AUD/USD | Page 2602 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #52,021
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:20am Sep 4, 2012 12:20am
First upside target reached...I did hedge a bit upwards as It still does not warrent a full hedge at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-03-PositionStatement.jpg Size: 32 KB




1.0355 Is the next target where we could easily reach and see profit taking.

Those waving bull flages enjoy the short run because once we reach 1.0350-1.04 It will we too windy and blow away.. Many macro funds and retail traders are waiting near 1.0420
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-03-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 148 KB
  • #52,022
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:25am Sep 4, 2012 12:25am
EUR/AUD has had an amazing run we could see a retrace here giving a B wave lower before it continues on upwards..AUD/USD would benifit on this move lower in EUR/AUD.
  • #52,023
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:26am Sep 4, 2012 12:26am
.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-03-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #52,024
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:28am Sep 4, 2012 12:28am
Quoting jplazard
First upside target reached...I did hedge a bit upwards as It still does not warrent a full hedge at the moment.Attachment



1.0355 Is the next target where we could easily reach and see profit taking.

Those waving bull flages enjoy the short run because once we reach 1.0350-1.04 It will we too windy and blow away.. Many macro funds and retail traders are waiting near 1.0420Attachment
Long flags need very strong winds to fly, though very strong winds will tear the flag apart. Some flags may be too long... I've never seen a flag be a quarter of the pole in my life.

Would you ever want your lawyer to bring cartoons to court? If you're building a case, a judge will never consider cartoons as evidence.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,025
  • Edited 1:07am Sep 4, 2012 12:43am | Edited 1:07am
“Some commodity prices of importance to Australia have fallen sharply in recent weeks. The terms of trade peaked a year ago and have declined significantly since then’
-We are now seeing the first wave of this type of statement. Everyone look at BHP and Fortescue metals group they have nixed future expansions for the time being. Corporations historically are better at forecasting economies or their industries because they are the ones on the front lines and know when it is time to draw back or increase expansion. Iron ore is getting hammered as well as other base metals this is not going to reverse overnight
The next wave of this will come when you start to see Employment really take a beating. Look at GDP the ‘actual’ report don’t just glimpse the number and buy/sell of off this because inside you will see a buildup in inventories.


‘Maintaining low inflation will, however, require growth in domestic costs to remain contained as the effects of the earlier exchange rate appreciation wane’
They just told you this can be achieved if one big factor is not appreciating and that is the ER, in essence they have put a ceiling in on AUD and are going to ‘encourage’ a lower rate.. they Will they cut if the jobs number is awful and you start seeing a shift from delayed expansion to more layoff headlines a rate cut is indeed going to happen.
  • #52,026
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:45am Sep 4, 2012 12:45am
Its time to be a bull....now?!! yes now look at the flag...but where...........the flag!!!! I understand but at what price........Ohhhh you can't see what I see

Epic face palm
  • #52,027
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:49am Sep 4, 2012 12:49am
I love it we have moved up -0.14% from the open or less than a cent and the bulls are already saying I told you sooooo!!!
  • #52,028
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:57am Sep 4, 2012 12:57am
Total Respect to JPLazard. Keep the wise words coming. Recently started following this thread and already learning alot from this guy.

Peace Out
  • #52,029
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:08am Sep 4, 2012 1:08am
Quoting Pipage
Total Respect to JPLazard. Keep the wise words coming. Recently started following this thread and already learning alot from this guy.

Peace Out
agreed. I came to this thread a few years ago, and not much TA. JPlazard has brought it to live.

I got on the bull run about 35 pips ago. I am hoping we can get to 1.0325 before I have to make a U turn.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,030
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:30am Sep 4, 2012 1:30am
Pipage- Thank you and I hope I can contribute as much relevant data without going into over curve fitting' lol

Heads Up everyone:::::Just got this 6min ago Westpac Downgrades GDP forecast


Net exports made a rare positive contribution to growth, adding 0.3ppts to Q2 GDP. This largely offsets a 0.4ppt subtraction from Q1 growth.
The net export outcome for Q2 fell short of expectations, reflecting disappointment on exports. (mkt median +0.6ppts, Westpac +0.8ppts)
Export volumes advanced by 2.5% in Q2, following a 0.9% decline in Q1. Import volumes rose by 0.9%, following a 1.1% increase last period.
Q2 public demand: +1.9%. Public demand spiked in Q2, ahead of the new financial year. Demand expanded by 1.9%, well in excess of our f/c of 0.5%. A return to subdued public demand growth is likely from Q3, as state and federal government’s focus on fiscal consolidation.
Implications for Q2 GDP
We’ve downgraded our f/c for Q2 GDP growth to 0.6% from 0.8%. However, we still expect annual growth to be 3.5%. We’re now less inclined to expect a downward revision to Q1 GDP growth, which originally printed at 1.3%.
  • #52,031
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:39am Sep 4, 2012 1:39am
And this is ANZ's assessment of the RBA statement ;


RBA holds rates steady – notes greater uncertainty about china outlook, AUD higher than expected, but policy remains appropriate and does not mention resource cancellations

