Price Action, Pro, And Ichi Trading with 2ndskiesforex

Hey guys...

I was gonna post this earlier before the move happened, but I didn't. But I did manga a very good trade.

This was on the Ichi chart, but I mixed both Ichi and PA. The lines drawn are both key reversal areas and time and wave theory from Ichi. So the chart is somewhat of a hybrid, but anyway turned out well.


I post the before with a comment, then he after.

AUDUSD
In my last weeks market commentary, I wrote about the Aussie breaking the Kijun-Sen and closing below it on the daily charts for the 1st time, suggesting short term bearish momentum should take over. This is exactly how it played out with the pair selling off 3 of the next 4 days while even rejecting off the Kijun. The pair went right to the daily kumo as anticipated and in the process formed an inverted pin bar.

The Chikou-Span has just crossed the price line and the tenkan-sen which paints a more bearish picture from an Ichimoku perspective. Unless the pair gets bought up aggressively from here, pullbacks to the tenkan and 1.0345 can be used for intraday shorts. On the other side, the bulls will want to wait to take longs, either at the current kumo top or 1.0224 before considering longs, but a daily close inside the kumo will add more chips to the bearish stack.



Gold
After consolidating for most of last week vis-a-vis position paring ahead of the Bernanke speech, Gold showed its real colors as it formed a large bullish engulfing bar which was over $45 from top to bottom. I believe this was mostly in response to the Gold bulls thinking more monetary easing is in the pipeline (via FOMC or ECB announcements this week). Regardless, now that the metal has held the breakout from two weeks ago, I'm expecting the precious metal to make higher levels for most of this month and likely into October.

Keep in mind, there are massive paper shorts on the metal which most likely covered on the breakout from two weeks ago. Last weeks $40 gain surely forced more to cover and so the upside is the line of the least resistance. Because of the large amounts of paper shorts, we could see more violent upside moves like last Friday as the shorts continue to get squeezed out of the market.

Bulls short term can take longs on pullbacks towards $1673, and $1651 if it somehow gets there (unlikely next week). I am continuing to hold my longs at $1633 and will keep accumulating positions on pullbacks gunning for a minimum target of $1900 (likely before year end).

Hello Vnfx,

Good question. No, I do not wait for the candle close and then getting in as a method for trading breakouts. It really depends upon the type of breakout and price action leading up to it, along with the levels being broken which determines the breakout strategy I use.

Sometimes it will be a pullback to the role reversal level, sometimes it will be on the breakout, sometimes it will be on a short term pullback during the breakout. So quite a variety and all depending upon the style of breakout.

But hopefully that gives you some ideas to work with.

Kind Regards,
Chris

AUDUSD
Forming an inverted pin bar last Friday to end the week, the AUDUSD sold off strongly today on low volume forming a marubozu candle. In the process, the pair closed inside the daily kumo with the chikou span crossing the kijun line today which further adds to the bearish Ichimoku picture.

With price action currently at the 1.0230 support level I mentioned yesterday, I think this is the last short term support area before more downside. Below this, I'm suspecting losses to 1.0175 and then 1.0100 which is where the Kumo bottom is currently parked.



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EURUSD
Since the Euro ended last week with a false break, over the last two days the regional currency formed an inside bar, while today posting a combo pin bar. What I find interesting about these two is how the last two bars are contained within the larger bar from Friday, particularly inside the rejection area of Friday's price action.

To make this more interesting is how the close today was just below the Friday close, communicating possible downside pressure in the short term. From a daily chart perspective, there may still be some bulls who will look at this opportunity to form a higher low and squeeze the bears out.

Although I favor the former scenario a little more, the latter is possible. However, considering the upcoming ECB meeting this Thursday, we'll likely see more consolidation so range plays should dominate. Short term, bears can sell just near the days highs with stops just above 1.2650 targeting 1.2565 for good R:R. Bulls will meanwhile want to wait for a breakout above the 1.2650 are before adding longs, or wait for a corrective pullback towards 1.2500 before stepping in.



