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  • #52,041
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:02am Sep 4, 2012 2:02am
The floor for NY open should come in around 1.0245-40 and from there we should see a pop..If nothing happens after the first two hours of trading then the market is going to wait for GDP...
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  • #52,042
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:05am Sep 4, 2012 6:05am
Looks like the RBA announcement wasnt strong enough to fend off the USD Bulls.
  • #52,043
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:12am Sep 4, 2012 6:12am
Quoting nahman
Looks like the RBA announcement wasnt strong enough to fend off the USD Bulls.
I went long from 1.256 about 9 hours ago, factoring in possible dip to around 1.24, but I'm beginning to regret it now - s/l was 1.23, tp 1.36.
Think I may bail out, but not sure just yet . Sometimes NY will not kick in for an hour or so.
  • #52,044
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:17am Sep 4, 2012 6:17am
Meant to add a/u movements seem to be very closely matching e/u movements today - more so than usual
  • #52,045
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:33am Sep 4, 2012 6:33am
Quoting nahman
Looks like the RBA announcement wasnt strong enough to fend off the USD Bulls.
Wait until 10
  • #52,046
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:58am Sep 4, 2012 7:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post5982478


Well the base came in on time but not the Pop ISM gave a bad taste in peoples mouths.. Looks like the second option is in play batting around these levels untill GDP release tonight.

Here is the chart of all charts to shut down the bull argument..We are trading exactly at the 50% from the 6/1 bottom to the high recently made.. And on a 2 year the ABSOULTE high on AUD/USD and the low of that change also comes in at 50% either we spike on GDP tonight or it is over for bu lls and 1.01-50 will happen very quick.


It's B wave or Break time at these levels
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  • #52,047
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:00am Sep 4, 2012 9:00am
Still no close below from the chart above just playing ranges from the boys upstairs we could be unchanged by NY close from the open here the way that the chop is occuring at the low end.

50% retrace will not go down quickly
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  • #52,048
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:38am Sep 4, 2012 9:38am
I know I've posted my analysis on the AudUsd, I had just forgotten where. Then, I found it!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post5903372

Quote
On the 1H chart, you can see where price dipped down to the 1.045 level, barely missing the 200 EMA. The rally that happened on 7/26 has an origin around 1.0315. If price drops down to this level, it could very well touch the 200 EMA. Added probability. If price breaks this level, then 1.022 is another demand area.
We're at 1.022!

Just realized it was the 100 EMA lol, bad typo
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,049
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:25pm Sep 4, 2012 12:25pm
After a few hours Australian GDP data comes out & it can push aud/usd up or down, is there any idea which direction it will go & why?
  • #52,050
  • Edited 1:32pm Sep 4, 2012 12:49pm | Edited 1:32pm
On the Daily NzdUsd, the 50, 100, and 200 EMA signal that price is ranging. However, the EMA's are higher than half the current run in the picture below. (End of May, start of June) This suggests that price doesn't have much room to move above the EMA's since the TL's will provide resistance, how much I don't know. (It could very well break, so that's why you should protect yourself and form an exit plan!)

Price does have a lot of room to move below the EMA's, I'm my view. The horizontal lines are chosen based on open/closes from swing high/lows, strong supply and demand imbalances, and retraces. (During an uptrend, I only use the swing low open/closes while during an downtrend I only use the swing high open/closes. Hopefully that makes sense.)

I can see a retrace to the TL's. There are three possible levels price could move to, the top three H-lines. I also feel there could be a retrace to the bottom H-lines.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,051
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:25pm Sep 4, 2012 1:25pm
Here was March report that caught my eye:
INDUSTRY GROSS VALUE ADDED

 

  1. In seasonally adjusted terms, the main industry contributors to GDP were Mining (up 2.3%), Financial and insurance services (up 1.7%) and Professional, scientific and technical services (up 2.8%), each contributing 0.2 percentage points to the increase in GDP.

since then the follwoing have happened
*Iron Ore has been in a downtrend since
*BHP has cancelled future expansion plans (they will start layoffs next and their income statement will shift when they report for Q3)


*Fortescue Metals Group Limited will finish thie year's profjects but downgrading the iron ore deposits from forecast in the begining of next year. This will also be layoffs.

