AUD/USD

Sliding down the pole.

Guys, what do you think of my latest discovery? Pretty powerful order flow analysis for the AUDUSD, i believe. It may help us to fine-tune our entries to buy & sell aussie.

http://i47.tinypic.com/nwgfq.png

Good trendline!

Hello all in a tight range as expected after the selloff. As I mentioned yesterday we would trade to the channel of 1.0290-1.0272

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5970946

and that would be a significant retrace point. And the great thing about it is good ol' ben is going to be the person that send us HIGHER. Yep thats right one of the bears who has been short for over two weeks knows this is not the time to sell more contracts.

Below are the levels for
A. Ben denying QE but gives further guidance later in the year of when they will come in= Rise risk rise
B CNY Manufacturing after the close (If they disappoint don’t even wake us Sunday shorts your well protected for the gap down.

I am going to sell more at the 1.0350-75 area and if we do happen to rise to 1.0440 than the size I put on will be the biggest ever for me shorting a market.

I might hedge upwards to 1.0355 then close it out but still running the numbers on that.. And for your position bears Friday is going to be our Next B wave retrace for the 'bigger fall' next week.

PS. If we continue down Great I have levels for that also. Bulls who have been BULLS all week please for your sanity if we rise tomorrow please don’t come in the forums and say 'i told people this was a bull market and we were going to rise eventually because you will look foolish next week when AUD falls and this time we will laugh at you

ForexMgames,

Nice seasonal analysis it's interesting to think why that may be. Have your rung this analysis further back?

Cheers, it's an old chart that price just obeys. I'm short e/a for better or for worse. It's only 1% of capital but I feel it's time to short.

You're Dead right there.

4:30 hours till the open if you guys still don't have levels for Ben here they are below.

Best of luck today and if you don't have a position by the open wait till the upper channels retraces are hit for shorting.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post5973128

Just reached the first minor Retrace which we WILL BREAK soon enough. Don't believe the hype we are going up today those who have been bears for two weeks we will resume next week until then pick your levels correctly and don’t short the hourly spike bar that is coming.

Putting on hedge now for my Short position and will take off the second leg once we reach the upper resistance levels shown below

GM all,
may be a falling wedge ? Take care .

FOOD FOR THOUGHT::::::HEDGING FOR QE





I am a firm believer that AUD/USD will experience a big move in September trading down first to 1.02 than after the RBA cut(s) we will be around Parity. However because of events like this that I can’t control and as this is a medium sized position for me I will hedge here to protect the upside potential that may come today. This is purely a day hedge and Will most likely be taken off EOD unless Price action warrants a weekend hold. As for China data on Sunday I am not too worried because we are in a retrace on AUD on a macro time frame so 1.06….1.07…1.08 is highly unlikely for the rest of this year. I will wait and see what ben says and go from there. This JPY hedge will be taken and monitored solely based off of AUD/USD levels reached today.


/6a (AUD/USD)
Basis 28c: 1.0414 $10/tick .0001 = $280
Open PnL: $29,110 Peak from the low at 1.0275 was around $36950 or slightly higher/lower screenshot on other station.


P/L Day: (7,840)
Targets and PnL Day:
1st. Resistance: 1.0344: (16,520)
2nd. Resistance: 1.0355: (19,600)
3rd. Resistance: 1.0377: (25,760) short position will be cut by -5
4th. Resistance: 1.0437 (42,560) Highly unlikely we trade here

Hedge: Yen Futures:


The reason I picked Yen futures as opposed to Dollar as a hedge was because I honestly am uncertain how it will react to Bernake’s non QE address. It might fall on guidance later in the year for stimulus or rise because its not happening now. Either way I will just stick to high correlation and Percentage differentials which JPY is the highest at the moment of all majors.