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EURAUD
Today the EURAUD has formed a daily close and Kumo Break (to the topside) for the first time in exactly two months Virtually all Ichimoku components are bullish with the chikou having crossed the price line, tenkan above the kijun, the kumo break, thus the only things left are for the tenkan and kijun to pierce through the kumo along with the chikou as well.

Regardless, this bull run for the EUR v. AUD is impressive to say the least, as it has climbed 15 of its last 18 days all the while staying within a tight channel, so the climax hasn't come yet.

At the moment, price is sitting at a key role reversal level just under 1.2400 (June swing low). With a flat top kumo parked just below current levels, bulls can take a pullback towards here (1.2236), or wait for a breakout pullback setup above 1.2400.



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AUDUSD
Taking a more quantitative approach to the Aussie today;
After selling off 13 of the last 19 days and shedding 450pips in the process, the Aussie took back almost three days of losses with an impressive bullish engulfing bar. This is the fifth largest bull bar on an open to close basis for the year.

To date, we've only had three other bullish engulfing bars opening below the 20ema this year. Out of those three, two of them were followed by bear days. If the history and the numbers have their way, today will be a bear close.

Intraday pullbacks to the 1.0250 former range resistance area could be a solid location for short term bulls to take another jab at the 1.03 highs today. Bears can look to sell around 1.0330 on weakness, which is the daily 20ema and July 5th swing high, but there are price action plays for both sides here.



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Gold
Gaining for the 3rd week in a row (only 2nd time this year), the precious metal took out the $1700 barrier for the first time since March this year, gaining almost $35 on Friday alone. I suspected short covering on the initial structural breakout back at $1633 and the metal has not disappointed since. That plus the likely accumulation building over the summer will continue to underpin the metal.

I've been long since $1633 and am still holding this position, along with adding several positions along the way. Bears have near term resistance at $1752 and $1786-$1800, but beyond that, there isn't much resistance until $1873.

Bulls can look for price action setups on pullbacks towards $1700, $1676 and $1651 if it can get there.



EURAUD
Last Wednesday, I talked about the Bullish Kumo Break for this pair on the daily charts, which was its first daily close since June 5th above the Kumo. Although all the Ichimoku signs were bullish, I suggested looking for longs on a pullback to the kumo flat top just below at 1.2236. Price action then formed a bearish 2bar reversal setup that went right towards the kumo top.


Price action on the next day literally stopped at 1.2232 and then reversed 104pips to close the week. Many of our Ichimoku Traders got in on this setup with over 3:1 reward-to-risk so hopefully you profited on this as well.


The tenkan is continuing to rise so should offer support on pullbacks, but the pair will have to clear the 1.2400 before adding new bulls. For now, the 1.2232-1.2400 range should dominate so look for clues off these levels.

EURJPY
Hey Traders,

Check out this inside bar setup on the daily charts.



If price heads back to this level in a corrective/weak manner, then I will look for price action setups around the 99 level (former resistance, now support) to get in with trend, targeting the breakout highs of 100.30 offering a solid reward-risk play.

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AUDUSD
After closing below the daily Kijun back in late August, the ensuing sell-off stopped midway into the kumo. It has since then become extremely impulsive (bullish), with the last 4 days reversing and taking out the last 9 days of selling pressure. This is signaling strength by the bulls and that they have retaken control of the pair. They will now likely attempt to take out the 1.0600 highs.
From an ichimoku kinko hyo perspective, when a dominant trend pulls back but only gets partially into the kumo (then breaks back above), it usually leads to another leg up. This leg up often forms a new bullish tenkan-kijun cross signal (in this case, likely medium). When these do form, they usually at a minimum hit the prior SH (swing high) which is around 1.0600.

The chikou has already crossed back above the kijun and may take out the tenkan and price line in one shot should the bullish momentum continue. Using Ichimoku Wave Theory, the pair formed a 7 wave series of N-waves up, and a one-leg N wave down. But this leg down did not take out point 6 in the wave count, so it has not reversed the trend. Therefore, a test of 1.0600 becomes more likely. Should this fail to take out 1.0600, then it should re-attempt to go back down to the 1.0175 swing longs and try to break below the kumo.



