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AUD/USD

  • #51,801
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:53am Aug 28, 2012 5:53am
Quoting jplazard
No I personally don't think QE3 will come because the argument is not valid at the moment for more stimulus.

Unemployment is what's worrying them the most otherwise other key data points are pointing upwards....

From the finance Backround Id rather they come in sooner than later as China announced last week and UK is on the back end of their stimulus..We have a big cloud coming over the horizon and that is Japan...They will be in news by end of year and q12013 their cash strapped and their bond market is about ready to capitulate..The...
I completely agree with you here. I've also had my eye on Japan's situation but I don't think the media will jump on it until they've had enough with the Eurozone crisis. Like you said, probably closer to the end of the year.

Seems no matter what happens there will be major problems coming our way, and even if the US is downgraded money should still flow to the USD as the safe haven currency with a global slowdown.

What are your thoughts on that? JPY & USD are the two major safe haven currencies, but with a US downgrade and a storm brewing in Japan should these two currencies remain strong in times of crisis?

ADD: I don't think other countries will dump US Treasuries too quick as they risk crashing their holdings as well. If they crash us, they crash their "IOUs"
  • #51,802
  • Aug 28, 2012 6:03am Aug 28, 2012 6:03am
Sorry folks, I didn't mean to take this thread off topic which is AUD.

JPLazard,

If you prefer I can PM you in regards to our discussion. Let me know.
  • #51,803
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:55am Aug 28, 2012 7:55am
I agree that USD will have the same influx of safe haven capital coming in causing a rally but it might be different because this time Our counterparts will 'encourage' the US to make some serious changes..It is getting bad out there and I suspect a wave will all it at once then the after math domino effect will add fuel to the fire.

HAHA day of the downgrade we traded higher on Dollar..Before the big rally to follow. The irony


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  • #51,804
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:59am Aug 28, 2012 7:59am
Call not confirmed yet as I forgot to mention on the upside that we will not see this until we trade and CLOSE above the resistance were banging up against.
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  • #51,805
  • Aug 28, 2012 8:10am Aug 28, 2012 8:10am
Still think we traded higher as ES (S&P) is double bottoming here AUD/USD shorts might have to wait till the levels mentioned earlier take hold. Or I will be happier to sell lower of course..


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  • #51,806
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:06am Aug 28, 2012 9:06am
ES seems to be heavy on the downside if we break the line NY open as drawn earlier than the bull spike I spoke about will not look likely otherwise this channel is holding which is of interest but lower lows and lower highs are forming in this channel which is a shorts best friend.

Also if it helps and his channel does break down another trader in the AUD forum just recently called for a buy. I follow him becuse he is the contrarian trade
  • #51,807
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:58am Aug 28, 2012 9:58am
Quoting jplazard2
ES seems to be heavy on the downside if we break the line NY open as drawn earlier than the bull spike I spoke about will not look likely otherwise this channel is holding which is of interest but lower lows and lower highs are forming in this channel which is a shorts best friend.

Also if it helps and his channel does break down another trader in the AUD forum just recently called for a buy. I follow him becuse he is the contrarian trade

I hope the contrarian trader doesn't know who he or she is. ha ha ha.. Also, I noticed that even the the dollar has been a dark cloud cover on the daily, and the Eur/Usd has popped up 90+ pips today. The Aud/Usd hasn't budged much. That tells me that the Aussie really wants to go down. Well just a hunch from what I noticed the last few weeks.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,808
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:14pm Aug 28, 2012 3:14pm
haha...pair he knows who he is not on this thread as I think the majority here are open to Long/short views and post great analysis its at another Thread on this site



I went to catch some ZZz's as the open proved a dud and I woke up with happiness THAT WE HAVE NOT BUDGED.. which I love even better. Also looking at the Dollar we have traded near the bottom set last Friday for so renewed support (for now) and ES or what I like to call HFT landmine mine market is dead as well..

If we don’t trade to the Upside then I will add to my short once this sideways channel breakdown. Otherwise I will still wait for other opportunities on the Pic enclosed


(side note: I love that trader who is a bear and has been for the last few days but said they were a bull/bear also overnight catching moves all day. But then comes back and still claims to be a Bull…It is like when I first started investing and wanted to park my money with a Financial advisor to focus on preservation of capital…I asked him
‘so this is a good stock with long term growth prospects?
FA: ‘OHH yeah it has plenty upside?
ME: Do you have personal money invested or family money
FA: Are you kidding me no not at these levels, BUT It has long term prospects though
ME: (Pace palm)
Ahahah…Certain traders maintain credibility when they call right moves and wrong moves simply because they are vague on their calls or come back later when their proven correct days, weeks later when the market is at much lower prices saying I TOLD YOU SO!!! They are the best out there lol

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  • #51,809
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:37pm Aug 28, 2012 3:37pm
Hey JLPAZARD what where do you see AUS USD? I am short 1.0365 Sl 1.01415! Has the possible USD downgrade in rating already priced in? Is 1.03 a realistic TP for this week?
  • #51,810
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:37pm Aug 28, 2012 3:37pm
as ES and other markets are flat today I don't see any reason why AUD/USD is going to budge at these levels until..

