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  • #8,381
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:16am Aug 31, 2012 1:16am
Quoting doblece
... although you'll have to send your email address.

(NOT associated in any case with that website, just stumbled upon while researching other things and I really love to read FREE e-books! Just sharing ... )

For those of you that are interested on Volume/Price Analysis (VPA) or Volume/Spread Analysis (VSA) trading.
A basic refresher, but 76 pages long.

http://www.hawkeyefx.com/software/

There's also an interesting thread here at FF (commercial - used to be in the Trading Systems section though):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=154339

Enjoy...

If you like VSA, I prefer "VSA with Malcolm" , go through the first few hundreds pages first as this thread was not used as much recently.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241760
  • #8,382
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:17am Aug 31, 2012 1:17am
Quoting irfandbl
Why do I get the feeling that the bullish divergence we have on H4 isn't going to help the bulls a lot today...

I was expecting a decent correction for today, but I can't seem to find anything that could lead us to it, everything is pointing down as for now...



Maybe the Europeans would change my view...or maybe the Yanks

Are we heading for 1.0216 or even 1.0150?

Time will tell..........
Hmm ... according to your stochcandlefib theory of taking the lowest point, on my charts 27.8 low on stoch is lower than 29.8 ... thus forming a slightly bullish divergence on H1, with another bullish divergence from 29.8 to 30.8 stoch lows at a greater angle.

If taking this point, 100% opposite side of fib from low reaches 1.0412 and just above H1's SMA200. It wasn't reached on his "first time" (only went to 76.4ish).

Maybe the "tweaking" I'm doing here isn't technically correct... as it has then crossed level 50 several times ... but the divergence IS clearly visible so I personally think that price could indeed resume a correction towards that price (between 1.0350 and 1.0412).

- H1 SMA200
- Double bottom
- stochcandlefib "tweaked" but original 100% level
- Friday profit taking (especially on shorts)

Anyway the first chart posted has that level at a 161.8% extension, near 29.8 highs and just below SMA200 (1.0395/99).

Which is also the 50% on previous H4 swing low, and a medium-strong R/S zone (three points: 17 and 22.8 lows, 29.8 highs with additional intermediate rejections inside the zone) between 1.0410 and 1.0399.

Let's see what happen!
Have you all a good and restful night!
  • #8,383
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:21am Aug 31, 2012 1:21am
Quoting foxybunny
If you like VSA, I prefer "VSA with Malcolm" , go through the first few hundreds pages first as this thread was not used as much recently.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241760
Ah thank you very much, I was missing that one too (didn't remember the title).

  • #8,384
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:21am Aug 31, 2012 1:21am
Quoting irfandbl
Why do I get the feeling that the bullish divergence we have on H4 isn't going to help the bulls a lot today...

I was expecting a decent correction for today, but I can't seem to find anything that could lead us to it, everything is pointing down as for now...



Maybe the Europeans would change my view...or maybe the Yanks

Are we heading for 1.0216 or even 1.0150?

Time will tell..........
Expect the unexpected. We may see a classic pump and dump today. Will we see 1.0400 and then a big drop??
  • #8,385
  • Aug 31, 2012 1:34am Aug 31, 2012 1:34am
Quoting doblece
Just wondering if instead one could look to sell at high + 161.8 extension in those cases: have a look at Monthly AUD/USD on 1.8.2009's stoch peak that bounced at 50 level. Starting further investigation on other pairs and TFs...

(Also because given the 50 cross occurs when price is lower, taking that same candle to plot the 50% wouldn't give enough scope to the fibs beyond the peak candle...)

Unsure about how you are using the Fib & 161.8%.

I cannot comment on A/U as have not monitor it much, that is why I don't normally visit or post here.

I have gone through only E/U H1 from Mar-2012 till Aug-2012.
And the 100% mark is the real zone to watch out, without needing to do much fib extension to 161.8% or others.

Key factor is that need to keep moving the Fib, as Stoch changes, it is not stationary, then you will see how it really ends well in the 100% zone.

Also you may want to change your parameters on the Stoch, and cater when to move Fib as in after 50, after Stoch Pop, and after retracement to 50, this is why I said need to move the fib.

When I left the fib in the original position, it did not do much.

