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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,761
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:12am Aug 28, 2012 9:12am
Quoting Skip2k
Imagine 2 people caught together inside one elastic band; one person weighing 300 pounds and the other one weighing 75 pounds. They try to distance themselves from one another. They walk and walk and they reach a point where the elastic doesn’t stretch anymore. What happen ?
OK, I never tested it, but I’m pretty sure that the 75 pounds one will fly back to point 0.

Now if we apply that theory to this awesome, extraordinary, incredible, awesome (did I say that already) indi with the analogy that D1 is the 300 pounds guy and H1 is the 75 pounds...

I like the image thanks very much, as so I will remember it for ever

Quoting Alorente
The D1 band will repaint in the end. The best way id to enter 3 orders. The first one now, the second one on touch of the band and the third one above the band. If it never crosses the band, you are in with two trades and you can get the third one on the way down. I like to average my entries and my exits. It is impossible to catch the perfect top.
Very much tanks for the explanation !
Also I have a long trade on GU, should cut it right away, my plan was to exit it on the D1 but it seems to me that the uptrend is becoming much weaker.
  • #12,762
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:18am Aug 28, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Fable
I like the image thanks very much, as so I will remember it for ever



Very much tanks for the explanation !
Also I have a long trade on GU, should cut it right away, my plan was to exit it on the D1 but it seems to me that the uptrend is becoming much weaker.
Short GBPUSD seems earlier.It looks like moving to the upper band of H4 and D1 .
  • #12,763
  • Aug 28, 2012 10:59am Aug 28, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Fishcoo
Thanks Al.The new template works well now. But why the H4 D1 TMA slope is so different between my chart and yours?
Eg, I find that there is great different between FXCM and OANDA.FXCM H4 = -0.66 OANDA=-0.57 now.
Many times different brokers have different feeds so one may be different from the other.

Best regards.
  • #12,764
  • Aug 28, 2012 11:21am Aug 28, 2012 11:21am
Bernanke At J-Hole: What He Will Say And What He Won't

And 1 day relative performance of the USD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,765
  • Edited 11:59am Aug 28, 2012 11:34am | Edited 11:59am
Hourly Charts today and performance per percentage.
Today's markets including Crude oil.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Performance.jpg Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude oil.jpg Size: 138 KB
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,766
  • Aug 28, 2012 3:45pm Aug 28, 2012 3:45pm
After a couple of months away due to a work project, I'm back and glad to see that this awesome thread is up and running.

It took me one whole week to read all the posts from where I stopped, but each and every one of them was worth reading. I'm impressed about how the idea has evolved.

Bassramy, you've done an outstanding job in Al's absence. Al, I'm glad you're back. Hope you doing fine with you wife.

Now, I noticed that the rules have changed recently, so I'm still doing some testing, but I have 2 questions though.

1 - As per the system's rules, how could we place a new trade in the middle of an existing and ongoing trend (i.e. H1 and H4 are increasing and higher than 0.4 and D1 is still ranging) ? By the way, should I even care to try to ride trends with the Extreme TMA system ? I understand that the Extreme TMA system only looks for extremes and for the price to turn around... Anyway, I'm just curious if anyone has been using it with success to ride trends (TMA higher than 0.4), instead of catching reversals only.

2 - I enjoy the idea of adding new positions (if I'm not mistaken, it was Al's idea), but when we should do it ? Would adding a new position be OK when price retraces to the TMA middle line (even though we don't have it enabled anymore) and the TMAs' trend are still intact ?

Thanks in advance.

Beto
  • #12,767
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:09pm Aug 28, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting beto21_cwb
After a couple of months away due to a work project, I'm back and glad to see that this awesome thread is up and running.

It took me one whole week to read all the posts from where I stopped, but each and every one of them was worth reading. I'm impressed about how the idea has evolved.

Bassramy, you've done an outstanding job in Al's absence. Al, I'm glad you're back. Hope you doing fine with you wife.

Now, I noticed that the rules have changed recently, so I'm still doing some testing, but I have 2 questions though.

1 - As per...
Hello beto. Everything is fine on the personal front. Thanks.

As far as when to enter in a trend, as explained on post 1 (Exit Rules):

Medium Term Trade (Standard trade): Close the trade when price reaches the opposite H4 TMA band. Reenter trade when price retraces to the centerline of the H4 TMA. Make sure all slope values continue to be either ranging or in the direction of your trade before reentering. You can do this several times during a strong trending move.

