417
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:44am Sep 5, 2012 5:44am
Which EMA do you use in M15 eur/usd trade?
  • #8,418
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:50am Sep 5, 2012 5:50am
Quoting tsipouro
Which EMA do you use in M15 eur/usd trade?
I think he use 89 EMA.
  • #8,419
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:52am Sep 5, 2012 5:52am
Quoting tsipouro
Which EMA do you use in M15 eur/usd trade?
Coloured one is 89 and yellow is 200
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #8,420
  • Sep 5, 2012 6:13am Sep 5, 2012 6:13am
this is just going to dribble about until the NY open, with that Pin bar on the 4 hr no one is going to do much, and there is no news to kick start anything, I´m going for lunch. If I´m wrong and all hell breaks loose because some one leaks the story that Draghi has been blowing Bernanke then so be it.

Aproveche
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
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