Have you written an indicator for this Fib-Stoch ??

If you did, you sure are very fast with your programming.

BTW, I just saw your site on Fractal Art, very interesting.
Do you design them or capture through some microscope research?
  • #8,386
  • Aug 31, 2012 2:09am Aug 31, 2012 2:09am
Quoting foxybunny
Unsure about how you are using the Fib & 161.8%.
Just trying to spot confluences of levels. Barely starting to use this tool and checking it against my other usual visual crutches

Quoting foxybunny
I have gone through only E/U H1 from Mar-2012 till Aug-2012.
And the 100% mark is the real zone to watch out, without needing to do much fib extension to 161.8% or others.
Thank you so much for sharing your extended research. Good to know that so to not speculate around (too much ... ).

Quoting foxybunny
Key factor is that need to keep moving the Fib, as Stoch changes, it is not stationary, then you will see how it really ends well in the 100% zone.

Also you may want to change your parameters on the Stoch, and cater when to move Fib as in after 50, after Stoch Pop, and after retracement to 50, this is why I said need to move the fib.

When I left the fib in the original position, it did not do much..
After 50 = look for next lower level? (in fact I think what I did was to go back earlier in time and found a higher TF as it coincides with H4 lowest (which hasn't reached 50 level yet). Mixing things, I guess. But I'm a multi-time frame freak

What do you mean by "Stoch Pop"? the opposite peak?
Yes, I understand this.
However as irfandbl had mentioned "the lowest point" I searched back for one earlier and thought this could give me some clues, and overlooked the cyclic "peak-50-valley-50-peak" "rule"..[/quote]

Quoting foxybunny
Have you written an indicator for this Fib-Stoch ??.

If you did, you sure are very fast with your programming.
No I haven't, it's irfandbl's "stochcandlefib" strategy but no particular indicator just spotting the points manually.

I think he said he has an automated level calculation that sends data to an Excel spreadsheet, at least that is what I understood, it's somewhere among the recent posts.

Quoting foxybunny
BTW, I just saw your site on Fractal Art, very interesting.
Do you design them or capture through some microscope research?
Thank you, I'm glad you liked it!
Both research and design after I find an interesting pattern that I want to develop further, either by tweaking some settings (mostly using Apophysis software) or with a few make-up tricks on The Gimp (open-source Photoshop-like software, awesome!).

Has been a while since last update though, have a few hundreds of them saved for rendering but it takes so much time and computer resources that I have set it into a pause. My creative impulses come by waves ... once it's Fractals, then the next it's Music composing ... but have no particular goals, it's just for fun and personal research and growth. Then I resume projects maybe a year or two after, LOL.
Cycles! Gotta love them ...

Thanks for the detailed tips and kind words.
Much pips to you!
  • #8,387
  • Aug 31, 2012 2:47am Aug 31, 2012 2:47am
Quoting doblece
Just trying to spot confluences of levels. Barely starting to use this tool and checking it against my other usual visual crutches



Thank you so much for sharing your extended research. Good to know that so to not speculate around (too much ... ).



After 50 = look for next lower level? (in fact I think what I did was to go back earlier in time and found a higher TF as it coincides with H4 lowest (which hasn't reached 50 level yet). Mixing things, I guess. But I'm a multi-time frame freak

What do you mean by "Stoch Pop"?...

Quote
No I haven't, it's irfandbl's "stochcandlefib" strategy but no particular indicator just spotting the points manually.

I think he said he has an automated level calculation that sends data to an Excel spreadsheet, at least that is what I understood, it's somewhere among the recent posts.



Thank you, I'm glad you liked it!
Both research and design after I find an interesting pattern that I want to develop further, either by tweaking some settings (mostly using Apophysis software) or with a few make-up tricks on The Gimp (open-source...

"After 50 = look for next lower level?"
Unclear on your question above.
I am still working out on this Fib-Stoch.

My original post meaning is that even though we take Fib 50% on Stoch 50, we must watch what happens after the Stoch 50, as we may need to
re-position the Fib depending on what happens after that.

Stoch Pop - I mean it reach the upper limit OR lower limit, AND it remains in that extended zone for some time.
Seem that sometimes at the start of reaching this limit is also a good place to put the Fib 50%.