This is true also for adding to your original position.

I have been very succesful riding trends, exiting on the bands and reentering at centerline. You can change the input: Show Centerline to TRUE.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,768
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:31pm Aug 28, 2012 5:31pm
I attached some pic of E/U from past 4 months and according to the rules - price broke H4 and D1 TMA only 4 times(black arrows) it mean 1 setup in a month. It is not enought for me.. I want to trade every day :]
So can I trade with same rules on H1, H4 and it will be safe? It was plenty more opportunities(blue arrows).. of course maintaining every other rules.
Another thing, looking at aud/usd, there was no setup around 1.0600. PA broke TMA only on H1.. So, it is wise to trade H1 broke and for example 15M?
As I can see, new rules are less risky, so applause for our mentor Al
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,769
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:51pm Aug 28, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting Alorente
Hello beto. Everything is fine on the personal front. Thanks.

As far as when to enter in a trend, as explained on post 1 (Exit Rules):

Medium Term Trade (Standard trade): Close the trade when price reaches the opposite H4 TMA band. Reenter trade when price retraces to the centerline of the H4 TMA. Make sure all slope values continue to be either ranging or in the direction of your trade before reentering. You can do this several times during a strong trending move.

This is true also for adding to your original position.

I...
Thank you for the kind explanation, master. As always, you're a true gentleman. I'll pay more attention next time, so I won't bother the thread with questions that have already been very well explained. Thanks once again.
  • #12,770
  • Edited 6:41pm Aug 28, 2012 6:30pm | Edited 6:41pm
Al, in a situation where i have on AUDCHF W1 0.56, D1 -1.02, H4 -0.54. Is it compulsory for W1 to fall below -0.40 before i can short or i can short without reference to value of W1 cos on the chart the trend is already coming down. Or how do i apply the rules here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF1.jpg Size: 181 KB
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #12,771
  • Aug 28, 2012 10:04pm Aug 28, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting Tess1
Al, in a situation where i have on AUDCHF W1 0.56, D1 -1.02, H4 -0.54. Is it compulsory for W1 to fall below -0.40 before i can short or i can short without reference to value of W1 cos on the chart the trend is already coming down. Or how do i apply the rules here?
According to the new rules, the PA is below the bottom band of H4 D1 now.And there is not enough room between the current price and the lower D1 band . So you can't short now . We will wait H4 D1 return to the correct slope values for the trade and enter long . Is it right?I am not sure. Maybe Al or bassramy can help us.
  • #12,772
  • Aug 28, 2012 11:10pm Aug 28, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting Tess1
Al, in a situation where i have on AUDCHF W1 0.56, D1 -1.02, H4 -0.54. Is it compulsory for W1 to fall below -0.40 before i can short or i can short without reference to value of W1 cos on the chart the trend is already coming down. Or how do i apply the rules here?
From AL in the first page:

Entry Rules:

1- We will first determine trend in the 3 TMAs by using the TMA Slope indicator values.

Ranging TMA (-0.40 to 0.40): Trades can be placed in both directions.
Buy Only TMA (Above 0.40): Place ONLY Long trades.
Sell Only TMA (Below -0.40): Place ONLY Short trades.
Super Range: Above 0.80: Hold longs till slope value drops under 0.80, at which point you should close all longs.
Below -0.80: Hold shorts till slope value climbs above -0.80, at which point you should close all shorts.

H4, D1, W1 slope values must be either Ranging or higher for Longs or Ranging or lower for shorts.


THEREFORE......

Since W1 TMA slope is positive .56 and D1 is -1.12 that alone eliminates the possibility of a trade on this pair at this moment. The 3 TFs W1, D1 and H4 should all be either ranging (-.40 to .40) or in the same direction either >.40 (for longs) or < -.40 (for shorts) to qualify for this rule.
Hope that helps
Regards
  • #12,773
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:28am Aug 29, 2012 2:28am
Quoting Nes
I attached some pic of E/U from past 4 months and according to the rules - price broke H4 and D1 TMA only 4 times(black arrows) it mean 1 setup in a month. It is not enought for me.. I want to trade every day :]
So can I trade with same rules on H1, H4 and it will be safe? It was plenty more opportunities(blue arrows).. of course maintaining every other rules.
Another thing, looking at aud/usd, there was no setup around 1.0600. PA broke TMA only on H1.. So, it is wise to trade H1 broke and for example 15M?
As I can see, new rules are less risky,...
Nes, you are looking at TMA bands after they have repainted. I am sure price did touch the bands, but after repainting it looks like they didn´t.

