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  • #8,901
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:30pm Sep 4, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Robot Trader
(...)
I am thinking we will still go lower, I believe the Sharks will want to takeout a few SL's to give liquidity before taking PA up to 1.04
Maybe you are right.
Although I see it inversely: Sharks did their job yesterday tricking the bulls into a trap but they didn't bite the bait much.
So we're stalling.
  • #8,902
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:02pm Sep 4, 2012 6:02pm
Quoting doblece
I understand you perfectly as this is how I have mostly been trading since late 2008, and the "only" safe way (in my own humble opinion) to handle the markets' turmoil without much stress. Since then growing little by little, but steadily, as it is a totally manageable situation.

Spotting the right range is sometimes tricky, though. And waiting for the best possible timing as well. But the markets are ALWAYS in an almost perfect range, though not horizontally. And with ranges within ranges. And in 3D.

About the questions you...
I like your chart which shows the bigger picture very nicely and I now see your term "fandango" relates to a range bound zone.

I am glad to see that you also trade divergence and I hope that we can share our points of view. I tend to trade it in 3 main ways either by itself or in conjunction with Harmonics/Bollinger Bands.

Once I see divergence building the hard part is sitting on my hands and letting it build stronger and stronger, because one nether knows what is going to trigger the correction and the correction can be a much stronger and quicker move than the building process. So I will enter small lots to start with and add to them the deeper the divergence takes me, in this way my first TP is my first EP, but over time I do expect PA to return to where I first spotted the divergence forming.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,903
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:10pm Sep 4, 2012 6:10pm
Are we heading to 1.0190 ??
  • #8,904
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:36pm Sep 4, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting doblece
Last chart for today ... promise!

Attachment
Not sure if this chart is directed at me, but when I mention a 1000 to 1500 pips I only mean I expect the market not to move more than this amount from the point of where the divergence started to show itself (on the Daily). I would further add that in most cases 500 pips would be a realistic average, but ones position size must be able to cope with the unexpected.

Your chart shows moves of 3000 pips, but the market can move these amount of pips quite easily and it might be therefore that the first 2000 pips of that move was while the market was in convergence and only the last 1000 pips of the 3000 was in divergence. So for me the main thing to look for is did the last 1000 pips of the 3000 pips move return to the 2000 pip zone?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,905
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:38pm Sep 4, 2012 6:38pm
Today's possible targets

Attached Image


the ones that have been crossed out were the ones that were hit/broken already

note that we have several similar numbers from different TFs

1.0197 - 1.0198
1.0182 - 1.0185
1.0142 - 1.0148 - 1.0155

Good luck
  • #8,906
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:50pm Sep 4, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting irfandbl
Today's possible targets

Attachment

the ones that have been crossed out were the ones that were hit/broken already

note that we have several similar numbers from different TFs

1.0197 - 1.0198
1.0182 - 1.0185
1.0142 - 1.0148 - 1.0155

Good luck
here's the hs thats been forming since july 13, 2012

1,0210 or 1,0178 could be the neckline or start of right shoulder
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auhs.gif Size: 29 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #8,907
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:53pm Sep 4, 2012 7:53pm
Quoting doblece
I understand you perfectly as this is how I have mostly been trading since late 2008, and the "only" safe way (in my own humble opinion) to handle the markets' turmoil without much stress. Since then growing little by little, but steadily, as it is a totally manageable situation.

Spotting the right range is sometimes tricky, though. And waiting for the best possible timing as well. But the markets are ALWAYS in an almost perfect range, though not horizontally. And with ranges within ranges. And in 3D.

About the questions you...
on the investment point of view, if we look at things in a 1 year perspectives, we can make both long and shorts work, but shortings aud will be alittle more painful because of swaps, but good level of shorts will compensate for the holding of shorts, as the unleash of bear are normally quite fast when they roll down the mountains.

i agreed, market has too many noise. Though technical analysis is there to guide us and give us the risk calculation, many a times market has too many noise and crazy stuff, and tend to go against the human's normal thinking, and leverage and emotions is what blows retailer's accounts. fast gain more pain.

longing aud from 0.93-1.02++ and shorting from 1.03 above have been good for aud for these few years. and then waiting for the level to go to it's favorable zone for tp.

i have an account that do a sort of hedging on low swap pairs preferably jpy pairs or usd/cad or even eur/usd and trade on correction when market exhausted, has been very safe/profitable because that i am hedged i am not insane when the market go against me.
  • #8,908
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:10pm Sep 4, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting irfandbl
W1

Attachment
Quoting irfandbl
a quick update of H1,

will 61.8 be enough just like the one we had earlier this afternoon?