AUD construction work donw @ 6:30PST 9:30est
Here are the levels that look attractive where I have place either sell stops or sell limits for the news. Given that we have (Still) not had a B wave weekly retrace to the Upside for the Wave lower we could get a suprise to the upside which is great for us Position Bears..

We have not traded above still the resistance that would of opened the door for the spike I was talking about earlier so either we get it tonight or going shoort below this support line adds fuel to the bear camp,

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  • #51,811
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:41pm Aug 28, 2012 3:41pm
Hello Faiz99,

Nice to meet you If we break this upper support and close above on an Hourly bar than the channels I listed above are upside targets.. I suspect though if the news is Better out of AUD tonight it will a quick spike to the first channel then from there we will have to see how it closes.
  • #51,812
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:56pm Aug 28, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting jplazard2
Hello Faiz99,

Nice to meet you If we break this upper support and close above on an Hourly bar than the channels I listed above are upside targets.. I suspect though if the news is Better out of AUD tonight it will a quick spike to the first channel then from there we will have to see how it closes.
Hmm, thanx. Fingers crossed! I hope this goes down well for me, especially after what eur usd has done to me!
  • #51,813
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:10pm Aug 28, 2012 4:10pm
Today was strange to say the lease That timeline from Fitch of possible downgrade really sparked overnight madness but when NY opened up everything just died out..
Copper= flatlined today
Oil= Tight range today 95.43-96.54
Gold= flat from NY open no follow through overnight +3points higer
USD/GBP=Big winner today for bulls and nice follow through all day
EUR/USD= held gains overnight and had solid interest at the open
Dollar= hanging onto support @ 81.36 Low from last weeks selloff 81.22

And the loser is or flatliner= AUD/USD come on up and make a speech AUD
Fireworks are around the corner for a lot of markets AUD/USD could go either way spike to levels on the upside or continue downward to 1.03 overnight we will see.

Someone call a medic we have flatlined today stat!
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  • #51,814
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:12pm Aug 28, 2012 4:12pm
Faiz,

I would set a tight stop on the upside because if we break the upper resistance it could pop. And even better you have higher levels to build shorts at more comforting areas..
  • #51,815
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:14pm Aug 28, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting jplazard2
Faiz,

I would set a tight stop on the upside because if we break the upper resistance it could pop. And even better you have higher levels to build shorts at more comforting areas..
So what could be a possibly comfortable stop? Nearest resistance?
  • #51,816
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:22pm Aug 28, 2012 4:22pm
This is the Resistance I mentioned earlier where London/NewYok (13hours) could not gain enough strength to push through.

To some the can possibly look like a rounding bottom/ with a hint of Inverse H&S but the the right Should has not materialized yet. If we break the resistance set you stop tigh because it will first gun for Sunday's open
1.04225 which is in the middle of the first channel upwards.


But if we reach the lower channel you and all bears are sitting pretty for another round of selling overnight.
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  • #51,817
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:29pm Aug 28, 2012 4:29pm


HAHAHAHA WOW have you ever looked at work like English papers you did years ago and thought I had terrible grammar and misspellings. Well that happens to me all the time as I am always in a hurry and NEED TO SLOW DOWN

Correction below for my retardation lol ....







This is the Resistance I mentioned earlier where London and New York (13hours) could not gain enough strength to push through.

To some this can possibly look like a rounding bottom/ with a hint of Inverse H&S but the right Shoulder has not materialized yet. If we break the resistance that is shown above you will see AUD gun for the Sunday open of
1.04225 which is in the middle of the first channel upwards.


But if we reach the lower channel than all bears are sitting pretty for another round of selling overnight.
  • #51,818
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:39pm Aug 28, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting jplazard2


HAHAHAHA WOW have you ever looked at work like English papers you did years ago and thought I had terrible grammar and misspellings. Well that happens to me all the time as I am always in a hurry and NEED TO SLOW DOWN

Correction below for my retardation lol ....

[color=black][font=Verdana]...

Heheheheh! Well I dont mind that, infact a trader has so many situations, (emotions fundamentals news and the market) that grammar may not be a priority.
  • #51,819
  • Aug 28, 2012 8:04pm Aug 28, 2012 8:04pm
Been rather slow since last night about 2 eastern time.

Would wager there's a lot of caution out there before Friday though. Hoping for a nice quick sell off (and not too much strength before then) if Big Ben just re-hashes the last Minutes release.

If it goes down that way it'll probably be more pronounced in the Euro given that most of the QE excitement seems to be priced in there, but I'll take what I can get.
  • #51,820
  • Aug 28, 2012 8:23pm Aug 28, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting Cdm
Been rather slow since last night about 2 eastern time.

Would wager there's a lot of caution out there before Friday though. Hoping for a nice quick sell off (and not too much strength before then) if Big Ben just re-hashes the last Minutes release.

If it goes down that way it'll probably be more pronounced in the Euro given that most of the QE excitement seems to be priced in there, but I'll take what I can get.
Couldn't agree with you more, such a slow and boring week so far. Can't wait until august is over, and the winter months start rolling in so we can all pick up some pips and make $$$.
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