Yes, you can lower the time frames of the TMA´s and use the same rules. You can even trade M5, M15 and H1 if you want.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,774
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:33am Aug 29, 2012 2:33am
Quoting Alorente
Nes, you are looking at TMA bands after they have repainted. I am sure price did touch the bands, but after repainting it looks like they didn´t.

Yes, you can lower the time frames of the TMA´s and use the same rules. You can even trade M5, M15 and H1 if you want.
Al,The rule3 and rule4 must be satisfied at the same time,is it right?But sometimes when PA climbed above the top band of H4 D1,the slope is above 0.4.When they return to the correct slope values,the PA is below the top band of H4 D1.

Regards.
  • #12,775
  • Edited 2:44am Aug 29, 2012 2:34am | Edited 2:44am
Quoting Tess1
Al, in a situation where i have on AUDCHF W1 0.56, D1 -1.02, H4 -0.54. Is it compulsory for W1 to fall below -0.40 before i can short or i can short without reference to value of W1 cos on the chart the trend is already coming down. Or how do i apply the rules here?
Tess, I will give you a tip: When in doubt like this, look at other Aud pairs and see if they paint the same picture. For example: AudUsd: W1 0.20, D1 -0.33, H4 -0.37. They are all valid for a short.

I would short AudChf, but I would wait to do it from resistance above, either a MA or the centerline of H1 or H4.

To everyone: Please understand that the rules on Post 1 are very conservative and quite restrictive. If you have one condition missing and all other valid, you must make a judgement call and looking at other pairs with that currency will help you decide that. Also, even though not explicitly mentioned in the rules, it is always a good idea to sell from under tested support and buy from above tested resistance. This is always a good rule to follow. It will prevent getting into a trade too early and will increase your percentage of winners. Valid support and resistance areas are: 50 or 200 MAs, TMA centerlines, daily, weekly and monthly pivot lines, etc.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,776
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:44am Aug 29, 2012 2:44am
Quoting Alorente
Nes, you are looking at TMA bands after they have repainted. I am sure price did touch the bands, but after repainting it looks like they didn´t.

Yes, you can lower the time frames of the TMA´s and use the same rules. You can even trade M5, M15 and H1 if you want.
It is all crystal clear now.. thanks Al.

Greetings
  • #12,777
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:49am Aug 29, 2012 2:49am
Quoting Alorente
Tess, I will give you a tip: When in doubt like this, look at other Aud pairs and see if they paint the same picture. For example: AudUsd: W1 0.20, D1 -0.33, H4 -0.37. They are all valid for a short.

I would short AudChf, but I would wait to do it from resistance above, either a MA or the centerline of H1 or H4.

To everyone: Please understand that the rules on Post 1 are very conservative and quite restrictive. If you have one condition missing and all other valid, you must make a judgement call and looking at other pairs with that...
Al, my AUDUSD tma slope D1 value doesn't match with yours actually I have -0.49 H4 and W1 correspond. Do you have any idea?
thanks
  • #12,778
  • Edited 3:09am Aug 29, 2012 2:51am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting Alorente
Tess, I will give you a tip: When in doubt like this, look at other Aud pairs and see if they paint the same picture. For example: AudUsd: W1 0.20, D1 -0.33, H4 -0.37. They are all valid for a short.

I would short AudChf, but I would wait to do it from resistance above, either a MA or the centerline of H1 or H4.

To everyone: Please understand that the rules on Post 1 are very conservative and quite restrictive. If you have one condition missing and all other valid, you must make a judgement call and looking at other pairs with that...
Yes of course.. and we shouldn't forget about RSI trend lines, breathing system, 200MA angle, coral S/R.. and plenty other things that you teach us Al
  • #12,779
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:53am Aug 29, 2012 2:53am
Quoting vamtop
Al, my AUDUSD tma slope D1 value doesn't match with yours actually I have -0.49 H4 and W1 correspond. Do you have any idea?
thanks
there was only example, D1 slope on aud/usd is now -0.48.
  • #12,780
  • Aug 29, 2012 2:55am Aug 29, 2012 2:55am
Quoting Nes
there was only example, D1 slope on aud/usd is now -0.48.
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