Hedge /6J 10c Short @ 0.12734. If the market reverses higher and Dollar and Yen rebound past certain resistance points than I will take off the hedge and watch as AUD/USD falls even more making up for the small loss on the Yen hedge
1st. Target: 12.7137 $2,537
2nd. Target: 12.684 $6,250
3rd. Target: 12.633 $12,625
4th. Target:12.557 $22,125 (Highly Unlikely)


This hedge will be closed if three criterias are met


1. We sell off in AUD/USD and the yen/Dollar rises


2. On AUD/USD trading channels we stall in which case I will start to consider adding shorts to AUD/USD and scaling out of JPY back up to entry price




3. It is a quick reaction and by Friday’s close we are still back to ranges after a spike

Here are the visual examples that explains a little what I am talking about above and what I am looking at

Here is the fundamental reason why AUD/USD will continue to fall…










EUR/USD just broke 1.26 and guess what EUR/AUD is continuing higher as well. AUD/USD is as attractive for the return it can get. We all have opinions about the Euro and Greece but lets be honest shorts you have missed the boat months ago. Funds/pensions/money markets will see a shift back to EURO’s as this year progresses and you will see funds come out of other counties Like US/Australia/New Zealand/Switzerland ect. And they will make their way back to Emerging Markets/and Europe.

To those who say but if risk goes up commodities/Equities go up than AUD will benefit. I hate to tell you this is a losing bet. AUD is only attractive because of swap, and the safe haven that’s about it. I recommend people read The ALCHEMY OF FINANCE to understand what stage Europe is in and why AUD/USD will continue to fall and EUR/USD will grind higher sending the percentage spread near 0% end of year.

Some here can collect pips I will catch the move down and the $ 000000’s with less stress.

Below: 20D 1H chart of EUR/USD AUD/USD EUR/AUD
1DAY (TODAY)1h EUR/USD AUD/USD EUR/AUD
YTD D: AUD/USD EUR/USD EUR/AUD (this disproves w/o a shadow of a doubt that So eur goes AUD will follow)


Its not a coincidence at all that AUD is under performing the EUR on both time frames and is narrowing the percentage gap on YTD…Nawww not at all convincing

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post5974195

HEDGE CANCELLED AN EARTHQUAKE JUST HIT NEAR JAPAN....JPY rallying..

I will look to Dollars as it looks like it will be the one taking over for the major selling today...

Here is the speech everyone..This changes nothing on AUD it still is a sell. Don't believe tell me where we are trading from the open...Don't woory Ill wait


http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents...e20120831a.htm

people decided to read the last couple sentences of the speech and decided to buy..@CNBC Can't even agree what 'as needed' means HA Ha ha...Ya I will be on the offer everywhere on AUD/USD this is trendless today and Dollar hit a major retrace for upward movement...What does that equal Ill tell you at the close right now the market is sorting through Bad longs. See you at the close where I suspect we will be at the same levels..


The levels above AUD/USD are posted below for where I will be waiting to pile in more shorts. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post5973128

PS..How many more months are we going to keep going through this QE question. This is amazing how Ben is able to keep markets in anticipation when this is the biggest trolling I ever seen..Worse than Youtube arguments between trolls because at least that ends

Indeed, rehash of the latest minutes release.


Nice layout for the eur + aud- and thanks for posting, really appreciate the added perspective.

Good to see a shout out for AOF- loved the real time experiment, about a month's worth of good macro stuff to chew on there and a fun read through also, and his chapters on markets/credit.

Looking at the AudChf, price broke through the TL after breaking the 50 EMA. Now, price may have found support at the 100 EMA after the Benranke speech. Considering price sometimes does retrace back to the most recent TL broken and considering that price sometimes bounces off of an EMA since it can be viewed as dynamic S/R and since it is in a supply zone turned demand, I certainly can see the AudChf going up.

Though, I'm still conflicted with my AudUsd view that price could go down to 1.025 or 1.02.

Very good charts and explanations with logical reasoning.

I look forward to making more pips next week. Do you think the markets will be very volitile and out of whack for the next trading day or so?

CDM,
I wish I can vouch for you for reading that book. It is by far one of the top three books that explains boom/busts, Credit, and most important of all the participants expectations and reality.. Good read and I'm curious as to your thoughts as well on Europe' do you think they are making enough progress or no.. and are they in what Soros said level 2 of the transition deleveraging/currency devalued enough to export/ an repairing the balance sheet?

I know this is AUD thread but this can pertain to EUR/AUD so anyone is welcome to give their thoughts…

Pair,

Thank you yes that chart is always on one of my screens and it is a beauty watching the percentage narrow. I hope you did not trade today or if you did you placed your stops close like we spoke about lol… You did very well this week and next week we will continue the progress. Have a great weekend and try to fill out some of the Trading Plan I sent you It will really help I promise. See you on Skype and anyone else who wants to chat it up during market sessions (I learned more about physics this week from Pair )about trading or other my skpe is on the profile.