· As widely expected, the RBA held the official cash rate steady at 3.5% at today’s Board meeting.
· Much of the statement was very similar to recent public pronouncements: growth in the world economy has slowed and will grow at no more than average in 2012, with risks to the outlook still to the downside; policy remains appropriate, with growth around trend, with the Bank monitoring the flow through of previous easings; the exchange rate remains higher than might have been expected. This suggests the RBA is evolving its view of the world more slowly than the markets at the present time.
· The new information in the statement was the acknowledgement that “some recent indicators (in China) had been weaker, which had added to uncertainty about near-term growth”. In contrast, in recent months the RBA was quite relaxed with Chinese growth moderation and the likelihood of a 7-8% growth rate. Additionally “growth around Asia is being dampened by more moderate Chinese expansion and the weakness in EuropeR21;.
· It was also noticeable that there was absolutely no discussion about either the outlook for mining investment or recent cancellations, deferrals or downgrades to projects, though the Bank noted that some of Australia’s major commodity prices had fallen sharply recently.
· Other snippets, though they aren’t that significant or new:
· Some of the strength in consumption in the first half was temporary (due to Federal Government handouts);
· Labour market data continue to record moderate employment growth, even with job shedding in some industries and the unemployment rate remains low;
· Financial markets have responded positively to progress on Europe’s financial problems, though expectations remain high for further progress;
· Activity in Europe is contracting while growth in the US is only modest.
· Overall, our views on the Australian policy outlook and economy are largely unchanged.
We continue to expect the RBA to end up changing its mind about interest rates, probably by November. The disappointing response of the sharemarket today is likely a reaction that suggests the Bank continues to read the economy in a slightly too optimistic way and evolve its view slower than the underlying economy. The current trend to reduced resource investment (albeit more an issue for growth in 2014 and beyond) and the continuing downward trend for job advertising (the ANZ job ads series has now fallen for five months in a row) suggest at least one easing before the end of 2012 and further easing over 2013, perhaps more than our currently factored 50bps in total.
  • #52,032
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:44am Sep 4, 2012 1:44am
Quoting Balmain Boy
And this is ANZ's assessment of the RBA statement ;


RBA holds rates steady – notes greater uncertainty about china outlook, AUD higher than expected, but policy remains appropriate and does not mention resource cancellations

· As widely expected, the RBA held the official cash rate steady at 3.5% at today’s Board meeting.
· [b][color=windowtext]Much...
Thanks for the read Balmain Boy!
  • #52,033
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:08am Sep 4, 2012 2:08am
Looks like the Aud/Usd pair is going for a 3 line strike. Well hopefully that is what it is, until I short again.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,034
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:13am Sep 4, 2012 2:13am
Pair,

their could be a follow through on NY open to the upside.this hourly looks more like the scalpers/news traders taking profit wait for another Hourly bar for direction this one is only going to cause chop
  • #52,035
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:18am Sep 4, 2012 2:18am
Just saw that pattern on Google, you are more experienced for sure as it looks on candlestick patterns than I am I think you will meet your target this week as well..
  • #52,036
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:32am Sep 4, 2012 2:32am
I didn't know the term '3 line strike' either but given JP's reference to googling it I did the same. Found a reference to 4 daily candlesticks where the 4th eradicates the drops of the previous 3. If today is day 4 than days 1 & 2 were minor movements (at least in my time zone). Thus assume Pair-me-up is expecting price to continue up for today before dropping, which was consistent with my expectations after RBA but I'm less sure now that price went back to 1.0260.

As I'm predominantly short at present I'd opened a long at 1.0250 which I've now closed as I moved the stop above breakeven when price was over 1.0280. If price resumes upwards movement in short term I'll look for further shorts, if continues down then I'm already profiting and will probably look for a lower long entry.

edit: lower long entry would be for risk management purposes if price does go up in medium term
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,037
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:43am Sep 4, 2012 2:43am
Quoting jplazard
Just saw that pattern on Google, you are more experienced for sure as it looks on candlestick patterns than I am I think you will meet your target this week as well..

Thanks Jplazard. I hope you are correct about me reaching my target this week. !

by the way, I finished the Trading Plan template. It had some valid points in it.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,038
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:51am Sep 4, 2012 2:51am
By the way... for those that are into Candlesticks.

http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm

Just remember that everything isn't text book. Meaning you need to give them some flexibility.

Here is another one that has some candlesticks for the forex market. Remember the FX market is 24/7 therefore the candles might look a bit different than they appear in the equities market.

http://www.fxwords.com/c/continuatio...patterns-.html
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,039
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:59am Sep 4, 2012 2:59am
Quoting dab
I didn't know the term '3 line strike' either but given JP's reference to googling it I did the same. Found a reference to 4 daily candlesticks where the 4th eradicates the drops of the previous 3. If today is day 4 than days 1 & 2 were minor movements (at least in my time zone). Thus assume Pair-me-up is expecting price to continue up for today before dropping, which was consistent with my expectations after RBA but I'm less sure now that price went back to 1.0260.

As I'm predominantly short at present I'd opened a long at 1.0250 which I've now...

This is something I found a few weeks ago. As you can see, you can see the daily pivot points for different timezones and you can even ajust GMT for daylight savings time.
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/03-01-pivot-point
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,040
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:06am Sep 4, 2012 3:06am
Pair,

Thank you for the info i will look at the links candlestick patterns would help me pick top/bottoms better i suspect.

That trading plan is pretty cool what type of trader are you or if you want let me know in skype
38 traders viewing now