RBA Statement | Forex Factory

RBA Statement | Forex Factory

RBA Statement

From rba.gov.au

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.50 per cent. Having picked up in the early months of 2012, growth in the world economy has since softened. Current assessments are that global GDP will grow at no more than average pace in 2012, with risks to the outlook still on the downside. Economic activity in Europe is contracting, while growth in the United States is only modest. Growth in China remained reasonably robust in the first half of this year, albeit well below the exceptional pace seen in recent years. Some recent indicators have been weaker, which has added to uncertainty ... (full story)

Comments / Top
Subscribe

Sep 4, 2012 12:04am

Guys be careful, the Australian economy is in very good shape and interest rates have bottomed so the AUD could be heading North.

It largely depends on commodity prices but seeing that Draghi is determined to fix the Eurozone mess and BB could start the printing presses any day, shorting the AUD at this level could get you in trouble.

IMO

Sep 4, 2012 1:17am

Traderusa

The AUD came down this much because of fear, but the fact is that Australia currently has one of the best western economies and China although important, it is not the only Asian country Australia exports to.

You could be right that the market is weak but this could change any time.
Fundamentals are one thing but often its all about perception.
Draghi or BB only need to open their mouth and currencies move.....

Sep 4, 2012 1:34am

They kept the cash rate at 3.5%, because the slowdown in China is bringing the currency value down for them. They need to keep this tool in their box for later and let China and commodity prices play their hand first on the strength of the Aussie.

Sep 4, 2012 6:23am

The market moves from convergence to divergence or from divergence to divergence (it never does anything else). So if you know how to read and understand these two elements of the market, trading becomes a lot less stressful, the key is position size and not over leveraging your account, because divergence will not tell you where the tops and bottoms are it will only tell you there is going to be one and from looking back through the daily charts showing divergence this normally occurs within 1000 to 1500 pips from where the divergence started to build and then PA always returns to where the divergence first started.

Sep 4, 2012 5:33am

Some on here talking about a Euro Rebound and how AUD will follow suit you do realize the correlation is very inverse and has been for about 4week right??? no no no Im sorry for the whole year it has been inverse Trust me when I say this EUR/AUD follows EUR/USD and guess where the funds shift out of??? thats right AUD/USD so its not a buy and they will cut rates.

Sep 4, 2012 8:27am

Quoting billv

Disliked

Traderusa

The AUD came down this much because of fear, but the fact is that Australia currently has one of the best western economies and China although important, it is not the only Asian country Australia exports to.

You could be right that the market is weak but this could change any time.
Fundamentals are one thing but often its all about perception.
Draghi or BB only need to open their mouth and currencies move.....

Ignored

so true. all in all, it's the only one real economy, not based on created money but real things, resources. All in all it will go up, 1.1 and higher. Now cuz QE3 expectations it has low potential to fall, maybe parity, negative swaps are working too ...

Sep 4, 2012 12:34am

[quote=Magicgoan;5981903]very good, some data yesterday says different. And watch China, can they keep up there growth, highly unlikely with current situation in Europe. BB en ECB can do all they want if people on the street have no money in their pockets economy wont pick up. Taxes are raised in Europe in all countries this means less spending power for consumers in short and midterm it could well effect long term since bond buying or QE ain't real solutions, we have seen this before. As long as they big boys in suits dont see that they need to make sure their injected money gets to the common (well actually B see its and hinted on int, thats why there is nu QE3) no real growth is expected in the US en Europe and thus infecting China with a slow down.[/quote

you are right, it can't fake for long, reality is in front of them. Everybody pretends that nothing wrong, to make them look good, when ordinary folks don't have money, they will not spend, period.

Sep 4, 2012 12:15am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

LOL, am already short on most AUD cross pairs since 5th August. Watch mondays gap.

Ignored

Good pick but watch out for the U turn

Sep 4, 2012 6:46am

moaf you're the best

Sep 4, 2012 8:08pm

Quoting moaf

Disliked

end of correction ?