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Silver
After two relatively muted days, Silver has sprung to life as the metal formed a large bearish engulfing bar. However, I would look upon it more as a 2-way bar.

Normally bearish engulfing bars can be strong reversal signals, but following a small inside bar, and with this one closing right in the middle, its less impressive.

Keep in mind, this made an intraday high above the prior days highs but then ended bearish on the day.

So the initial upside breakout was a fake breakout and sellers took over while current longs dumped positions. Interestingly though, after hitting the intraday low, buyers came back in and bought the metal on the cheap, suggesting they were willing to pick some up at lower prices with it closing close to the open, suggesting strong 2-way price action (hence the name)

Best to look at it as more of a large one day range. This gives us the intraday options of playing fades of both sides prior to the FOMC meeting tomorrow where Ben and his beard speak. Expect quiet before and volatility after.



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Gold & Silver
Leave it to my good ol' friend the beard - Ben Bernanke....Central Printer in Chief who today went to the printing presses.

As expected, Gold and Silver pulled right back to role-reversal levels before shooting higher on the announcement today.

In the process, they both formed with trend engulfing bars.

Since I'm still long Gold at $1633 & $1696, I'll take any price action pullbacks into $1740 or $1715 targeting $1900 which seems now all but certain.

For Silver, which I'm still long at since $28.36, $31.06 & now $33.00 after today, I'll take pullbacks into $34 & $33 (again) for an eventual touche of the $36.91 & $43.75 levels.

Intraday bulls can take the higher of the two pullback levels & target today's highs along with $35.27 for Silver while gunning for $1791 & $1815 in Gold.

Gold


Silver

I would like to share my experience with 2ndskiesforex.

I started reading, learning and trading the forex market in january 2012. I didnt have any trading experience and like many others I saw an opportunity to earn "quick" money . I started immediately trading in live accounts, I thought demo account was for pussies!! Before I knew it I had blown 2000 dollars in both accounts, I was a emotionally mess .

After this, I said to myself that I have to find a mentor/course. I started searching for different courses and even went to a seminar in London (I live in Oslo, Norway) hoping I would find a mentor or a course. I got surprised, non of the speakers or mentors was speaking about price action. Every single one was talking about an indicator. "if this indicator turns yellow buy, turns green sell" etc. Well, non of them was appliying to me. I could not understand why I was suppose to take a desicion to buy or sell from a lagging indicator.

I was looking for a price action course (hard to find), I believed the key to trading the forex market was understanding price action. So one day I was at FXstreet.com I saw this free webinar from Chris Capre, I liked the way he saw the market. I decided after watching all of his free webinars on the FXstreet.com and reading his artickles to take his course.

What have i learned in 2skiesforex.com ? I will put it this way, what I have learned in the course is worth MUCH more than the price of the course and it would take me a quite a while to describe it (especially the part about one self, mindset). It completely changed my trading and at the same time i learned about myself. What i will say is I have taken the advanced price action course where I have learned (I am simplifying) about money management, trading psychology and bunch of trading methods

I know read the chart like a roadmap! What was, for me, a total "chaos" is now a language :nerd:. I now only trade on the demo account and my plan is to do that for the next four month. I am on my third profitable month

What can I say about Chris Capre? He is an amazing teacher as well as mentor. He is very, very helpful and want you to succeed. I myself havent been the most active on the 2skiesforex forum, but I strongly believe if you are doing youre work, follow his advice on money management, trading psychology and strategy you have no reason to get anything but success

For all of you who would like to learn more about Chris Capre chech out his free webinars (I did that before I purchased the course). You will find plenty of good stuff. I will HIGHLY RECOMMEND 2ndskiesforex advanced price action course to all of you who like to develope to be a price action traders. I should mention one thing. Chris will learn you how to become a profitable but its your responsibility to become a profitable trader. There is nothing called something for nothing, thats the law of the nature/game!

Kind Regards
A.Rahim Jama

EURUSD
Climbing for both 7 for the last 8 days and 7 of the last 8 weeks, the Euro has looked impressive being given the go-ahead from Bernanke and the German Court. With the trend being so strong, I'm really looking for longs. However, the price action is feeling a bit parabolic and climactic at this point.

