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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,861
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:09am Sep 4, 2012 3:09am
Al, what about EURUSD short? I mean... obsiousely hopes are driving the long to the extreme. Reality is completely opposite, but price just won't drop. Regardless of what we think or what the big boys are doing, PA and trend is up.

Personally, I was expecting to see 1,2370 or lower by now. This only shows, that any kind of expectations are irrelevant. Only PA counts.

BR
  • #12,862
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:07am Sep 4, 2012 4:07am
Quoting tp0440
Al, what about EURUSD short? I mean... obsiousely hopes are driving the long to the extreme. Reality is completely opposite, but price just won't drop. Regardless of what we think or what the big boys are doing, PA and trend is up.

Personally, I was expecting to see 1,2370 or lower by now. This only shows, that any kind of expectations are irrelevant. Only PA counts.

BR
I have a small short position on EU and I´m holding it, but will not add to it since the D1 and H4 TMAs are Buy only.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,863
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:59am Sep 4, 2012 4:59am
Here's what it looks like today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily scanner, slope strenght and values.jpg Size: 130 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,864
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:02am Sep 4, 2012 6:02am
I'm not trying to confuse anyone but I'm still using the older system of 56 period and this is what i see on my charts right now :

EN = H1+ H4 Over D1 upper band, slope still bullish on the 3 TF.
EU = Slope turned back to negative territory on D1 and ranging on H4 and H1 , H1 + H4 bands near but under the upper D1 band.
GU = 3 Slopes ranging ( under 0.4 ) and going down, H1 + H4 bands near the upper D1 band but under it.
UJ = 3 Slopes are ranging, H1 + H4 bands in the middle of the D1 band .
UCHF = 3 slopes ranging and heading up, H1 + H4 bands near the bottom of the D1 band but over it.
UCAD = H1 slope in sell zone going up, H4 and D1 ranging and going up, H1 + H4 BANDS near the D1 bottom band but over it and H1 crossing upward the bottom of the H4 lower band.

All indicators are 56 period and ATR = 2.5

Have fun.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,865
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:49am Sep 4, 2012 6:49am
Super Risk events for this fresh week ?

Tue 4th Sept @ 14:00GMT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 5th Sept @ 09:30 GMT – German Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Thu 6th Sept @ 08:30 GMT – Spanish Bono Auction
Thu 6th Sept @ 11:45 GMT – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 6th Sept @ 12:15 GMT – US ADP Non-Farm Private Employment
Thu 6th Sept @ 12:30 GMT – ECB Press Conference starring (Super) Mario Draghi
Thu 6th Sept @ 12:30 GMT – US Jobless Claims Report
Thu 6th Sept @ 14:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 7th Sept @ 12:30 GMT – US Official Non-Farm Employment & Unemployment rate.

An-overview-of-the-euro-crisis, Very Interesting .

Today we get to stick a thermometer in the US manufacturing sector as we get to see what kind of numbers they release. The ISM Manufacturing PMI data is due out at 14:00 GMT and the economists expectations are for a round number of 50.0 vs 49.8 last time. A strong number here may help unwind some of the USD shorts, but it is more likely that the market will wait to see the Jobless claims numbers and official NFP on Friday before deciding which way to take this.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,866
  • Edited 10:17am Sep 4, 2012 9:42am | Edited 10:17am
  •  Jep
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Creating Multi-Generational Wealth | 99 Posts
Not that anything is written in stone, but in the current environment what is a typical number of valid H1 trades per pair over a given time frame (such as per month or week)? I don't want to be too intense looking for something that is not there. My guess is 1-2 really nice set ups, per pair, per week?

Thank you for sharing this system and keeping your thread going Al. It is going to be ironic if the one method that pushes me across the threshold into consistent profitability is one that a kind stranger gave me for free!

Jon
  • #12,867
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:32pm Sep 4, 2012 3:32pm
Al, is this what you were refering to a couple of weeks ago ?

