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  • #109,041
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:09pm Aug 29, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
6 and 3
Ok thanks ...now give me a few minutes as I want to show you a chart...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,042
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:12pm Aug 29, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting sisse
Ok thanks ...now give me a few minutes as I want to show you a chart...

sisse
  • #109,043
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:17pm Aug 29, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting Venice
And then every. single. day. NY open and we just get an absolute train wreck. It never fails. Price is a mess.
So, the options with NY are: train wreck or total reversal.
  • #109,044
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:36pm Aug 29, 2012 2:36pm
c'mon Sisse

  • #109,045
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:37pm Aug 29, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting chazzle
c'mon Sisse

Lol. Ok, I am waiting as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #109,046
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:37pm Aug 29, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
Ok thanks ...now give me a few minutes as I want to show you a chart...

sisse
Sorry for the delay was busy .....just to show you something. Your numbers were 6 /12 and 3/5. So I picked a month number 6 which is June and 3 which correspond to 3rd and every Wednesday of that June month just for the sake of the example...

Forget about knowing direction and etc that's not the point in the London opening discussion is just to show you how perspective can make you change everything. More importantly the "power" of London in regards with timing.

The chart is not to show you trades obviously, but to show the relation between the opening range, the direction of the range and the r:r relation between maximum theoretical drawdown to one side (the wrong direction) and the maximun theoretical reward ... the chart is self-explanatory and I think it rest the case of why been up and running in London opening is key for FX.... Just ask yourself for a minute...despite levels and your system what would have happened if you just bought/sell on your 6 / 3 London opening range random number system....

You can explore a lot further with that simple chart ....knowing the importance of London for Timing can save you a lot of headaches and useless screen time at the wrong "times"....

sisse
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RandonHatchLondon (1).png Size: 25 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,047
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:46pm Aug 29, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting sisse

Forget about knowing direction and etc that's not the point in the London opening discussion is just to show you how perspective can make you change everything. More importantly the "power" of London in regards with timing.
I did a study a while back on swings and when they occured , on the hourly chart - I got roughly 40% of the swings initiated between 7 and 11 gmt - making it more than twice as likely that a decent swing ( 80 - 100 + ) occurred in this 4 hr period than any other time of the day
  • #109,048
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:55pm Aug 29, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting chazzle
I did a study a while back on swings and when they occured , on the hourly chart - I got roughly 40% of the swings initiated between 7 and 11 gmt - making it more than twice as likely that a decent swing ( 80 - 100 + ) occurred in this 4 hr period than any other time of the day
I can imagine those results ...In my case I have a LOT better benchmark when I just trade my valid options with London (that was my point for Hatch)... Instead of using it as trade every single London open try evaluating those swings only when your trading plan tell is pointing to a valid trade ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,049
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:04pm Aug 29, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
I can imagine those results ...In my case I have a LOT better benchmark when I just trade my valid options with London (that was my point for Hatch)... Instead of using it as trade every single London open try evaluating those swings only when your trading plan tell is pointing to a valid trade ....

sisse
yes , to layer the timing over the strat. - good subject to bring up , cheers
  • #109,050
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:07pm Aug 29, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting chazzle
yes , to layer the timing over the strat. - good subject to bring up , cheers
Plus is very hard to see London opening range not been part of any major swing (including NFP days)...almost impossible I would say

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,051
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:15pm Aug 29, 2012 3:15pm
I don't understand that...
  • #109,052
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:25pm Aug 29, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting sisse
Plus is very hard to see London opening range not been part of any major swing (including NFP days)...almost impossible I would say

sisse
  • #109,053
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:26pm Aug 29, 2012 3:26pm
the actual surge in volume is maybe important here
with London having 35%+ of the volume - moving from Asia ( the lowest ) to London ( the highest ) - whereas where London and NY overlap , although NY also has a big share - the "noise" is drowned out a bit by prevailing volume in London/Euro ... I think on my study something like 22% of swings initiated during NY initial 4 hr period / compared with Londons 40%

but anyway - chart says it all


back in a bit
  • #109,054
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:30pm Aug 29, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I don't understand that...
What you mean? ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,055
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:34pm Aug 29, 2012 3:34pm
Quoting chazzle
the actual surge in volume is maybe important here
with London having 35%+ of the volume - moving from Asia ( the lowest ) to London ( the highest ) - whereas where London and NY overlap , although NY also has a big share - the "noise" is drowned out a bit by prevailing volume in London/Euro ... I think on my study something like 22% of swings initiated during NY initial 4 hr period / compared with Londons 40%

but anyway - chart says it all


back in a bit
hmm I found the reverse where NY usually sets the tone but during overlap period. Tops and bottoms are set here.. while london follows the next day. Esp in gold it shows that NY is king because of the manipulation by JPM etc
  • #109,056
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:40pm Aug 29, 2012 3:40pm
Quoting sisse
What you mean? ....

sisse
I just don't see, why the London opening range has to be that special to me... there must be something hidden from my perception.
  • #109,057
  • Aug 29, 2012 3:51pm Aug 29, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I just don't see, why the London opening range has to be that special to me... there must be something hidden from my perception.
Well, 1st because the obvious volume and size that London moves in the FX markets ...there is no discussion on that.

Second because you want to trade with some real money flowing (I am talking about decent trades not the 5 pipers in M1) for momentum.

Third because the Frank/London opening is ahead of most of the key reports from Europe (while in NY is the other way around).

Fourth, because is healthy to have reference point for timing ...otherwise we have to track to the tick all markets 24/7

and finally, as you said just for the sake of perspective ....

In your last euro chart....what would have happened if you just turn off your computer and came back for London open next day in your example: assuming you trade with London open and you decided to take the break down (you will have had a tiny drawdown to the next target (not in your chart) or if you were caught in the wrong side and had gone long you would have been stopped instantly ... whatever the case you will have been +12 hours less of screen time and just trade when the "action" was happening ....

Quoting Mr Hatch
if committing yourself to a trade, consider your rrr. london is closing soon and entering under your conditions leaves you prone to drawdown/stop-out.

the part in red might give you a heart-attack one day.

Just another example using your last charts....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #109,058
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:03pm Aug 29, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting sisse
Well, 1st because the obvious volume and size that London moves in the FX markets ...there is no discussion on that.

Second because you want to trade with some real money flowing (I am talking about decent trades not the 5 pipers in M1) for momentum.

Third because the Frank/London opening is ahead of most of the key reports from Europe (while in NY is the other way around).

Fourth, because is healthy to have reference point for timing ...otherwise we have to track to the tick all markets 24/7

and finally,...
Here's my problem with LO-range on that specific chart. the hourly candle was a doji, followed by a bullish engulfing candle resulting in a serious drop... I would have bitten my tongue off for longing into that, who would do it without a pullback?

I don't argue your valid points about London, it just doesn't help me as much as I'd like it to, yet.
  • #109,059
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:06pm Aug 29, 2012 4:06pm
What chart you referring to H ?

Quoting Mr Hatch
Here's my problem with LO-range on that specific chart. the hourly candle was a doji, followed by a bullish engulfing candle resulting in a serious drop... I would have bitten my tongue off for longing into that, who would do it without a pullback?

I don't argue your valid points about London, it just doesn't help me as much as I'd like it to, yet.
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #109,060
  • Aug 29, 2012 4:08pm Aug 29, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting pipper
What chart you referring to H ?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post5927970
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