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  • #8,881
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:05am Sep 4, 2012 8:05am
Quoting aeternum
Could you share the excel file?
I've attached the file in my previous post buddy
  • #8,882
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:30am Sep 4, 2012 8:30am
Quoting doblece
There are many triangles in that house. Including the one you imagined (don't wanna know ).

However, the metaphor was: where is the triangle?
On my chart (the small one) there is no triangle on sight, however there is one which I mentioned.

The Girl is in the House.
Can you see the house?
Or just a small part of the inside?

If you can see the House, you'll see windows and doors.
Some are open, some are closed.

Just riddling.
Mama, were you up all night?
daddybearforex. com
  • #8,883
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:32am Sep 4, 2012 8:32am
Quoting Robot Trader
I have recreated your spreadsheet in an older version of excel so no need to do that for me now and thank you for sharing.

I have attached the excel spreadsheet and have highlighted some numbers in different colours because I do not know what they are or how you determined them. Would you please have a look and explain, if I know what they are I might be able to add some more formulas to the spreadsheet to make it more automated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: targets.gif Size: 34 KB


for example let's say H1 is pointing up and targets are calculable (has crossed level 50 stoch)
- Find the lowest price of the candlestick that is vertically aligned with the lowest level stochastic (valley). Put the price in the Low row (B2)
- Find the highest price of the candlestick that is vertically aligned with the stochastic line that has crossed level 50. Put the price in the High row (B1)
- You'll get several numbers in R (D column) and S (E column).
- What you need are the ones in the R (Resistance) column since going north obviously we're looking for Resistances as targets
- Copy paste those numbers from the R column to H1 (G2) column, as for the one in the example are
10218
10204
10179
10153

If H1 is pointing down what you need to do is
- Find the highest price of the candlestick that is vertically alligned with the highest level stochastic (peak). Put the price in the High row (B1)
- Find the lowest price of the candlestick that is vertically aligned with the stochastic line that has crossed level 50. Put the price in the Low row (B2)
- You'll get several numbers in R (D column) and S (E column).
- Since we're heading down so what we need is S (Support) for our targets
- Copy paste those numbers from the S column to H1 (G2) column

Do the same thing for each TFs, don't forget to mark the direction (Down/Up) so you don't get confused with it

As you can see I separated targets that comes from 5,3,3 stoch and 14,3,3 ones

For H1,H4,D1,W1 and Monthly 5,3,3 targets are pasted on the top while the 14,3,3 ones at the bottom
While M30 are located side by side

If you have any further questions do not hesitate on asking me
  • #8,884
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:43am Sep 4, 2012 8:43am
Quoting foxybunny
irandbl, A/U already hit your TP of 1.0284.
Your crystal ball is crystal clear!!

Now do you think is it Long or Short after this retracement below chart ?
NewbTrader7, this is your second chance entry if you still believe it is a Long.
Price has now retraced to (1.0239 - 1.0249), back to earlier Demand Zone and where RBA news starter take off upwards.
If the earlier RBA upmove was a real move, price should now really bounced here, and go up higher from this retracement.

Long entry possible above the up arrow in my below chart, breaking the high...
I C 1.0150
  • #8,885
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:43am Sep 4, 2012 8:43am
Quoting foxybunny
Thanks pauladkinsau.
This is helpful.
So u don't have to work for the Govt to know or use these sites.
Haha, no I have been using them for years, and I can assure you I am not a Government employee.

There's a really good book came out a year or so ago, called "Understanding China's Economic Indicators", by Tom Orlik. Tom is based here in Beijing, writing for the Wall St Journal. His book lays out everything you ever wanted to know about GDP, CPI, PMI, PPI, you name it. A great reference tool.
  • #8,886
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:48am Sep 4, 2012 8:48am
Quoting foxybunny
irandbl, A/U already hit your TP of 1.0284.
Your crystal ball is crystal clear!!

Now do you think is it Long or Short after this retracement below chart ?
It was just a coincidence my friend, I was thinking it could go up to 85% target which is 1.0307, but it seems 61.8% is enough for the correction (or maybe not?). Me thinks that it would do some fandango before we have a clear direction of where this thing is about to go next. But my bet is it's going down (wait till this H4 candlestick closes)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #8,887
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:54am Sep 4, 2012 8:54am
Quoting Robot Trader
Well that little 5M Crab certainly did its job
It surely did mate
Many thanks for the heads up
  • #8,888
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:55am Sep 4, 2012 8:55am
Quoting irfandbl
Attachment

for example let's say H1 is pointing up and targets are calculable (has crossed level 50 stoch)
- Find the lowest price of the candlestick that is vertically aligned with the lowest level stochastic (valley). Put the price in the Low row (B2)
- Find the highest price of the candlestick that is vertically aligned with the stochastic line that has crossed level 50. Put the price in the High row (B1)
- You'll get several numbers in R (D column) and S (E column).
- What you need are the ones in the R (Resistance)...
Sorry I'm still not yet on the same page, I understand how you get the information from the chart for each TF and assuming 11087 = H1 61.8 then in your example should H1 down = 11087 and not 10218? and what is the 61.8 = 10280 in blue. Are these just left over numbers from previous calculations you have done but not deleted? or how do you use the 61.8 = 11087 to get these other values?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,889
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:57am Sep 4, 2012 8:57am
Anyone else entered short ?
  • #8,890
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:15am Sep 4, 2012 9:15am
Quoting Robot Trader
assuming 11087 = H1 61.8 then in your example should H1 down = 11087 and not 10218?
these outputs