Ignored

Who knows what they have in mind?
It is now at 1.02 and waiting for the GDP figures to come out

Sep 3, 2012 11:34pm

Temporary Bullish for AUD,after reach the Pivot,again start the sell in FxWorld !

Sep 4, 2012 6:27am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

LOL, am already short on most AUD cross pairs since 5th August. Watch mondays gap.

Ignored

LOL, I am shorting from 1.0608 (pick), damn how good am I ...

Sep 4, 2012 8:10am

Quoting billv

Disliked

moaf you're the best

Ignored

I know, I know ...

On the other hand, aussie is not falling again (even EURUSD is), end of correction ?

Sep 4, 2012 12:16am

The rally is too weak to go north, it is full of air. Look like it will head south instead north.

Sep 4, 2012 12:25am

Quoting billv

Disliked

Guys be careful, the Australian economy is in very good shape and interest rates have bottomed so the AUD could be heading North.

It largely depends on commodity prices but seeing that Draghi is determined to fix the Eurozone mess and BB could start the printing presses any day, shorting the AUD at this level could get you in trouble.

IMO

Ignored

very good, some data yesterday says different. And watch China, can they keep up there growth, highly unlikely with current situation in Europe. BB en ECB can do all they want if people on the street have no money in their pockets economy wont pick up. Taxes are raised in Europe in all countries this means less spending power for consumers in short and midterm it could well effect long term since bond buying or QE ain't real solutions, we have seen this before. As long as they big boys in suits dont see that they need to make sure their injected money gets to the common (well actually B see its and hinted on int, thats why there is nu QE3) no real growth is expected in the US en Europe and thus infecting China with a slow down.

Sep 4, 2012 12:45am

nice advice !!!

Quoting Magicgoan

Disliked

very good, some data yesterday says different. And watch China, can they keep up there growth, highly unlikely with current situation in Europe. BB en ECB can do all they want if people on the street have no money in their pockets economy wont pick up. Taxes are raised in Europe in all countries this means less spending power for consumers in short and midterm it could well effect long term since bond buying or QE ain't real solutions, we have seen this before. As long as they big boys in suits dont see that they need to make sure their injected...

Ignored

Sep 4, 2012 12:59am

[quote=TraderUSA;5981920]

Quoting Magicgoan

Disliked

you are right, it can't fake for long

Ignored

Well actually it can fake for a long time, internet bubble was a nice fake too. Markets are pretty good in long time fakes, so be careful.

Sep 4, 2012 1:08am — Edited

China, BB, ECB, etc - not where to look (way beyond any trader's means to manage maximally). Still the rally is "weak," and the AUD decidedly bearish to this point (so it will be heavy lifting, turning up). However, in the unitary frame we want to watch the vertical fluctuations within the current unitary bar. It is well positioned to grow north (all we see now is from a bounce off of the current TD supply line by last months bar) and there is nothing to say from this months bar positioning within a positively deviated volatility envelope that it will not grow north (i.e. break above the same current TD Supply line). I would say - watch a while. Though I am already in North until 1.03560 from 1.02259 (the limits North of the current envelope price is fluctuating in). After that we will look at our tools again and recalibrate. If I was a betting man however (from what I see of the unitary bar), I would bet that the AUD has indeed turned.

PS: The unitary bar contains all the fractals possible in the month and defines the most important S/R's to watch. It is the mother of all bars in any month. In defining the fractal geometry of the pair in lower frames - it is key.

Sep 4, 2012 3:19am

Quoting NZ pips

Disliked

maybe some light short covering into the MA's,oh look its going down again

Ignored

Hey take it easy - price will fluctuate now and again - won't go below 1.02580 by much before it gets to 1.30560 from calculating it's seesaw volatility envelope. That would still leave it bearish overall - so important to recalibrate at that point to determine what it means for overall price growth of the pair - for the rest of the week at least.

Sep 4, 2012 4:58am

Quoting NZ pips

Disliked

Yes I agree ,was looking to add to short if price reached 1.03500 ,a confluence of resistance .

