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  • #11,601
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:04am Sep 2, 2012 11:04am
Quoting 4rexx
Nicely put sky when fundies are on your side it is good to let trades run. If you check the weekly/monthly AUD and NZD ranges there is potentially a lot of pips to be made, but as you said when price is approaching S&R levels on the higher TF's be careful, either TP, tighten your stops or leave enough room (if you have the testicular fortitude) for price to retrace against you before it continues again. Another small piece of fundies on the side of the weakening AUD is seasonality...

thanks for the paper on seasonality. this one goes into more depth.

Quoting danc
Great no bull SHT Stuff..
thanks. hope you find some of it valuable.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,602
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:27am Sep 2, 2012 11:27am
BEST mobile FX PRICE ALERT SYSTEM

Due to the fact that i work full time i have been looking for an alert system that can notify me on my phone, regardless of my location, when certain price points has been reached.

I tried mt4 smtp system...however, my carrier service limited the option.

I have looked far and wide, i couldnt find one with all the options that i want until 3months ago.

After searching far and wide, i eventually found one that fulfills all my needs with their numerous number of exotics and pairs available.

that service is the http://www.mobile4x.com

http://www.mobile4x.com/index.php

They offer free and paid. I USE THE FREE. I created a gmail account specifically to use the mobile4x services. I set the parameters of my mobile4x account to send the alert to the gmail account...then...i went into the "settings" of the gmail account to "fowarding/imap/pop" and set the mail forwarding address to my mobile phone address. As such, when my gmail receives alert from mobile4x...the gmail then forward the alert from mobile4x as text message to my mobile phone...THis transaction/forwarding/re-fowarding takes between 1minute to 2 minutes. I have timed it repeatedly, it doesnt not exceed 2minutes.

of course, if you are a 5mins, 1mins scalper....just get the paid service at mobile4x.com......since i use 15mins and 1 hour as entry chart....1 to 2 minutes delay is absolutely negligible for me.

Every mobile phone has an email address...it is generally your phonenumber@yourservice provider. You can find more here. That is, if your phone is 666666666. and your service provider is lucifer.com, your phone number email address will be [email protected]. Any email sent to that email address([email protected]) will show up as text message on your phone within seconds.

i have attached below the way i set up my gmail parameters
i have also attached my mobile4x stuff.

Hope i make things clear. With this, i dont have to be in front of the computer or ever worry about missing a trade again. Unlike most alert system....mobile4x has every pairs and exotics and majors possible.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-02_13-59_Mobile4X.jpg Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-02_13-52_Settings.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-02_13-41_tinywords- how to send and.jpg Size: 75 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,603
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:41am Sep 2, 2012 11:41am
Sky,

What broker did you use,how can they provide so many cross currencies...is it that cross pairs all allowed us to trade on that broker ?


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,604
  • Sep 2, 2012 12:07pm Sep 2, 2012 12:07pm
First of all thank you for your vouch. I appreciate it! Also, you've got an interesting FF profile. I laughed pretty hard when I read about your skill set, especially "active measures and countermeasures."
Quoting Skynet
I completely disagree with you. At the end of the day, it is whatever works for you. I need my fundamentals for believing that a market turning points is actually real rather than a technical fake....the most/best money are made by entering and pyramiding from market turning point...
Technical fakes happen all the time it is true, but I believe that we don't really know if it is a technical fake until it is too late. For this reason I trade both sides of the trend when I have valid reasons and leave my stops at breakeven until the market moves far in one direction or the other.
Quoting Skynet
also, i need fundamentals to hold my trades millipede-style for a long time. i cannot do that without fundamentals.
Ok let me clear up what I meant about self-fulfilling prophecy. When a new trend is in its early stages, the published fundamentals often don't support the price action. Only until economic data is being released do the fundamentals officially confirm what the price action has been saying the last few weeks/months. By then it is too late and traders have missed the prime opportunity to position themselves to reap the full benefits of the new trend. What you are doing from what I read is that you are forming educated macro theories with plenty of reasoning that could or could not materialize ultimately. This gives you, Skynet, the confidence to follow the price action until the published fundamental data confirms your macro theory and then you feel comfortable removing your profit target until the fundamentals start to turn against you. Correct?

