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AUD/USD

  • #51,981
  • Sep 3, 2012 2:59pm Sep 3, 2012 2:59pm
100pips nice We are with you in this boat me a little over 2 weeks. If we get through this wall of data and still trade range/lower parity will be in our sights.


Warning: when your start to see more media both financial and normal talking about the AUD decline that is not good for us bears I have read a cnn reprt...That's right CNN and they are talking after the pair has dropped 3% percent since 1.06 lol we might be due for some slight correction to the Friday close here
  • #51,982
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:03pm Sep 3, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting jplazard2
100pips nice We are with you in this boat me a little over 2 weeks. If we get through this wall of data and still trade range/lower parity will be in our sights.


Warning: when your start to see more media both financial and normal talking about the AUD decline that is not good for us bears I have read a cnn reprt...That's right CNN and they are talking after the pair has dropped 3% percent since 1.06 lol we might be due for some slight correction to the Friday close here

I've been seeing a lot of reports showing how Aud is doing bad, as well. We are close to the demand zone... I'm trying to write the Art of War to be about trading, and I'm still on chapter three, but the reports and CNN or CNBC talking about the hurting Aud could be akin to "birds flying straight up after flying in a straight line." Only now have I come to this realization.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #51,983
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:07pm Sep 3, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting jplazard2
100pips nice We are with you in this boat me a little over 2 weeks. If we get through this wall of data and still trade range/lower parity will be in our sights.


Warning: when your start to see more media both financial and normal talking about the AUD decline that is not good for us bears I have read a cnn reprt...That's right CNN and they are talking after the pair has dropped 3% percent since 1.06 lol we might be due for some slight correction to the Friday close here
hah!

That's nice to keep in mind actually-

but Glenn Stevens should watch out, or he could make it to Anderson Cooper's "RiducuList."
  • #51,984
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:07pm Sep 3, 2012 3:07pm
Now that's a book I will buy you let all know when it's complete and the distribution process and I will be first in line.
  • #51,985
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:11pm Sep 3, 2012 3:11pm
Quoting jplazard2
Now that's a book I will buy you let all know when it's complete and the distribution process and I will be first in line.
Five bucks! Or, as a special promotion for being my first customer, free!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #51,986
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:11pm Sep 3, 2012 3:11pm
watching some of the former RiducuList ones now some are just too funny..
  • #51,987
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:14pm Sep 3, 2012 3:14pm
nice..!! I will put it up with Market wizards, the Alchemy of finance, the desciplined trader and a host of great books i keep feet away in case I need to consult the 'masters'

Speaking which I know its dead today if anyof you want the PFD of Market wizards let me know..(For those who don't know it covers and interviews some of the greatest traders back in the 80's like Paul Tudor Jones or my personal fav Bruce Kovner.
  • #51,988
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:15pm Sep 3, 2012 3:15pm
While we're analogizing though it's worth noting that the China slow down story is in full effect here and the ball is rolling down the hill - without something significant out of Europe or action from the Fed, a little bit of pent up demand may not be enough to halt the roll if the upcoming support is breached, barring a short bounce. The fundamental story remains solid.
  • #51,989
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:18pm Sep 3, 2012 3:18pm
I agree I am especially worried about their bad loans. I hear from friends who I skype all the time that the number is much higher than what is reported. They keep it in SPV's to hide the bad debts (lik us lol) every crash in my opinion has two main elements

Exapnsion of Credit and contraction of Credit..The Chinese are net savers but if they keep having these non performing loans or empty real estate those holding them which are not to farr off at the moment will have to see forcing a crash.. 80% of the world is in contraction or near contraction it is only a matter of time before they come out with a 'big' stimulus...
  • #51,990
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:21pm Sep 3, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting jplazard2
I agree I am especially worried about their bad loans. I hear from friends who I skype all the time that the number is much higher than what is reported. They keep it in SPV's to hide the bad debts (lik us lol) every crash in my opinion has two main elements

Exapnsion of Credit and contraction of Credit..The Chinese are net savers but if they keep having these non performing loans or empty real estate those holding them which are not to farr off at the moment will have to see forcing a crash.. 80% of the world is in contraction or near contraction...
Absolutely. One of the big benefits of that command economy and government grip, they can string out a picture of continued prosperity a little longer than most.
  • #51,991
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:31pm Sep 3, 2012 3:31pm
Agreed. I think personally once German court approvals the fund and elections are over we could see a coordinated action with a lot of central banks at once...Otherwise we will do what we have always done come in when it's at the extreme point and when it is too late.

Personally I see other econ numbers have improved (along w/ market) since QE the problem the fed is facing is high unemployment. But I always question how they expect to lower employment with more stimulus the government needs to get off their arsss and stop making it so expensive to hire employees in the US.