Ignored

I am hoping that by 1.035 a full rebound will be confirmed. Different strokes for different folks - that's why all the talk of "manipulation" in pairs like the Euro miss the point.

Sep 4, 2012 5:44am — Edited

Quoting jplazard

Disliked

Some on here talking about a Euro Rebound and how AUD will follow suit you do realize the correlation is very inverse and has been for about 4week right??? no no no Im sorry for the whole year it has been inverse Trust me when I say this EUR/AUD follows EUR/USD and guess where the funds shift out of??? thats right AUD/USD so its not a buy and they will cut rates.

Ignored

I hope you are not referring to my post - just to be sure. I do not trade with correlations - I read a market equation based on a polynomial regression tool and using applied fractal geometry determine my moves. I have found that the simple minded tools available to me when I came in as a tenderfoot are mostly incompetent and I have had to adopt more objective and direct measures to trade. My basis of understanding price movements is founded on NLS or what is more popularly referred to as chaos math. So correlations are for me incidental and totally unimportant.

PS: I however see a scenario in the not too distant future where both pairs you mention - could align in direction. It does not have to be for a long duration for certain trading objectives to be achieved (for instance they are currently aligned in the shorter time frames).

Sep 4, 2012 2:24am

maybe some light short covering into the MA's,oh look its going down again

Sep 4, 2012 4:27am

Yes I agree ,was looking to add to short if price reached 1.03500 ,a confluence of resistance .

Sep 3, 2012 11:48pm

sell sell sell

Sep 4, 2012 12:16am

Awesome, how lucky you are !!!

Quoting Guest

Disliked

LOL, am already short on most AUD cross pairs since 5th August. Watch mondays gap.

Ignored

Sep 4, 2012 12:27am

Temporary Bullish

Trader#C7C6

Sep 4, 2012 1:36am

All I can say is our rba is absolutely hopeless and useless. He gets paid way too much and acts as if australia is so strong. ASIC our company regulator came out with a figure that insolvency is at the highest at 30/6/12 and especially in the mining states. The retailers are suffering and ordinary people are suffering. As for unemployment rate, they dont mean anything because if you are not on centre link I dont think you get counted and there is a lag between you get fired and then on centrelink. If economy is doing so well insolvency business wont be hiring like crazy.

As for CHINA not the only asian country that we export too, that is true but have you had a look at all the data out of other asian countries? they are all horrible. Our govt and reserve bank lives in the fairy land. They even said capital growth from mining is so strong and yet the last months or so, so many miners/oil producers are deferred investment.

I love the place but I hate the politicians and the reserve bank. The head of RBA makes over 1.1m even more than US FED and ECB head and how do we justify that?

Sep 4, 2012 2:09am

ON THE WAY BACK

Trader#959E

Sep 3, 2012 11:32pm

rate unchanged. No dovish stance in sight. This could be a turning point for a day or two in the Aussie

Trader#9BE6

Sep 3, 2012 11:34pm

fly

Trader#5933

Sep 3, 2012 11:40pm

mmhhh! not so good for long term, i will be selling after 2/3hrs time.

Trader#5959

Sep 3, 2012 11:49pm

not strong enough

Trader#C83B

Sep 3, 2012 11:58pm

Take 20 pips profit and watch for another event.

Trader#5369

Sep 4, 2012 12:06am

LOL, am already short on most AUD cross pairs since 5th August. Watch mondays gap.

Trader#8DD3

Sep 4, 2012 12:17am

Time for a correction of 1c to 2c back up to 1.04/1.05 to clean out some weak shorts before heading back to 97c

Trader#BE83

Sep 4, 2012 12:31am

no change will be there its neutral affect on the currency...

Trader#8DD3

Sep 4, 2012 3:15am

the next 100 - 200 points are up - not down - then down big time.

Related Stories

There are no posts to display for these settings.

Story Stats

Sep 3, 2012 11:30pm
Posted by
Newsstand

High Impact Breaking

37

7,411
Linked events:

AU Cash Rate

AU RBA Rate Statement