For example the Turkish Lira:
Quoting Skynet
(a)I look for disjointment between fundamental and market action. e,g. when QE was released the USD was depreciating....and every other currencies was beating the crap out of the USD...during this time i look for currencies that least appreciate against the USD(e.g turkish lira)...when the QE is over....i will wait for the currency to break below appopriate technical levels...then i went long the crap out of it. e.g. USD/TRY
Now obviously you feel confident in your fundamental analysis and have the past results to give you that confidence...and that is good! I just look at it as though I'm not smarter than the market and instead I just opt to follow where everyone else's money is flowing.
Quoting 4rexx
Zusch do you use fundamentals in your analysis, because as we just seen it can also be a major leading indicator?
Hopefully after I have more experience dealing with fundamentals via this thread I will be able to incorporate these macro theories into my own trading.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,605
  • Edited 5:14pm Sep 2, 2012 1:20pm | Edited 5:14pm
Monthly candle reads for September in order of attractiveness.

1) GBPNZD - Long
2) GBPAUD - Long
3) AUDUSD - Short
4) EURNZD - Long
5) EURAUD - Long

Essentially the opposite of last months bias. Why? GBPNZD/GBPAUD had bullish engulfing candles. EURNZD/EURAUD have the potential to form 3 bar reversals b/c last months action pierced, and closed above July's 61.8% retracements.

AUDUSD is coming into a monthly trendline and the bounce off 1.05 median line is pretty clear. This pair also closed below July's 61.8% retracement.
Edit: Actually closed just above 50% retrace from July. Sorry for the mistake. I still like the looks of that candle though.

Here are my monthly candle reads from last month:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post5891558
GBPNZD/GBPAUD formed more bullish candles than EURNZD/EURAUD last month. I believe it is because the market also had the opinion that the EUR pairs were weaker, justifying last months rankings even though they were ultimately incorrect.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,606
  • Sep 2, 2012 6:58pm Sep 2, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting kamifx
Monthly Analysis:

At the end of the last Month I predicted the levels of trading for EURUSD and 80% of T/Ps were touched now for USDCHF the level of trading:
Just to remind you that different E/P is for those who will miss each entry point and must wait for better level for opening position
Max Up Trend 0.9720 above this level change the trend for short time.
Sell Position:0.9670
T/P=0.9620
Sell Position:0.9585...
For Those who missed the 1st and 2nd Sell Position , the 3rd level is going to be activated this week after correction trend.

Just Remember,Forex Leaders are playing with traders so you have to find out their trick and understand how they play this game before losing any money
never trust to News, Most Analysis, Reports, ....
Just Trust Yourself and Open Position At
Strong Level

Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,607
  • Sep 3, 2012 12:22am Sep 3, 2012 12:22am
scanning for LOB trades...anybody seen any?
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,608
  • Sep 3, 2012 2:06am Sep 3, 2012 2:06am
Quoting Skynet
scanning for LOB trades...anybody seen any?
Excuse my ignorance..Whats an LOB??
  • #11,609
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:00am Sep 3, 2012 3:00am
Quoting danc
Excuse my ignorance..Whats an LOB??
entropylad provided the best description of LOB...with videos:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post3430898

LOB = london open breakout. this is a different from the other ones you will find on FF....this is unique.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,610
  • Sep 3, 2012 3:04am Sep 3, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Skynet
entropylad provided the best description of LOB...with videos:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post3430898

LOB = london open breakout. this is a different from the other ones you will find on FF....this is unique.
THANK..... YOU
  • #11,611
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:04am Sep 3, 2012 6:04am
AUD/CHF H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #11,612
  • Sep 3, 2012 6:29am Sep 3, 2012 6:29am
Been reading FF for a very long time but this is my first post. Been trading successfully for about 10 months but trying to up my game and spend a little less time in front of the charts. I love this strategy. Hope no one minds if I post my trades here.

Sleepy monday. E/U has hit major res at 2635-40. Unless there is a rabbit in the hat, looking for a few weeks of sells.