Japan plans to cut state spending, could run out of money in a month

Another interesting article:

Federal Reserve has already started QE3, says investor Jim Rogers
  • #12,868
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:35am Sep 5, 2012 5:35am
Quoting Alorente
I feel your trade is valid. You will see for sure by the end of this week. Volatility will increase dramatically on Thursday with the ECB announcement and on Friday with NFP numbers.
Thanks Al!

It seems to me that might have a buy signal on AUDUSD soon, PA already break through D1 lower band (post 1 settings).
I'll wait to see the same on NZDUSD and H1, H4, D1 slope going back into range.
  • #12,869
  • Sep 5, 2012 6:01am Sep 5, 2012 6:01am
Quoting Fable
Thanks Al!

It seems to me that might have a buy signal on AUDUSD soon, PA already break through D1 lower band (post 1 settings).
I'll wait to see the same on NZDUSD and H1, H4, D1 slope going back into range.
EURAUD EURNZD is similar to AUDUSD NZDUSD.But H4 D1 is sell only for AUDUSD.
H4=-0.74 D1=-0.89.I think we will wait for the trade .

Regards.
Fishcoo.
  • #12,870
  • Edited 7:53am Sep 5, 2012 6:10am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting Fishcoo
EURAUD EURNZD is similar to AUDUSD NZDUSD.But H4 D1 is sell only for AUDUSD.
H4=-0.74 D1=-0.89.I think we will wait for the trade .

Regards.
Fishcoo.
That's what I said


Quoting Fable
I'll wait to see the same on NZDUSD and H1, H4, D1 slope going back into range.
I'll also take a look at EA and EN, I have never traded those pair yet.

Regards,

Fable

EDIT: When looking at EURAUD, PA is more than 100 pips above D1, yet slope is really high on D1, H4 and H1. PA break through H4 upper band 3 times. Is there no high probabilities than the PA will go touch the lower band now ?? (I know doesn't respect the slope rule but it's seems interesting to short at this time, no ? I'm only asking as I try to understand which setup are the best one).
  • #12,871
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:38am Sep 6, 2012 2:38am
Hi guys, what are your expectations towards today's news. Most especially ECB conference and Rate? What are the likely things to happen and what should we do?
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #12,872
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:14am Sep 6, 2012 4:14am
Quoting Tess1
Hi guys, what are your expectations towards today's news. Most especially ECB conference and Rate? What are the likely things to happen and what should we do?
Hope GU will finally get down (but we have a nice divergence on the H1 slope)

We can't really tell any thing about what those guys are going to do (with our money...) for the EU, a break of 1,265 should be leading us to something like 1,30 on the down side 1,19 looks like good support some people even talk about a 1,12.

I guess we can only wait and see :/

Best regards,

Fable

ps: I have also joined a dashboard (like bassramy) but with the new settings
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture d’écran 2012-09-06 à 11.05.30.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture d’écran 2012-09-06 à 11.11.11.png Size: 72 KB
  • #12,873
  • Edited 5:59am Sep 6, 2012 4:44am | Edited 5:59am
Will This Be a Week to Remember, Or Forget?

It seems like everybody is waiting for the ECB rate decision

Euro Waits at Key Resistance with All Eyes on ECB Rate Decision
Commodities Look to ECB Rate Decision to Yield Direction Cues
Weighing EURJPY and EURUSD Breakouts on ECB Decision
S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap
EURUSD: Trading the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
NZDUSD at Risk Ahead of ECB, NFP- Break Below 7930 To Trigger Scalps
Euro Approaches Two-Month High on Bond-Buying Outlook; Franc Drops
Details of Draghi's bond−buying plan leaked; Merkel firmly opposes unlimited bond purchases
Euro zone's economy heads towards recession

Technicals :

EURUSD Classic Technical Report 09.06.2012

AUDUSD Classic Technical Report 09.06.2012

USDJPY Classic Technical Report 09.06.2012

This will keep u busy until the rate announcement.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,874
  • Edited 8:07am Sep 6, 2012 5:01am | Edited 8:07am
Fable - divergence on H1 is no too much.. but there is also divergence on H4 and RSI.
But today everything depends on news. I think Draghi say nothing special today, ECB is waiting for politician to do some reforms, before they gave them some money. Reforms for politician is political suicide because they must cut employment in administration so lose some voters. It is hard situation because of stupid politics -as the crisis on euro zone .
Stupid politics - debts their own country, to spend not their money, in their own interests - like Ipad for each member of parliament in Poland.