One great thing here on FF is I have met others from various countries who have given first hand experience what it is like over there and if they wish to talk publicly or on here we would be happy to know what the US media does not report on econ data or trade within the continent.
  • #51,992
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:36pm Sep 3, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting jplazard2
100pips nice We are with you in this boat me a little over 2 weeks. If we get through this wall of data and still trade range/lower parity will be in our sights.


Warning: when your start to see more media both financial and normal talking about the AUD decline that is not good for us bears I have read a cnn reprt...That's right CNN and they are talking after the pair has dropped 3% percent since 1.06 lol we might be due for some slight correction to the Friday close here
Haha, that sounds about right. We should do exactly the opposite of what main stream media recommends... As soon as they recommend shorting the AUD I'm going long!
  • #51,993
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:57pm Sep 3, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting jplazard2
But I always question how they expect to lower employment with more stimulus the government needs to get off their arsss and stop making it so expensive to hire employees in the US.
Nail on the head I think.

Next steps for the US should be government/fiscal and not CB based. Clean up the budget, reform the tax code. Corps will spend and hire.

Fed can dish out more QE which will be nice for markets but doesn't do anything structurally, other than giving the Gov. a bit more time perhaps, and even that's debatable in the US with the spending caps etc always bearing down.

You're right, it'll come down to the wire again if left to the Govts. as politically, in the US at least, it's so hard for them to mold good policy into something their parties can stomach.

It'd play like a dull comedy story if it wasn't the global economy at stake.
  • #51,994
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:29pm Sep 3, 2012 6:29pm
I just had a 'VISION' lol..

My short might be in jeopardy here at these levels at least untill we get a 'TRUE B WAVE' from the 1.06 top. I will take off 60% of my short if we fail to break this level lower and some fundi data comes out better.

I will look for re entry again for sure at 1.04xx area as this would be a true B wave location .

Heads up Longs: If you looking for a nice setup with a lot to technical side support this level setting your stop at 1.02 is very attractive. First I would wait after RBA to gives a pop or see what is said and some other data but if we start moving north I will take some of the short off and go into the spot market to hedge at these levels.
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  • #51,995
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:40pm Sep 3, 2012 6:40pm
But if we break below 1.02 its practically over and the bulls from last week if your still bulls give me your address I will send the paramedics to your house immediatly because you fell down and are suffering from a narclepsy attack and what your think is going to happen 1.07 is purely a dream..


Now a short poem: the narcoleptic trader
By: jplazard2
First you were like this then you were like this dreaming about a bull while sitting pretty high up on your stool you woke up and saw the screen and knew your bull was just a..........
  • #51,996
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:41pm Sep 3, 2012 6:41pm
Dream...
  • #51,997
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:54pm Sep 3, 2012 6:54pm
Nothing I love more than a bear move where everyday is a down one, but just in case we get a pop here are the resistance channels from last weeks chart that are still in play this week on the upside.
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  • #51,998
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:58pm Sep 3, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting jplazard2
I just had a 'VISION' lol..

My short might be in jeopardy here at these levels at least untill we get a 'TRUE B WAVE' from the 1.06 top. I will take off 60% of my short if we fail to break this level lower and some fundi data comes out better.

I will look for re entry again for sure at 1.04xx area as this would be a true B wave location .

Heads up Longs: If you looking for a nice setup with a lot to technical side support this level setting your stop at 1.02 is very attractive. First I would wait after RBA to gives a pop or see what is said...

Morning Jplazard,

Lots of good posts and charts as usual. I didn't trade Friday and I didn't trade Monday. Oops.. I did demo trade for fun on Monday to show one of my language students something. As of now, I don't see any clear direction on the Price Action. Last few days, been super busy running errands as well. Hopefully this week, I can catch some nice pips. Also, I have Support at 1.02300 on my H4 and 1.02223 on my Daily.

I think if it breaks support on the downside, we could see 1.02 followed by 1.01690. That is very close to the strong reversal we had back on July 25th,2012 at 1.01729. If this week we break 1.0260 to the upside, my questimate is that we could see close to 1.0349 or higher. Giv or take a pip
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,999
  • Sep 3, 2012 7:05pm Sep 3, 2012 7:05pm
Hello Pair,

Hope you had a great weekend. This week alone for the whole month is when just about all important econ numbers comes out of AUD so if we fail or meet expectations of the ones I am really watching GDP/Unemployment than a cut is is almost certain and parity is in our sights....As for this week it is a stumper I think we could see a rise here and test some upper channels for the C wave down but we will have to wait for Stevens tonight to hint for a cut/high exchange rate talk ect..

As for you levels I agree on your S/R's tonight we could see a pop or drop below this 50% retrace we are bouncing off off sending us to the upper 1.01xxx
  • #52,000
  • Sep 3, 2012 7:21pm Sep 3, 2012 7:21pm
to Tokyo /6A opened up at 1.0228 and immediatly went down to 1.0216 me thinks someone is playing other peoples positions ahead of RBA...
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