Made my first "hector trade" this morning for 3.5 pips off the 5m chart. It has kept going my way and would have been 10 pips. Monday is an odd day to trade so I'm happy to be out and go do something else.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,613
  • Sep 3, 2012 9:36am Sep 3, 2012 9:36am
Quoting zusch
...........
Ok let me clear up what I meant about self-fulfilling prophecy. When a new trend is in its early stages, the published fundamentals often don't support the price action. Only until economic data is being released do the fundamentals officially confirm what the price action has been saying the last few weeks/months. By then it is too late and traders have missed the prime opportunity to position themselves to reap the full benefits of the new trend. .....

from my experience, it is the other way around. the fundamentals almost always lead. Before the euro collapsed on american valentine day 2009...there has been strings of economic bad news...the euro continues to barrel upward...reaching 1.5050....i was banned from forex4noobs because i was soo damn pessimistic about the euro falling. then the day of the dubai crisis, the euro fell and hasnt looked back.

take present time, 2012:
even take the current, semi bullish situation in the eurusd right now....if you go to the tradingeconomics website you can see slightly, just slightly bullish nature of the euro situation. Nothing to cheer about..far from it....but it is still there. (PM conversation with LUMESH compelled me to take a look.) they are harbinger of the bullishness we now experienced in the euro from 1.2033. Also, even more indicative than that was the sentiment reading which are displayed in two ways here:
the first 1st: the COT has been showing a slightly, creeping bullish signal, week in, week out well before we have the run from the current bottom(1.2033) in eurusd. I wrote about it as early as 15th of july: that was 9 days before we saw the present, current bottom in the euro at 1.2033.... even more from tomspin that was well before the present bottom on the 23rd of july at 1.2033.....and tomspin posted more declining bearish sentiment here and here .

SECONDLY, another sentiment analysis which i like to use: how a pair handles negative and positive news: has been indicating eur bullishness for some time, well before we have the runup from 1.2033....take a gander. I posted that on the 19th of july...that was 4 days before the current bottom in the eurusd at 1.2033......basically, the eurusd have been looking for bullshite reasons to rally, and she has been developing immunity to negative eur news and positive usd news. That, is a sentiment indication of potential, pending trend reversal. All these well before the current bottom at 1.2033 on 23rd of july.

I gave these verifiable examples to show my take on things: fundamentals and sentiments almost always INDICATES how things are going to be before technicals does.....technicals however, is absolutely necessary(for me) to time my entry. I waited for a 1,2,3 formation on the daily, and a breakout, pullback, continuation at confluence of TL and S/R before trading the euro(currently i am out of any eurousd trade...i hate that currency. i am sick of it.). Why do i wait for technical confirmation? simply: the market can remain irrational more than i can remain solvent.

Quoting zusch
What you are doing from what I read is that you are forming educated macro theories with plenty of reasoning that could or could not materialize ultimately. This gives you, Skynet, the confidence to follow the price action until the published fundamental data confirms your macro theory and then you feel comfortable removing your profit target until the fundamentals start to turn against you. Correct?
correct. i generate possible, multiple scenarios...then wait for which ones develop fundamentally....based on that development...i have a plan of action...it is like " if A, then B". action plan. As clearly illustrated in shomari and i discussion of the china situation.


Quoting zusch

For example the Turkish Lira:

Now obviously you feel confident in your fundamental analysis and have the past results to give you that confidence...and that is good! I just look at it as though I'm not smarter than the market and instead I just opt to follow where everyone else's money is flowing.
that is the reason why i always wait for technical confirmation...i didnt trade the euro long based on my sentiment reading or the creeping bullishness of the fundie data pointed out to me by lumesh...i waited and waited for confirmation...in fact, the first time euro went to 1.2400 i shorted it.... after taking a closer look, i abandoned all shorts and went long at 1.2999...i have since closed all long position at 1.2400.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,614
  • Edited 10:07am Sep 3, 2012 9:48am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting Skynet
.........until the technicals starts to match up with fundamentals...then, i switch from long to bearish and trade until i am kicked out by the trend. basically, no TP at all until i am kicked out.)................3rd example, i was LONG cad against the xag. IN THIS TRADE. short XAG/CAD. that was on july 10th..............
SO, the combinations are these:
#1. fundamental + technicals = trade till the trend ends.
#2. fundamental - technicals = trade technical trend with...
i just wanted to post a picture of my current XAG/CAD latest position....

you can find it in this post.

