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AUD/USD

  • #51,961
  • Sep 2, 2012 8:35pm Sep 2, 2012 8:35pm
Some terrible results! Where do you see it at the end of the day guys?
  • #51,962
  • Sep 2, 2012 8:43pm Sep 2, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting Faiz99
Some terrible results! Where do you see it at the end of the day guys?
It's anybody's guess but I would say 1.02 is not a far stretch.

However, that is my biased opinion as I have quite a few short positions

No but really, another 40 pips down is very realistic... 1.024 is S3
  • #51,963
  • Sep 2, 2012 8:59pm Sep 2, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
It's anybody's guess but I would say 1.02 is not a far stretch.

However, that is my biased opinion as I have quite a few short positions

No but really, another 40 pips down is very realistic... 1.024 is S3
True. With chinese figures expected in 32 minutes, projeted to be weak we may very well break this support! I am short too
TP 1.021
SP.1.0316
  • #51,964
  • Sep 2, 2012 9:17pm Sep 2, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting Faiz99
True. With chinese figures expected in 32 minutes, projeted to be weak we may very well break this support! I am short too
TP 1.021
SP.1.0316
  • #51,965
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:12pm Sep 2, 2012 11:12pm
AUD/USD's fall from 1.0612 continued last week as expected and reached as low as 1.0276 so far. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing. But we'll hold to our bearish view as long as 1.0410 minor resistance holds. That is, rise fro 0.9588 is completed at 1.0612 already. And, fall from there should extend to 1.0176 support and below. Though, break of 1.041 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0612 resistance instead.
  • #51,966
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:28pm Sep 2, 2012 11:28pm
Big down
Oooooooooopppppppppssssssss
  • #51,967
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:29pm Sep 2, 2012 11:29pm
I am going long with target being to close the gap.
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #51,968
  • Sep 3, 2012 12:24am Sep 3, 2012 12:24am
Here is my macro chart where we are getting close to a decision time at least for me on taking part of this short off. I will wait till later this week as China is starting to get more headline risk, and I still stand by the statement earlier made last month that September based on Fibo extension retraces and Overbought levels looks to be a down month for equities

As for the Next entry point on a adding to short I am pretty happy with the line taken since two weeks ago and will not add unless we get a Draghi type rally later this week were I will fade with pleasure.

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  • #51,969
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:09am Sep 3, 2012 4:09am
Hi,

I’m doing a thread here on COT analysis (Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis), I thought I’ll share with you the recent COT report on AUD.

A COT Extreme Sell signal in the report --> COT Index: C - 12%, LS - 91%, SS – 65%. Prices have already started to decline, the recent top is not far if you were searching for resistance levels for your stop.

All the best,
Dunstan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51,970
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:19am Sep 3, 2012 4:19am
Quoting Dunstan
Hi,

I’m doing a thread here on COT analysis (Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis), I thought I’ll share with you the recent COT report on AUD.

A COT Extreme Sell signal in the report --> COT Index: C - 12%, LS - 91%, SS – 65%. Prices have already started to decline, the recent top is not far if you were searching for resistance levels for your stop.

All the best,
Dunstan
Thanks for sharing this with us Dunstan. I'm going to subscribe to your thread and read through it tomorrow.

What are your targets for the AUD/USD?
  • #51,971
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:22am Sep 3, 2012 4:22am
Food for thought: The Bear train is heading for some walls
Everyone take a few minutes to look at the economic calendar for AUD and notice that the first week of September the majority of the ‘important’ releases come out this week. If we are able to get through the following:

Sunday: Retail sales: Bull wall broken on worse than expected

Monday: ECB’s Draghi speaks
RBA Cash Rate (no change expected)
RBA Statement (look for admission on a slowdown in future growth numbers/or talk of rate to high at current levels)

Tuesday: GDP Q/Q (If better than expected look to lighten up on shorts and take profits)
Wednesday: Employment Change/Unemployment rate (we should come out worse than exp)