I see on my chart (20 TMA) that on Gold price reaching upper D1 TMA band - it will be HQ trade
  • #12,875
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:27am Sep 6, 2012 7:27am
ECB: Looks like a rumor started on Twitter regarding a fire alarm ...
250. September 2012 15:19:28

ECB: Looks like a rumor started on Twitter regarding a fire alarm
evacuation at the ECB. No evacuation, press conference due to start at
1230GMT as scheduled.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,876
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:33am Sep 6, 2012 7:33am
US DATA: Initial jobless claims -12k to 365k in Sept 1 wk, below ...
250. September 2012 15:30:06

US DATA: Initial jobless claims -12k to 365k in Sept 1 wk, below
370k expected and following a +3k revision to the prev wk. Labor Dept
analyst said there were no special factors and no indication that
hurricane Isaac is impacting the claims data. 4-wk moving avg +250 to
371,250 in Sept 1 wk, while continuing claims -6k to 3.322 mln in Aug 25
wk.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,877
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:17am Sep 6, 2012 9:17am
ECB agrees new bond-buying plan: Draghi.


Draghi Market Response: EUR Down, Gold Down, EU Bond Yields Down, EU Stocks Down, US Stocks Surge
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,878
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:24pm Sep 6, 2012 11:24pm
Good Morning!

I try to get a clue on this System, but for days now, its look like that i get none.

I'am realy appriciated if somebody maybe Al can explain it a little for newbies or at least answering my questions?

First Question: it looks for me, that nobody is used the Original Template that Al has posted to Page one anymore? The most Charts i watched in the Thread do not use it or has at least one other Indicator loaded. e.g. Trix

Is the Template Still valid?

My second Question is TimeFrame Realated.

As Al described the Rule "We will now wait for price to climb above the top band of the H4 and D1 TMAs at the same time, before placing a Short trade or below the bottom band of the H4 and D1 TMAs at the same time, before placing a Long trade."


Is this valid in any timeframe ? Also the the M15 or lower or is there some Timeframe Related variation which TMA is used for proper Indication?

And my Third Question:
Maybe somebody can Post me a Chart or at least point me to one in this Thread, on which shows up the used timeframe and the correct entry conditions so i can get a better clue.

Yes i know, there are tons of Charts in this thread, but i dont find one which also used the Original Template.

I need realy some help to get the basics to jump on the train.

So thank you!
Codeman
  • #12,879
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:58pm Sep 6, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting codeman
I try to get a clue on this System, but for days now, its look like that i get none.

First Question: it looks for me, that nobody is used the Original Template that Al has posted to Page one anymore? The most Charts i watched in the Thread do not use it or has at least one other Indicator loaded. e.g. Trix

Is the Template Still valid?
It's not possible for anyone to follow the system exactly. Everyone will try to tweak it or make it "better", or modify bits here and there "to suit my personality". Whatever the reasons, even if you are given the 100% sure win system, you WILL tweak it to the point where it doesn't look like the original anymore. Don't be frustrated, it's quite normal behavior.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #12,880
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:50am Sep 7, 2012 12:50am
Quoting mmaker
It's not possible for anyone to follow the system exactly. Everyone will try to tweak it or make it "better", or modify bits here and there "to suit my personality". Whatever the reasons, even if you are given the 100% sure win system, you WILL tweak it to the point where it doesn't look like the original anymore. Don't be frustrated, it's quite normal behavior.
Hello and thnx for your Answer. So i give the template a try and at some point of clearification, hopefully if a get them sometimes, i try to modifiy it to what makes me feel more confortable.

But my Timeframe related Question is still valid. So please someone provide me further information.
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