Inserted Code
11087    9403
11275    9215
11618    8872
11961    8529
12533    7957
13375    7115

were results of a backtest that I did or should I say left overs, I can't remember what TF or when did I have them, I believe they were accidentally saved with the file. So don't bother about them. The results for 61.8 H1 was the 1.0218, eventually it has changed as the stoch line has created new targets for H1

Quote
and what is the 61.8 = 10280 in blue. Are these just left over numbers from previous calculations you have done but not deleted? or how do you use the 61.8 = 11087 to get these other values?

the ones in the blue were previous M30 14,3,3 targets..since 100 target is bigger than 61.8 so they obviously were the previous up targets for M30 14,3,3
  • #8,891
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:17am Sep 4, 2012 9:17am
Quoting dav7
Anyone else entered short ?
I did when "Franky" did it's magic today, but I'm out already, 1.0230 is one hell of a support
  • #8,892
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:18am Sep 4, 2012 9:18am
Quoting irfandbl
these outputs

Inserted Code
11087    9403
11275    9215
11618    8872
11961    8529
12533    7957
13375    7115

were results of a backtest that I did or should I say left overs, I can't remember what TF or when did I have them, I believe they were accidentally saved with the file. So don't bother about them. The results for 61.8 H1 was the 1.0218, eventually it has changed as the stoch line has created new targets for H1



the ones in the blue were previous M30 14,3,3 targets..since 100 target is bigger than 61.8 so they obviously...
Thanks now I understand, I will look at is closer in the morning. Cheers
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,893
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:24am Sep 4, 2012 9:24am
Quoting Robot Trader
Thanks now I understand, I will look at is closer in the morning. Cheers
No worries mate. Good night
  • #8,894
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:32am Sep 4, 2012 9:32am
Quoting egkid
I C 1.0150
Price did not go up much from previous down retracement 1.0250 and has gone further down to 1.0230, so u may have a better call at the Short instead.
  • #8,895
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:39am Sep 4, 2012 9:39am
a quick update of H1,

will 61.8 be enough just like the one we had earlier this afternoon?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #8,896
  • Sep 4, 2012 10:42am Sep 4, 2012 10:42am
Quoting irfandbl
a quick update of H1,

will 61.8 be enough just like the one we had earlier this afternoon?

Attachment

A/U M15 chart, still prefer Long than Short at this stage.
Too late to Short.

First up arrow show prefer the break of this High around 1.0250 for Long entry, this price still seem to be the key figure for now.

Second up arrow show potential support if this bar low can hold.
Only thing is that we been in this Demand Zone area for quite a few times today, perhaps it may turn to a Supply Zone if the support does not hold.

Now a bit late in the US session, if nothing much happens in next hour, then start again tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-04_AU_M15_Support.png Size: 68 KB
  • #8,897
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:38am Sep 4, 2012 11:38am
Quoting foxybunny
A/U M15 chart, still prefer Long than Short at this stage.
Too late to Short.
I have just realized that today's moves were mainly driven by M15,..I wasn't really paying much attention to M15 today

The first spike

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: first spike.gif Size: 19 KB


==================================

And down it goes

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: downitgoes.gif Size: 19 KB


==================================

Another up

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: upagain.gif Size: 17 KB


==================================

And down it goes again

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: downagain.gif Size: 19 KB


==================================

M15 ruled the day today
  • #8,898
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:18pm Sep 4, 2012 1:18pm
Quote
[ quote=Robot Trader;5982731](...)
The when bit is not really important to me, because I aim for a TP projection based on my skill of understanding divergence. So providing where I enter does not take my account more than 1000 pips in drawdown then I am confident that I will continue to be profitable.

Like I have said earlier in this thread the market moves from convergence to divergence or from divergence to divergence (it never does anything else). So if you know how to read and understand these two elements of the market, trading becomes a lot less stressful, the key is position size and not over leveraging your account, because divergence will not tell you where the tops and bottoms are it will only tell you there is going to be one and from looking back through the daily charts showing divergence this normally occurs within 1000 to 1500 pips from where the divergence started to build and then PA always returns to where the divergence first started.

I understand you perfectly as this is how I have mostly been trading since late 2008, and the "only" safe way (in my own humble opinion) to handle the markets' turmoil without much stress. Since then growing little by little, but steadily, as it is a totally manageable situation.

Spotting the right range is sometimes tricky, though. And waiting for the best possible timing as well. But the markets are ALWAYS in an almost perfect range, though not horizontally. And with ranges within ranges. And in 3D.

About the questions you asked earlier and my subsequent reply, it all will depend on which time frames you are looking at for the whole picture. Anyway I am attaching a 4X zoomed view of the charts to explain "fandango zone".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4xzoom.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #8,899
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:08pm Sep 4, 2012 2:08pm
Last chart for today ... promise!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1000pips.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #8,900
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:23pm Sep 4, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting spekitox
Yeah, all of these have a probability greater than zero. There are pros and cons - that is why decision making can be tough. Good that we're not in a hurry.

By the way ma'am, are you selling ladders?
I've got one, bought it cheap though ... so unless it breaks I don't know if I'll have to sell it in pieces as replacement parts ...
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