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AUD/USD

  • #52,061
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:11pm Sep 4, 2012 8:11pm
Price touched the exact pip level that the previous 4h bar opened on 7/24. My gut is telling me a retrace to 1.05 is in the works. Though, price may continue down to 1.012. What to do...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,062
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:31pm Sep 4, 2012 8:31pm
GDP in at .6, weaker than expected. Looking like we're heading on down before the ECB in a couple of days. Tech bounce is still possible though I suppose as per Gnarly's chart and etc.
  • #52,063
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:45pm Sep 4, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting Cdm
GDP in at .6, weaker than expected. Looking like we're heading on down before the ECB in a couple of days. Tech bounce is still possible though I suppose as per Gnarly's chart and etc.
bad gdp but mkt not moving accordingly, i dont understand dat. sold at 1.02010 and mkt dropped abt 20pips only. i guess it was priced in already in d earlier down move.
  • #52,064
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:47pm Sep 4, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting mamalujo
bad gdp but mkt not moving accordingly, i dont understand dat. sold at 1.02010 and mkt dropped abt 20pips only. i guess it was priced in already in d earlier down move.
Indeed, strong support just under where we are. Bounced right off it on the announcement.
  • #52,065
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:52pm Sep 4, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting mamalujo
bad gdp but mkt not moving accordingly, i dont understand dat. sold at 1.02010 and mkt dropped abt 20pips only. i guess it was priced in already in d earlier down move.

1st quarter GDP was revised up 0.1 to 1.4 which gave a yearly figure of 3.7 - bang on consensus .
  • #52,066
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:55pm Sep 4, 2012 8:55pm
quote jplazard "Here is the chart of all charts to shut down the bull argument..We are trading exactly at the 50% from the 6/1 bottom to the high recently made"

Whilst I agree we are in downtrend I must be missing something as in round figures the 96c low and 1.06 high mean 50% would be 1.01 not current level around 1.02. Sorry if this is something explained on your chart, I often find the charts hard to read on my screen (even when I click on them to see bigger), which is why I always like it when people mention key levels in their post as well.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,067
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:56pm Sep 4, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting mamalujo
bad gdp but mkt not moving accordingly, i dont understand dat. sold at 1.02010 and mkt dropped abt 20pips only. i guess it was priced in already in d earlier down move.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post5984804

The charts shows a demand zone. A very strong zone that hasn't been visited since July.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,068
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:59pm Sep 4, 2012 8:59pm
quote GnarlyPips "Price touched the exact pip level that the previous 4h bar opened on 7/24. My gut is telling me a retrace to 1.05 is in the works. Though, price may continue down to 1.012. What to do..."

Firstly apologies as I have appreciated several of your insights in the past but not said so. On this occasion however I disagree, at least in the size of a retrace if it happens. My experience says that 300 pip retraces are very rare in a downtrend and I'd expect unlikely when we are only around 400 pips in. For me if price hit 1.05 then we would be range trading which I don't believe to be the case - refer jplazard posts as he says it better than I as to why.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,069
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:03pm Sep 4, 2012 9:03pm
have it in my head that jplazard mentioned something about GDP and looking at something beyond the headline number but I can't remember what and can't find the post.....
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,070
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:05pm Sep 4, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting dab
quote GnarlyPips "Price touched the exact pip level that the previous 4h bar opened on 7/24. My gut is telling me a retrace to 1.05 is in the works. Though, price may continue down to 1.012. What to do..."

[color=black][font=Verdana]Firstly apologies as I have appreciated several of your insights in the past but not said so. On this occasion however I disagree, at least in the size of a retrace if it happens. My experience says that 300 pip retraces are very rare in a downtrend and I'd expect unlikely...
Price has been ranging for around a year, imo. EMA's have been getting tighter on the Daily.

Edit: thank for the appreciation, though!

Edit2: Not to say that price will go to 1.05. There's other demand zones that can be visited. (Just that it could)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyyearrangeaudusd.png Size: 41 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,071
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:11pm Sep 4, 2012 9:11pm
[quote=GnarlyPips;5984888]Price has been ranging for around a year, imo. EMA's have been getting tighter on the Daily.

Excellent point & chart example with the EMA's. I guess like many things it comes back to your timeframe. I try to use longer (daily, weekly) timeframes for big picture and medium term (4hr, 1hr, 15min) for more recent trends. Thus when I say current downtrend I'm talking about those medium term charts but can definitely see your point.