As you can see...my previous position was SHORT.....now, presently, i am adding LONG position as indicated below in the chart....(just to show you what i mean.)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1346668319
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1346668344
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-03_13-05_XAG-CAD.jpg Size: 95 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,615
  • Sep 3, 2012 11:39am Sep 3, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Skynet
from my experience, it is the other way around. the fundamentals almost always lead. Before the euro collapsed on american valentine day 2009...there has been strings of economic bad news...the euro continues to barrel upward...reaching 1.5050.
Well you have more experience dealing with fundamentals than I so perhaps you are correct.
Quoting Skynet
I waited for a 1,2,3 formation on the daily, and a breakout, pullback, continuation at confluence of TL and S/R before trading the euro(currently i am out of any eurousd trade...i hate that currency. i am sick of it.). Why do i wait for technical confirmation? simply: the market can remain irrational more than i can remain solvent.
I'm glad to hear that you are sick of EURUSD. I haven't even had that pair on my watchlist since July 22nd. EURUSD is one of the most choppy pairs available to trade and its been that way for quite awhile. Commodity currencies including the pairs I've highlighted in my monthly candle reads have been trending in both directions very cleanly.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,616
  • Sep 3, 2012 1:12pm Sep 3, 2012 1:12pm
weird AL
welcome to trending trading all pairs...known as TTAP for short. HOPE YOU find the thread useful.

-skynet

p.s @zusch. thanks for the replies.

Quoting WeirdAl
Been reading FF for a very long time but this is my first post. Been trading successfully for about 10 months but trying to up my game and spend a little less time in front of the charts. I love this strategy. Hope no one minds if I post my trades here.

Sleepy monday. E/U has hit major res at 2635-40. Unless there is a rabbit in the hat, looking for a few weeks of sells.

Made my first "hector trade" this morning for 3.5 pips off the 5m chart. It has kept going my way and would have been 10 pips. Monday is an odd day to trade so I'm happy to...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,617
  • Sep 3, 2012 1:42pm Sep 3, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting Skynet
...i swear i am totally sick to death of it. bond buying this, QE that, LTRO whatever....draghi this, monti that...hildebrand this.....
Can I hate a little on this currency too? I haven't made any set it and forget it trades on the EURUSD in a few months for this reason. This image is from Aug 3 NFP release.

???= clearing all the swing traders out.
1= a normal pre-release ramp up after a big drop and is often an indication that the guys who have the numbers are getting into the market early
2 = "good" news hits so lemmings get short - but the news was mixed
3 = the 200 or so pip target the FED likes
4 = letting people think they can short this now because any big thrust needs some correction..only to be stopped out again.

What's really sinister about this trade was the news was later revised to be bad news. Really bad. I think this is the kind of manipulation intraday of the currency markets that the investment banks already do with stocks (can you say FaceBook stock?) and is likely to get worse with forex. The 5 minute chart showed really clearly where the big player was going to take this. I do much better with the EURUSD if I think of it as full of moderate sized sharks and one really big shark that needs my nest egg and will do whatever kind of unethical thievery it has to to get my money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,618
  • Edited Sep 4, 2012 7:20am Sep 3, 2012 5:36pm | Edited Sep 4, 2012 7:20am
Even though I was singing the praises of the Stochastics, RSI and MACD indicators which if used in the right way as leading indicators can you a trading edge, there is one and only one indicator that is top of the pile. Price Action itself! Professional, experienced or well-trained non-professionals traders alike first and foremost read price action. I am not saying they don’t use indicators, because of course they do. However, using indicators in the wrong way or over-using them so that your chart is so over-laid with them that you can barely see price action can relegate price action to an almost secondary status. Price action must always be primary!

Price action and price action alone will tell you the underlying structure of a chart and also allow you to read mass psychology of who is in charge of a chart at a specific time. Price action and action alone will tell you if there is or there is not a trend and it will even tell you how much momentum there is in each swing without using any indicators. If we look at the chart below as you can see, it has no indicators at all on it, but what can we discern without them? Firstly, from the candles we can see, price was originally in an uptrend with H.H. including B, D & F and H.L. A, C & E. After F price is making LH’s and began to make LL but the last swing low is now finding support. (Trading class 101) But can we learn anything about the strength of the previous uptrend.