Thursday: Trade Balance
.
Saturday: China CPI

In between all of this US reports significant data as well. Fundamentally if AUD shows bad numbers on a few of the above reports that an RBA cut will be imminent at their next meeting later this year. This is going to be the biggest test for Bears this week so every position player don’t expect to sleep too much this week we have a lot of data and technical’s to go through for a move lower.
  • #51,972
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:31am Sep 3, 2012 4:31am
Here is the technical picture. I personally think we will see a retrace this week giving bulls a false glimpse of hope (when they all come in on the other thread saying buy buy buy you know it will be time again to pick your levels for a continued short entry :0 )
We are trading exactly at the 50.0% Retrace from the high set last year to the bottom set in October last year as well.
The bulls have ONE LAST MAJOR SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN THEIR FAVOR
As mentioned before EUR/USD EUR/AUD the more they appreciate the more downward pressure this will cause on AUD/USD. EUR/USD EUR/AUD are approaching their ‘MAJOR’ resistance and if we should break this point than Ciao AUD/USD/
The Yield is narrowing YTD on EUR/USD & AUD/USD and as I mentioned last week we should see it go to around 0% unless ECB screws up somewhere from here till December

This week with the fundi information and purely the technical side I am expecting us to see a bounce retrace possibly on GDP if it comes out better than a sell off again when employment numbers come out for AUD. Don’t fret The pops that may come only when Fundamental numbers are better & you see a divergence in price action between AUD/USD & EUR/USD WHERE THE INVERSE CORRELATION BREAKS DOWN.
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  • #51,973
  • Sep 3, 2012 5:10am Sep 3, 2012 5:10am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Thanks for sharing this with us Dunstan. I'm going to subscribe to your thread and read through it tomorrow.

What are your targets for the AUD/USD?
No problem, I’m glad that you decided to join my thread!

I don’t have any targets. I would stay short the market, until there is another COT buy signal. If there was a significant change in the positions Commercials, Large Speculators or Small Speculators are holding, and this change was a strong bullish signal, then I might decide to step aside for a few days or if the signal was strong enough, I might even change direction and go long.

Another great signal – and in my opinion a stronger one – would be a COT extreme Buy signal --> Commercial net long > 50.000 contracts, Large Speculators net short <40.000 contracts and Small Speculators net short roughly 15.000 contracts. That would suggest a bullish opportunity. Until then – if we have no COT change signals on the way – I would stay short.

Dunstan
  • #51,974
  • Sep 3, 2012 8:04am Sep 3, 2012 8:04am
Australian company profits unexpectedly fell in the three months ended in June, this is a weaker third consecutive quarterly decline in revenue as mining, manufacturing, and retail Australia.

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forexindicatorbest
  • #51,975
  • Sep 3, 2012 8:14am Sep 3, 2012 8:14am
GDP should possibly come in weaker than expected..I am almost certain Jobs will be a BIG disappointment but since BHP's announcement I figured this would trickle down into more industries

We will see after this week if one cut end of year is the way they will go or two. The market is pricing in Two since last week but that could change on this data.
  • #51,976
  • Sep 3, 2012 9:19am Sep 3, 2012 9:19am
Quoting o man
Australian company profits unexpectedly fell in the three months ended in June, this is a weaker third consecutive quarterly decline in revenue as mining, manufacturing, and retail Australia.

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forexindicatorbest
That was totally expected and Mohan in the EU thread announced why before it happened
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,977
  • Sep 3, 2012 9:20am Sep 3, 2012 9:20am
For those who are bored as well and are charting for later this week. Here is a great intro/example doc of how HFT works and the distiction within the ALGOs...


Inserted Video
#!
  • #51,978
  • Sep 3, 2012 10:55am Sep 3, 2012 10:55am
Pretty much in the middle of the flag. Just a few pips from 1.0225. I can see price getting all the way down to 1.02. After that, maybe there is support at a 1.012.

If price goes back up after hitting 1.02, maybe 1.0335? Possibly 1.051 after a long while.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #51,979
  • Sep 3, 2012 11:34am Sep 3, 2012 11:34am
Short term targets on the 1H.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #51,980
  • Sep 3, 2012 11:50am Sep 3, 2012 11:50am
Quoting Dunstan
No problem, I’m glad that you decided to join my thread!

I don’t have any targets. I would stay short the market, until there is another COT buy signal. If there was a significant change in the positions Commercials, Large Speculators or Small Speculators are holding, and this change was a strong bullish signal, then I might decide to step aside for a few days or if the signal was strong enough, I might even change direction and go long.

Another great signal – and in my opinion a stronger one – would be a COT extreme Buy signal --> Commercial...
Perfect! I have a few short positions and my current target is roughly parity with the dollar.

I'm glad I came across your post as one of my main goals at this time was to learn more about the CoT reports and how they affect the markets. I'm looking forward to reading through your thread later today.
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