Companies like I mentioned can give you an early tell here on GDP even though I (bear) want a B retrace back up this number could be in line which would not be a bull reversal because unemployment is tomorrow

  • #52,052
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:42pm Sep 4, 2012 3:42pm
Im hoping the GDP figures come in below the forcasted 0.8%. This will add greater bearish sentiment. We are expecting a definate fall from last quarter, but below forcast will be even better.
I had a retrace entry at 1.0320, before the cash rate but Im thinking price may not get there.
  • #52,053
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:44pm Sep 4, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting Pipage
Im hoping the GDP figures come in below the forcasted 0.8%. This will add greater bearish sentiment. We are expecting a definate fall from last quarter, but below forcast will be even better.
I had a retrace entry at 1.0320, before the cash rate but Im thinking price may not get there.
i see a retrace as well. just went below my 38.2 fib and buying the bounce till gdp
A man is what he thinks about all day long. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
  • #52,054
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:52pm Sep 4, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting fxrustyspoon
i see a retrace as well. just went below my 38.2 fib and buying the bounce till gdp
at 17:20 est. it hit the fib level then bounced off then hit it again than broke through then back up.
A man is what he thinks about all day long. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
  • #52,055
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:47pm Sep 4, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting jplazard2
CDM,

Thank you for that response not only did you explain the more important issues and reforms they must take but you explained it so elequently. .
Quoting jplazard2
For those number crunchers see the post following this one on COT numbers. I have the spreadsheet to manipulate and run averages going back to 2005 if needed just PM me. For those visual people who just want to see the chart here is PROOF that COMMERCIAL and NONCOMMERCIAL play separate rolls when it comes to rising and falling currency markets.
If they played the same role you would not divergence between net longs shorts between the two types.
[size=3][font=Calibri]Fact:...
Quoting jplazard2
[color=black][font=Verdana]This is the hard data for those number crunchers on COT reports since around the Top July 31..

Since July 31-Aug 28 in AUD/USD here is the Net Longs and Net Shorts Total have increased by (excluding nonreportable):
LONG: 132,885+ 175,089= + 42,204
Short: 137,473+ 184,566= +47,093
Quoting jplazard2
Hello all,

I woke up to an amazing chart the bulls are getting hammered and won't have now given up a KEY level 1.02 is in our sights.

For those of you still not in the bear camp I know there is another thread with major bulls Read the bear map and finally join us you still have time before JACKSON HOLE and September moves lower

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post5959787
Quoting jplazard2
Here is the fundamental reason why AUD/USD will continue to fall…
Quoting jplazard2
CHINA PMI::::::::::
here is the report translated in English.
Quoting jplazard2
sell the pops next week

Quoting jplazard2
Here is my macro chart where we are getting close to a decision time at least for me on taking part of this short off. I will wait till later this week as China is starting to get more headline risk, and I still stand by the statement earlier made last month that September based on Fibo extension retraces and Overbought levels looks to be a down month for equities

As for the Next entry point on a adding to short I am pretty happy with the line taken since two weeks ago and will not add unless we get a Draghi type rally later this week were I...

Quoting jplazard2
Food for thought: The Bear train is heading for some walls
Quoting jplazard2
GDP should possibly come in weaker than expected..I am almost certain Jobs will be a BIG disappointment but since BHP's announcement I figured this would trickle down into more industries