What is this " "peak-50-valley-50-peak" "rule"??

As I am new to this thread, have not read on past posts from you or irfandbl so unaware of "stochcandlefib" strategy or other related indicators.

Multi-time frame may work better, I just have not use much on H4 timeframe.
The H1 timeframe gave even some good extension points at 100% for some very short small moves that H4 would NOT have shown, whereas M15 was a bit too muddle up for me to analyse.

I am also interested on you findings for this Fib-Stoch.

U compose music as well!! Multi-talented!

Show us your website music if you have one.
  • #8,388
  • Aug 31, 2012 2:59am Aug 31, 2012 2:59am
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bull told me that he loves Bxxxxx today .....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1346335948
Aaah, thanks for reminding me that we have Benny on the mic today. Most likely it's going to be a bullish day. Thanks again Papa
  • #8,389
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:02am Aug 31, 2012 3:02am
Quoting Robot Trader
The thing to learn when trading divergence on the larger TF's is price over time will always return to where the divergence started. So while I want the price to drop down to the 1.02/1.0235 level (to get a better EP) before I start to attack, I do expect the divergence to take the price back up to the 1.04 area over a period of time.

Now with the positive swaps and using low leverage I would like this trade to even drop down to below parity, because I would just keep adding at key support levels. If this trade could then last until the middle...
Nice tips buddy, they really are
  • #8,390
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:06am Aug 31, 2012 3:06am
Why bullish? What if Bernanke has good things to say?
  • #8,391
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:09am Aug 31, 2012 3:09am
315 to 330 sell zone for today as i read my own chart
4H , Daily
  • #8,392
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:18am Aug 31, 2012 3:18am
Quoting irfandbl
Nice tips buddy, they really are
Glad you found it of interest, in the coming weeks when we get some better volume in the market and price moving from one extreme to another with divergence I will post some trade and we can see how well they perform.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,393
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:21am Aug 31, 2012 3:21am
Quoting payal
Expect the unexpected. We may see a classic pump and dump today. Will we see 1.0400 and then a big drop??
Yes Payal, thanks for the reminder, always expect the unexpected indeed. And Benny is farting today. Obviously the unexpected will occur
  • #8,394
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:25am Aug 31, 2012 3:25am
Watching this video on seasonality.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/fxcm-expo-2010-presentations/229200-david-rodriguez-using-seasonal-cycles-gain-edge-forex-trading.html

Presentation slides can be downloaded.
  • #8,395
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:36am Aug 31, 2012 3:36am
Just looking at how price might act around the 61.8 Fib, we might get a H&S with the 61.8 being the neckline, but this is a very news active day and also the last day of the month so expecting some profit taking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h&s h4 31 08 12.jpg Size: 162 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,396
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:47am Aug 31, 2012 3:47am
Quoting foxybunny
"After 50 = look for next lower level?"
Unclear on your question above.
I am still working out on this Fib-Stoch.

My original post meaning is that even though we take Fib 50% on Stoch 50, we must watch what happens after the Stoch 50, as we may need to
re-position the Fib depending on what happens after that.

Stoch Pop - I mean it reach the upper limit OR lower limit, AND it remains in that extended zone for some time.
Seem that sometimes at the start of reaching this limit is also a good place to put the Fib 50%.

What is this " "peak-50-valley-50-peak"...
"After 50": I was asking if you meant that after the cross of stoch's 50 level the next step was to look out for the next lower (or higher) level below/above 70 to then move again the fib initial point and wait for a 50 cross (this is also what I meant by the ""peak-50-valley-50-peak" "rule" - as this is what I have understood from irfandbl earlier posts.

Quote
Stoch Pop - I mean it reach the upper limit OR lower limit, AND it remains in that extended zone for some time.
Seem that sometimes at the start of reaching this limit is also a good place to put the Fib 50%.
Understood now the "Pop".
However why would we place the 50% fib at that place? Or do you mean to align the 50% fib with the 50 stoch cross only when 70 opposite level has been breached?

Will keep on sharing my findings, musings and speculations about it, looks very interesting indeed.