Attachment
W1 61.8 (1.0197) and H1 85 (1.0198) just got hit

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: W1.gif Size: 16 KB


- 1.0185 - 1.0182 next?
- Maybe even 1.0155 - 1.0148 - 1.0142?
- Or maybe even one bigger correction than the one we had yesterday? (would love to have this one )

Let's see what Aussie's GDP does to this pair
  • #8,909
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:17pm Sep 4, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting gnomoneey
here's the hs thats been forming since july 13, 2012

1,0210 or 1,0178 could be the neckline or start of right shoulder
Thanks for the heads up, will keep this noted
  • #8,910
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:24pm Sep 4, 2012 8:24pm
@Robot Trader

is this a crab?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crab.gif Size: 16 KB


many thanks in advance
  • #8,911
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:34pm Sep 4, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting irfandbl
W1 61.8 (1.0197) and H1 85 (1.0198) just got hit

Attachment

- 1.0185 - 1.0182 next?
- Maybe even 1.0155 - 1.0148 - 1.0142?
- Or maybe even one bigger correction than the one we had yesterday? (would love to have this one )

Let's see what Aussie's GDP does to this pair
Yesterday's chart did played better on M15 than H1.

It did not close that weekend gap, meaning still weak.

Now I also have a down target approx TP1 - 1.0187, TP2 - 1.0124.

Edit: irfandbl, just realised I took top pages for this page and last page. You can be top again next few pages.
  • #8,912
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:47pm Sep 4, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting irfandbl
@Robot Trader

is this a crab?

Attachment

many thanks in advance
No but its a butterfly and this is a Bat. Remember this? Posted it over a week ago when everyone was calling for 1.06xxxx lol. Yeeaaah boooiiiii
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au daily.jpg Size: 89 KB
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  • #8,913
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:06pm Sep 4, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting foxybunny
Yesterday's chart did played better on M15 than H1.

It did not close that weekend gap, meaning still weak.

Now I also have a down target approx TP1 - 1.0187, TP2 - 1.0124.

Edit: irfandbl, just realised I took top pages for this page and last page. You can be top again next few pages.
Nooooo! You took my top of the page away! Look what you've done, you placed me at the bottom of the previous page!
I'll catch you next time buddy! Hahaha

If it gets there without any correction, than I'll miss the bus, not jumping in right now for sure...

Quoting CNTrader
No but its a butterfly and this is a Bat. Remember this? Posted it over a week ago when everyone was calling for 1.06xxxx lol. Yeeaaah boooiiiii
Oh OK, thanks very much

Quoting tunera


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled-1.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #8,914
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:09pm Sep 4, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting irfandbl
@Robot Trader

is this a crab?

Attachment

many thanks in advance
To better explain why or why not:

A crab cnnot have more then a 618 retrace of the x-a leg and must have a 1618 ext of that same leg for c-d. A butterfly on the other hand will have a .786 retrace of the x-aand an extension of that same leg from 127-1618. Hope that helps.
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  • #8,915
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:12pm Sep 4, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting CNTrader
To better explain why or why not:

A crab cnnot have more then a 618 retrace of the x-a leg and must have a 1618 ext of that same leg for c-d. A butterfly on the other hand will have a .786 retrace of the x-aand an extension of that same leg from 127-1618. Hope that helps.
so the difference between crab and butterfly is the size of the retrace?
  • #8,916
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:14pm Sep 4, 2012 9:14pm
Quoting irfandbl
so the difference between crab and butterfly is the size of the retrace?
Size of retrace and extension here are a couple of pics to help
Attached Images
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  • #8,917
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:17pm Sep 4, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting CNTrader
Size of retrace and extension here are a couple of pics to help
Ahh, OK. Thanks very much buddy
  • #8,918
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:20pm Sep 4, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting irfandbl
Ahh, OK. Thanks very much buddy
Anytime and keep up the great work you are doing here. Its good to see traders trade what they see regardless of bias. Well done and keep up the great work you definately add value to this thread.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #8,919
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:27pm Sep 4, 2012 9:27pm
Quoting CNTrader
Anytime and keep up the great work you are doing here. Its good to see traders trade what they see regardless of bias. Well done and keep up the great work you definately add value to this thread.
Thank you
  • #8,920
  • Sep 4, 2012 10:13pm Sep 4, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting irfandbl
@Robot Trader

is this a crab?

Attachment

many thanks in advance
No it does not have the right ratios that relate to Fib numbers, for it to be a Crab.

I have attached a chart showing the calculations that are done by the indicator, once it finds a pattern it will automatically show it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 30m chart 05 09 12.jpg Size: 109 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
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