Usually climactic price action leads to a consolidation or pullback before the next leg up. Thus, I'll wait for a pullback before getting long. Levels for getting long are 1.300 and 1.2933 (or a really deep pullback to 1.2820). On the other side, bears can look for possible shorts on weakness heading into the weekly highs at 1.3167.



AUDUSD
Ending last week gaining for of its last 5 days, the Aussie finished a little weak forming a pin bar pattern off the key 1.0600 swing highs. Looking at the nature of this pin bar, I'm suspecting there will still be a 2nd attempt into the daily pin bar highs around 1.0600.

In regards to this level, I'll look for pullbacks on the 4hr/1hr time frames to take an intraday short off this level. Meanwhile, bulls can look for a pullback towards 1.0533 or 1.0472 to rejoin the uptrend.

Just wanted to again thank you Chris for your great posts here.

AUDUSD
The AUDUSD pin bar setup I had discussed in yesterday's weekly forex commentary came off, pretty much selling from the market open throughout the day, losing about 85pips in the process. Accompanying this signal was a combo pin bar/engulfing bar on the 4hr time frame which was a rejection rejection off the key 1.0613 level and yearly highs.

Overall, I feel this sell-off is healthy as the USD was pummeled last week, needing a pullback before resuming the uptrend. I'll look to take pullbacks around 1.0400 to rejoin the uptrend for an eventual retest on 1.0600 and possible break targeting 1.0800. Bears can look to sell around the 1.0612 highs on a weak corrective pullback.



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Hello Rahim (Bilal),

First off, this was very kind of you to write this and share your personal experience.

I take great pride in my work and hope to make an impact in my students trading so that they can turn the corner and live more of a live they want to.

I am grateful to work with dedicated and passionate students like yourself, and reading something like this makes my day.

So thank you for the kind words.

May all good things for you increase.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hello Traders,

Spotted a pin bar setup off the dynamic support and daily 20ema which you can see below.



This might offer a really good play on a pullback towards the low. If I see intraday corrective price action and weakness leading into, I'll consider a long targeting 1.0500 and 1.0600 for a really good R:R play.

Thoughts?

Kind Regards,
Chris

NZDUSD
Retreating from the recent swing highs over the last 5 days, the New-Zealand dollar formed a large with trending pin bar off a key role reversal level today. It should be noted how the day started off very bearish for the pair, which reversed gains sharply after touching the key role reversal level at .8210 and closed up on the day.

I suspect higher prices for the Kiwi, but am looking for one more intraday pullback to get long. I'll take a buy off any pullback towards .8230-.8215 with tight stops below targeting the recent swing highs at .8350 offering up a nice 3/4:1 reward to risk play so a decent catch out there. Bears can watch .8350 on the intraday charts for weakness to short the pair targeting today's lows.



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EURUSD
After having its first weekly bearish close in six, the Euro ended the week posting an inverted pin bar that is also doubling as an inside bar. It has to be noted a bullish inverted pin bar in a bearish pullback is a failed attempt to rally. However, even though the rally failed, it indicates there is some buying interest off the 1.2920 lows from Thursday.

The wick of the inverted pin bar is near the Thursday highs at 1.3058 so we have an intraday range that needs to be cleared. Intraday players can look for a possible long off the 1.2920 lows while short term bears can short around 1.3058 on weakness. Otherwise, bulls can look for a pullback towards the dynamic support (also Sept. 7th swing highs) at 1.2815 to take a long for a possible resumption of the uptrend.



NZDUSD
After rejecting last week off of .8350 forming a pin bar reversal, the pair has mostly consolidated in a pretty clean range between .8223 (last weeks low) and the .8353 highs so nice plays for both bulls and bears until the range clears. It should be noted the pair formed a dueling swords pattern to end last week so a pullback towards the .8223 lows is likely. If the intraday price action looks corrective, I'll look for longs off the weekly lows along with shorts towards the weekly highs should the intraday charts confirm.