Music website? Hmm... mostly all over the place on the net.
Had all my fractal tracks (2005) on a blog but they disappeared after the music host updated its website. Two of them are on MySpace:
http://www.myspace.com/doblece2c
and the Meditation (2009) there is a track I made for a Fractal slideshow video on Youtube.
Here's three of my oldest (2002/3ish) and two of my latest in March this year:
http://soundcloud.com/doblecedigital
Mostly experimental and weird stuff
(thanks for asking!)
  • #8,397
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:48am Aug 31, 2012 3:48am
Quoting doblece
Hmm ... according to your stochcandlefib theory of taking the lowest point, on my charts 27.8 low on stoch is lower than 29.8 ... thus forming a slightly bullish divergence on H1, with another bullish divergence from 29.8 to 30.8 stoch lows at a greater angle.
That's true, bullish divergences are scattered everywhere on several TFs, and my call for a decent correction/retrace was based on that we eventually have reached the 100% target of D1 stoch 14,3,3.
Although for the stoch 5,3,3 one we only have reached the 70% target which is the same as the 14,3,3 100 fib one (1.0284), but the targets for the D1 5,3,3 are calculated based on a re-crosses of level 50 stoch, based on my recent observation, it rarely reaches the 85 or 100 target if it is based on re-crosses of level 50. Here's what I meant by re-crosses on stoch 5,3,3 D1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1533.gif Size: 22 KB


While the targets for 14,3,3 D1 is based on one cross only

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d11433.gif Size: 18 KB


I know it's confusing (at least for me) to have two parameters of stochastic to follow. But having only 5,3,3 to follow has caused some "holes" based on my findings.

Anyway, I said earlier that everything was pointing down, I guess I wasn't patiently enough to wait for signals of correction, right now H4 is starting to develop some signals to go up. Patience is key indeed, that one word is the one I haven't quite learned. Jumping the gun is my name.


Quote
If taking this point, 100% opposite side of fib from low reaches 1.0412 and just above H1's SMA200. It wasn't reached on his "first time" (only went to 76.4ish).

Maybe the "tweaking" I'm doing here isn't technically correct... as it has then crossed level 50 several times ... but the divergence IS clearly visible so I personally think that price could indeed resume a correction towards that price (between 1.0350 and 1.0412).

Most of the times...our previous 50 level cross would be voided if it has re-crossed level 50, especially in this case, it has created a new "valley".
I choose the phrase "most of the times" because I had a few cases just like the one you mentioned, it eventually chased it's previous targets because some of them had not been reached on his "first time". So the thing that dragged the stoch line up/down is the correction of smaller TFs.
But if it is going to reach the unreachable on his "first time", usually it will create another peak/valley and 50 level cross that it will give us the same target as the "first time"..


Quote
- H1 SMA200
- Double bottom
- stochcandlefib "tweaked" but original 100% level
- Friday profit taking (especially on shorts)

Anyway the first chart posted has that level at a 161.8% extension, near 29.8 highs and just below SMA200 (1.0395/99).

Which is also the 50% on previous H4 swing low, and a medium-strong R/S zone (three points: 17 and 22.8 lows, 29.8 highs with additional intermediate rejections inside the zone) between 1.0410 and 1.0399.

Let's see what happen!
Have you all a good and restful night!

  • #8,398
  • Aug 31, 2012 3:56am Aug 31, 2012 3:56am
Quoting banana
Why bullish? What if Bernanke has good things to say?
could you please define "good things", good for the bears or for the bulls?

Quoting Robot Trader
Glad you found it of interest, in the coming weeks when we get some better volume in the market and price moving from one extreme to another with divergence I will post some trade and we can see how well they perform.
Great! I'm looking forward to learning how to trade divergence from you. Thanks again
  • #8,399
  • Aug 31, 2012 4:16am Aug 31, 2012 4:16am
We have hidden divergence on the H1 (MACD & Stoch's) if PA cannot make it to and hold above 1.033, then I expect it to start its move down again
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #8,400
  • Aug 31, 2012 4:24am Aug 31, 2012 4:24am
Quoting Robot Trader
We have hidden divergence on the H1 (MACD & Stoch's) if PA cannot make it to and hold above 1.033, then I expect it to start its move down again
Why 1.033? Is it because it is the previous high that we need to pass in order to void the divergence?
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