We will see after this week if one cut end of year is the way they will go or two. The market is pricing in Two since last week but that could change on this data.
Quoting jplazard2
Here is the technical picture.
AUD/USD & EUR/USD WHERE THE INVERSE CORRELATION BREAKS DOWN. [/b]
Quoting jplazard2
Since writing this short peice last week on the narrowing percentage yeild between EUR/AUD and AUD/USD
Quoting jplazard
“Some commodity prices of importance to Australia have fallen sharply in recent weeks. The terms of trade peaked a year ago and have declined significantly since then’
[color=black][font=Verdana][size=3]
such a beautiful posts and analysis u had did

a big applause to you..well done
I am watching you now


ps have to quote so many.. cause very interesting and FACTS!
  • #52,056
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:54pm Sep 4, 2012 4:54pm
currently,

expectation 3 days in row Bearish
with highly probably -ve data from RBA

GDP
Employment/unemployment
Trade balance
Attached Image
  • #52,057
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:07pm Sep 4, 2012 5:07pm
FYI

Relevant excerpts from todays ANZ Australian Morning Note ;

 

  1. Australian monetary policy: Each of the Australian economics editors wrote articles overnight effectively arguing that the RBA is getting close to easing rates again. This is despite only subtle changes in yesterday’s board statement. The key developments, the editors argue, were: (i) the AUD is not playing its normal role in buffering the economy from the downturn in commodity prices and global growth; (ii) greater uncertainty about Chinese economic growth, with slower growth in China and Europe affecting growth in the remainder of Asia; and (iii) the beginnings of scale-backs to already committed mining projects, with FMG's announcement yesterday.There is now a very strong risk that the Bank will cut interest rates at the October meeting and, if Chinese data and iron ore prices do not show better signs, again at the November board meeting. Medium term, the pressures remain down for Australian interest rates.

  1. In Australia today, Q2 GDP is released at 11:30AEST. We expect Q2 GDP growth to have been around 0.8% q/q (Market: +0.7% q/q), unchanged from our preliminary estimate. However, for the RBA, these data are a little dated, and a key uncertainty now is the outlook for Australia’s export prices given recent sharp falls in spot bulk commodity prices. As mentioned by the RBA Governor yesterday, recent indicators of Chinese economic activity have been weaker and raise questions about the expected improvement in that economy later this year.

  • #52,058
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:08pm Sep 4, 2012 5:08pm
Nice charts Smilemiz, we view the markets much the same way.
  • #52,059
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:56pm Sep 4, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting smilemiz
currently,

expectation 3 days in row Bearish
with highly probably -ve data from RBA

GDP
Employment/unemployment
Trade balance

You are really really good at EW and analysing the market. You are like the girl version of jplazard. Your posts and his posts are very humbling and show me that I need to study more. You are light years ahead of a lot of traders!

Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,060
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:05pm Sep 4, 2012 6:05pm
ANZ Bank's take on the GDP data to be be released in just under 30 mins time ;



FINAL AUSTRALIAN Q2 2012 GDP PREVIEW
· We expect Q2 GDP growth to have been around 0.8% q/q, unchanged from our preliminary estimate. This would represent growth at around trend. While noting that predicting quarterly GDP outcomes is notoriously difficult and that revisions can be large, our view is that a GDP growth print around trend would accord with a range of other activity indicators (including the broadly stable unemployment rate).
· But the June quarter is now history and a key uncertainty is the outlook for Australia’s export prices given recent sharp falls in spot bulk commodity prices. As mentioned by the RBA Governor today, recent indicators of Chinese economic activity have been weaker and raise questions about the expected improvement in that economy later this year.ANZ expects to lower its forward profile for Australia’s terms of trade, particularly for H2 2012, and by implication growth in real national income.
· While our expectation for Q2 GDP growth is unchanged from our preliminary estimate last week, we now anticipate a somewhat different composition of growth following the release of partial indicators. Our bottom-up expenditure-side (GDP(E)) growth forecasts by component are presented in Figure 1.
o We now expect more weakness in dwelling investment in Q2, while net exports are expected to contribute 0.3ppts to growth against our 0.5ppts initial expectation. Non-farm inventories appear to have subtracted a little more from quarterly growth than we anticipated.
o In contrast, public demand is set to contribute 0.4-0.5ppts to quarterly GDP growth (we had zero pencilled in), and CAPEX data points to a somewhat stronger contribution to growth from business investment.
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