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AUD/USD

  • #51,781
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:47pm Aug 27, 2012 10:47pm
back in
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  • #51,782
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:49pm Aug 27, 2012 10:49pm
4 hour
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,783
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:51pm Aug 27, 2012 10:51pm
Daily
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,784
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:07pm Aug 27, 2012 11:07pm
Bogus,

ty, and I agree with you that E/A had an amazing run these last two weeeks as EUR/USD broke a solid Res: last week. RSI on E/A is extreme overbought in many TF's so I expect it to trade 1.2025 maybe even .2010 before continuing higher. This will be great as AUD/USD has been hammered since Sunday with no real interest on a B wave retrace on weekly for the next C leg down. I suspect if E/A trades lower aud/usd will spike to old support areas
  • #51,785
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:12pm Aug 27, 2012 11:12pm
As for the difficulty experienced this month Beleive me Dollar has been a bxxxx! Had to cut most of the long and now the concentration on the currency side is heavy short on AUD.

It usually is like this though when a trend change or consolidation (if your a bull) occurs there is alot of deleveraging and chop to cause sl activation and unwanted spikes. But once you have that 'purge' moment in any chart is when it gets easier after that for riding the wave... I personally like to scale in positions on low ends and high ends. Last week basis was 1.0429 then that fake out from CNY numbers caused a spike where I added at 1.05=basis now is a bit higher and I am sitting pretty. I am really looking for either a spike at London or in NY open to 1.0370-85 area to pile on the last short heading into Thursday but we will see..
  • #51,786
  • Aug 28, 2012 12:38am Aug 28, 2012 12:38am
Hi JPLAZARD,

Re your post on hedging, I guess I would call what I do a bit of hedging (probably not technically but for purposes of your post, near enough). I'm relatively new to trading so still working on my approach but basically I try to position myself to be able to benefit from moves up or down. This is partly as I often don't know which way it's going to go and it normally has pullbacks anyway. Thus I think it good to have your positions weighted for the way that price is trending, especially if supported by fundamentals but to also have some positions that will profit if it goes the other way. Part of what I'm learning is to be more careful about whether the current price is high or low (relative to the average of the last year or two as I trade longer term timeframes.) Eg 'recent' high of 1.10, 'recent' low of 94c so simple average of 1.02. Thus current price is good for shorting, especially now that downtrend seems to be forming.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #51,787
  • Aug 28, 2012 12:47am Aug 28, 2012 12:47am
A bit off topic re the thread, but I see 1.2040 as the line in the sand foe e/a shorts.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,788
  • Aug 28, 2012 1:11am Aug 28, 2012 1:11am
Hey everyone,

This just came across my terminal from the Credit suisse credit rate futures where they are pricing in on a forward basis 2 additional cuts this year .The trading this month alone has added more than one potential cut in the past week. This shift is pricing is telling of more cuts sooner possibly 25bps in October and December.

Time will tell but at least one cut looks close to 90% before year end.....

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  • #51,789
  • Aug 28, 2012 2:50am Aug 28, 2012 2:50am
Quick scalp off coming to those here

1.0386 on the low end and 1.0396 high end. I will be selling come NY open if we are at higher levels

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  • #51,790
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:09am Aug 28, 2012 4:09am
I am almost tempted to add to a short at this level but I am waiting for NY or this next hour of trading to confirm...this move looks to break the Resistance (red) and I still think the Long move mentioned above looks to play out..So far we tapped 88.6

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  • #51,791
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:23am Aug 28, 2012 4:23am
Quoting jplazard
I am almost tempted to add to a short at this level but I am waiting for NY or this next hour of trading to confirm...this move looks to break the Resistance (red) and I still think the Long move mentioned above looks to play out..So far we tapped 88.6

Attachment
Good charts. I have been watching the tutorial videos for the platform. To be honest, there is so much to it that it is kind of intimidating. It looks like the cock pit of a UFO.. ha ha ha .
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,792
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:40am Aug 28, 2012 4:40am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Good charts. I have been watching the tutorial videos for the platform. To be honest, there is so much to it that it is kind of intimidating. It looks like the cock pit of a UFO.. ha ha ha .
Hi Pair-Me-Up,
Do you mind me asking which Trade platform you are referring to?


