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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,381
  • Aug 14, 2012 1:47am Aug 14, 2012 1:47am
Quoting jkrick33
Shahab didnt see what your plan was for the AU shorts you had on from last week, still in them, closed, looking to enter later on the bull flag?
Hi there,
I shorted AU couple of times and closed them all. But now I am looking to go long.
  • #5,382
  • Aug 14, 2012 1:52am Aug 14, 2012 1:52am
Quoting shahab8b
EU
EU: update
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  • #5,383
  • Aug 15, 2012 11:41am Aug 15, 2012 11:41am
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  • #5,384
  • Aug 15, 2012 3:57pm Aug 15, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU: update
Not bad, called pretty accurately.
  • #5,385
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:12am Aug 16, 2012 6:12am
Possible triple top.
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Hello.
  • #5,386
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:39am Aug 17, 2012 1:39am
Hi Shahab,
I have had this chart posted before ( back in Feb). S&P has twice shown a massive pull back on touching the Mid Line Fork. First time it retraced over 30%, second time just about 20%. Its approaching it again. Although I dont trade s&p I use it as a litmus test for risk analysis.
Regarding your chart on AU, could it be that we are on wave C down on daily? If s&p draw back then AU's scenario looks justified pointing towards low .90s.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #5,387
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:35pm Aug 27, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
I have had this chart posted before ( back in Feb). S&P has twice shown a massive pull back on touching the Mid Line Fork. First time it retraced over 30%, second time just about 20%. Its approaching it again. Although I dont trade s&p I use it as a litmus test for risk analysis.
Regarding your chart on AU, could it be that we are on wave C down on daily? If s&p draw back then AU's scenario looks justified pointing towards low .90s.
Hi tradoholic,
I understand what you are saying. There is a good chance that you are right given the recent bearish stance. However, I am still bullish on equities and AU for that matter. I've started buying AU around current levels with a SL below 1.0150.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,388
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:44pm Aug 27, 2012 7:44pm
USDCHF: short setups on the chart
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  • #5,389
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:47pm Aug 27, 2012 7:47pm
EURGBP: short setups on the chart
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  • #5,390
  • Aug 28, 2012 8:44am Aug 28, 2012 8:44am
EU: getting close to the long target, may be a good place to take shorts when it exceeds the recent high
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  • #5,391
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:39am Aug 28, 2012 9:39am
UCAD: watching these levels
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  • #5,392
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:44am Aug 28, 2012 9:44am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF: short setups on the chart

Missed limit order on UCHF, well it happens, a part of the game.
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  • #5,393
  • Aug 28, 2012 9:47am Aug 28, 2012 9:47am
Quoting shahab8b
EURGBP: short setups on the chart

Follow up with the suggested levels on EG
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  • #5,394
  • Aug 28, 2012 12:14pm Aug 28, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
UCAD: watching these levels

Not a perfect entry, but it's still OK.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,395
  • Aug 28, 2012 2:56pm Aug 28, 2012 2:56pm
Nice thread you got going here! Kudos! Unfortunately no COT analysis lately. Why, if I may ask?

Here a chart of AUDUSD, showing COT net positions near extreme, clear divergence and falling volume. Time to short? Whats your take?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Every bar tells a tale
  • #5,396
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:48pm Aug 28, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting shahab8b
Missed limit order on UCHF, well it happens, a part of the game.
Very nice one. Just would like to ask for your opinion on :

Situation: AUD COT positioning inched to a record high since March while we are seeing an correction/reversal(don't know yet).

my opinion: the macro guys could be buying this pair/fund managers are buying AUD assets(maybe due to its potential safe haven status?), what I mean is there must be a reason for why they are doing it if I am presumably right. I would take this as a sign for another long term up trend formation, and targeting 1.3 or above.

However, I am extremely worried about Chinese economy as they just launched another USD1.4 trillion QE(will bring even more later) and which make me extremely worried about the health of AUD.

Can you share us your thoughts on these kind of mass and possible setups please?
  • #5,397
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:09pm Aug 28, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting ColdLogic
Nice thread you got going here! Kudos! Unfortunately no COT analysis lately. Why, if I may ask?

Here a chart of AUDUSD, showing COT net positions near extreme, clear divergence and falling volume. Time to short? Whats your take?
Thanks! Well as for COT, I usually take a quick look at how big guns are positioned; however, I rely mostly on technical analysis for my trades. As for AU, I think any dips would be bought unless there is a clear trend change.
  • #5,398
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:12pm Aug 28, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting frederic119
Very nice one. Just would like to ask for your opinion on :

Situation: AUD COT positioning inched to a record high since March while we are seeing an correction/reversal(don't know yet).

my opinion: the macro guys could be buying this pair/fund managers are buying AUD assets(maybe due to its potential safe haven status?), what I mean is there must be a reason for why they are doing it if I am presumably right. I would take this as a sign for another long term up trend formation, and targeting 1.3 or above.

However, I am extremely worried...
You are welcome! As I mentioned above, I think the bias for AU is long for now. Equities are doing well and there is a chance for another round of QE which is very bullish for equities, Aussie, Kiwi, and Lonnie for that matter. I need to add, considering the S&P 500 and structure of the chart on AU, NU, and UCAD, I think after a new high and a mid-term bullish run, there will be a serious potential for a long term bear market and USD strength.
  • #5,399
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:19pm Aug 28, 2012 7:19pm
NU: Levels to watch
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  • #5,400
  • Aug 30, 2012 8:09am Aug 30, 2012 8:09am
GU: it may be a good idea to switch from long to short @ 1.5910
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