Sidethougt: with EMA's getting tighter on the daily will we see a breakout sometime in the not too distant future?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,072
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:13pm Sep 4, 2012 9:13pm
Quoting mamalujo
bad gdp but mkt not moving accordingly, i dont understand dat. sold at 1.02010 and mkt dropped abt 20pips only. i guess it was priced in already in d earlier down move.
That's anything but bad gdp, it's in line with expectations and 3.7% growth annually is by far the best of most western economies in the world.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,073
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:16pm Sep 4, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting stulic
That's anything but bad gdp, it's in line with expectations and 3.7% growth annually is by far the best of most western economies in the world.
by bad i mean in comparison with forecast.
  • #52,074
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:18pm Sep 4, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting mamalujo
by bad i mean in comparison with forecast.

3.7 y/y WAS the forecast .
  • #52,075
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:20pm Sep 4, 2012 9:20pm
[quote=dab;5984900]
Quoting GnarlyPips
Price has been ranging for around a year, imo. EMA's have been getting tighter on the Daily.

Excellent point & chart example with the EMA's. I guess like many things it comes back to your timeframe. I try to use longer (daily, weekly) timeframes for big picture and medium term (4hr, 1hr, 15min) for more recent trends. Thus when I say current downtrend I'm talking about those medium term charts but can definitely see your point.

Sidethougt: with EMA's getting tighter on the daily will we see a breakout sometime in the...
I don't know why it seems like you're tryping the quote coding, but you know there's a button you can press? Just curious.

Do you look at the monthly? There's been some inside bars on quite a few of the pairs, in which I've looked on some of the pairs and it's the very first one in the existence of the pair.

On the breakout, if we do go to 1.05, then it is possible for a breakout to happen sooner than if price did keep going down to about ~.974. Shoot, something similar to EurChf could end up happening, but I highly doubt that. If we do breakout south from 1.05, then I can see price going down to ~.65 on the monthly. Though, that's a very quick glance and no serious looking done, so don't hold your breathe for that number.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,076
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:36pm Sep 4, 2012 9:36pm
GnarlyPips, it sometimes looks like I'm typing the quote because I am (or at least copying and pasting it). Sorry but seeing as how I'm part time I'm often reading on one page, noting posts to reply to and then finishing reading to end of posts on a different page before actually posting myself. I am aware of the quote button and do use it when I'm on the same page.

I do look at the monthly charts occasionally. I don't understand what you mean by the inside bars and the "very first one in the existence of the pair".

Won't hold my breath on .65 as I can only see those sort of numbers in short to medium term if we have a bad break up of Euro.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,077
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:55pm Sep 4, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Price touched the exact pip level that the previous 4h bar opened on 7/24. My gut is telling me a retrace to 1.05 is in the works. Though, price may continue down to 1.012. What to do...
I think 1.05 is a long shot...

We are now below the annual pivot, monthly pivot, weekly pivot, and daily pivot.

We are also below 55 EMA, 55 SMA, 89 SMMA, 100 EMA, 200 EMA, and 200 SMA. We are currently testing the 100 SMA.

Sure we can expect a small retrace upwards towards the 55 Day MA @ 1.034 but I don't see us moving any higher than that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #52,078
  • Sep 4, 2012 10:05pm Sep 4, 2012 10:05pm
Good point. that Yuan fix that came out weak - last week or so really screwed Aussie and Kiwi...

Cable is raging and these two are in the dumper. Looking for a change in sentiment as well, yet wont trust anything maintained and held 150 pips north for a day or two....

Let's see if the 100 can help... Certainly important on H4
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,079
  • Sep 5, 2012 12:53am Sep 5, 2012 12:53am
DJ30 and S&P500 futures are at critical points prior to London open, 13000 and 1400 need to hold for any risk sentiment to spread through the markets today.
If DJ breaks and challenges 12964 for the third time in two weeks, the Aussie will inevitably tank too, could target 1.0175 and then 1.01 in extension.

Otherwise hopes about tomorrow's ECB meeting and some sort of stimulus could mean the lows for this week have been touched today at 1.0188.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,080
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:49am Sep 5, 2012 1:49am
God I hope this continues tanking... a entry at 0.95 or lower again would be amazing...
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