 

  1. Between point A and B there is about 36 candles, however, only 8 of them were red which means there was overwhelmingly strong bullish momentum between A & B. Always count the number red or green bars in each swing this shows you the conviction of the bulls or bears. Again look at the size of the candles between A & B, of course size is relative, but I think you will agree they are medium to large, larger candles show good momentum, and alternatively small bar less so.

  1. Small bars are interesting as this often signifies a change in price momentum or equilibrium from bulls to bears and vica-versa. Not necessarily a change in trend but marking the end or the beginning of a retracement, check this out on your own charts. It is said the small candles are the big boys with deep pockets entering the market. Mutual and hedge funds obviously enter trades with hundreds of thousands and millions, but if they whacked it down in massive chunks price action is more likely to move away from the ideal price they are looking to enter the market at. So by entering with numerous smaller batches they are hoping the market absorbs their entries and allows them to enter at the optimum price. The larger bars are said to be when the herd catch wind of what the big boys are doing and jump onboard while they can before the trend comes to an end.

  1. In the retracement between B and C there are a similar number of bars as we saw to A & B, but the green and red are roughly equally split 55/50 but the size of the red candles are generally larger than the green candles as they are between D and E and this shows there is enough bearish conviction before the bulls take control again C – D and E – F where green candles outnumber the red ones again giving the uptrend momentum.

  1. Another way to gauge momentum is to see how price reacts at an S&R level. Is price stopped in its’ tracks or is the level taken out by price action, was it a small bar/candle that barely took out the level or was it a good size bar that took it out cleany and continued the trend. If we look on top of B the dotted horizontal line is an S&R level and if we follow it along past D we can see numerous touches. If we look above E the fourth (large) green bar cuts straight through resistance with force and does not look back, again this displays strong bullish momentum.

  1. Again study the candles/bar and look and see where the price ends in each bar/candle, is price closing in the top or bottom 50% of the bar/candle as this will tell you who was in charge at the time, and if price was closing in the top or bottom third this is an even stronger indication of the present mass psychology of the market, which is more important than what the individual bar/candle or pattern is called. The last five bars on the chart under X is where we are today, there is only one green candle in the five and the red candles are all closing in the lower 50% of the bar which suggest there is still some good momentum in the fifth week of this downtrend.

Persistence overcomes resistance!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,619
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:43am Sep 4, 2012 12:43am
i hate it when this happens: solid shorts position just setting up in AUD/JPY(@80.70) and AUD/USD(@1.022797)...there is also the AUD/HKD(@7.97233. BUT it is too close for comfort)

unfortunately, we have mega major news from AUD throughout this week...starting from today....all the way to thursday...from GDP to unemployment to trade balance...same thing in CAD

as such, i will have to let this pass.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,620
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:24am Sep 4, 2012 1:24am
everything is a lie. just lies after lies after lies.

the only thing i can deduce is that all this bullshite is designed for one thing only: to help the stock market...that is it. that is where the 1% have their companies.

those NFP revisions always amuses me. scammers.

ONE IMPORTANT thing: the behaviour of the forex market before and after rate announcement has been shown to be totally rigged. The pattern was analyzed and found to be NOT RANDOM AT ALL. Here is the report : "Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate changes". Oh, yeah, your conclusion that it is manipulation is absolutely right.

(the bottom of this post #11155 has the link.)

P.S. remember the whole news about how the LIBOR was been manipulated? fuckers!

personally, i am just sick of the EURUSD....i focus on other sane currency. with nice, clean trend. there are plenty of opportunities out there.


Quoting WeirdAl
Can I hate a little on this currency too? I haven't made any set it and forget it trades on the EURUSD in a few months for this reason. This image is from Aug 3 NFP release.

???= clearing all the swing traders out.
1= a normal pre-release ramp up after a big drop and is often an indication that the guys who have the numbers are getting into the market early
2 = "good" news hits so lemmings get short - but the news was mixed
3 = the 200 or so pip target the FED likes
4 = letting people think they can short this now because any big thrust needs...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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