JPLazard,
Keep up the good work! I am very impressed with your knowledge and the brief background I read a few posts up.
  • #51,793
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:42am Aug 28, 2012 4:42am
How I wish I could go back to scalping lol it was much less stressful most times than position trading ..........

Lower target reached for the scalp mentioned earlier...

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  • #51,794
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:44am Aug 28, 2012 4:44am
100pips thank you Pair is speaking about Thinkorswim.com (bought out by TDameritrade) and they offer some of the best education (free) out there to new futures traders or options traders
  • #51,795
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:53am Aug 28, 2012 4:53am
Quoting jplazard
100pips thank you Pair is speaking about Thinkorswim.com (bought out by TDameritrade) and they offer some of the best education (free) out there to new futures traders or options traders
Interesting, I might have to take a look around their website. I'm always up for learning something new.
  • #51,796
  • Aug 28, 2012 4:56am Aug 28, 2012 4:56am
NIce blogger site.Some really cool tools attached...Seems the divide is still down the middle between L/S on AUD
  • #51,797
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:07am Aug 28, 2012 5:07am
Quoting jplazard
NIce blogger site.Some really cool tools attached...Seems the divide is still down the middle between L/S on AUD
Oh thanks man. I put that together for anybody who was interested and slapped the link in my signature.

Yep, I'm expecting indecision until after Jackson Hole. I am almost 99% certain that no additional QE will happen, just more verbal diarrhea.

Needless to say I am bearish on AUD as well as most other USD cross pairs as I see we are at a multi-year low with the USD. If the $hit hits the fan (which I'm expecting) within the next 3-6 months (possibly sooner) then money will flow out of equities as well as emerging markets and will find "safety" in the USD.

It's only a matter of time now, but again, that is only my opinion based off of what I'm seeing.
  • #51,798
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:28am Aug 28, 2012 5:28am
I agree also if we hit the fan even if no announcement on Thursday Dollar futures will rally..

I am a bear on AUD as well shorting since 1.05-1.0425 area however today looks to be a big move to the upside potentially. The Fitch press release which just came out saw some solid offers in Dollars...

1.0365 area looks to be the floor for AUD today anything trading lower than this I am shorting just below...Today will spike though as the market will need a full day (because it is very emotional with massive mood swings) to digest this news...

If we manage to break the AUD/USD Sunday open here is the setup for longs today and Where I will be building the shorts... For you longs which I am not in your camp We bears are going away today so you can take over...
Levels below...

Walls of confluence between 1.0409-1.0427 which we could break through and next short at 1.0433 then on the high end if we reach another short at 1.0452

Bears its time to sleep today but EOD we will be back like donkey Kong (never was good with insults)


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  • #51,799
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:36am Aug 28, 2012 5:36am
Quoting jplazard
I agree also if we hit the fan even if no announcement on Thursday Dollar futures will rally..

I am a bear on AUD as well shorting since 1.05-1.0425 area however today looks to be a big move to the upside potentially. The Fitch press release which just came out saw some solid offers in Dollars...

1.0365 area looks to be the floor for AUD today anything trading lower than this I am shorting just below...T[b]oday will spike though as the market will need a full day (because it is very emotional with massive mood swings) to digest this...

Thanks for the info. The Fitch release was in regards to a possible US downgrade should QE3 occur right?
  • #51,800
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:43am Aug 28, 2012 5:43am
No I personally don't think QE3 will come because the argument is not valid at the moment for more stimulus.

Unemployment is what's worrying them the most otherwise other key data points are pointing upwards....

From the finance Backround Id rather they come in sooner than later as China announced last week and UK is on the back end of their stimulus..We have a big cloud coming over the horizon and that is Japan...They will be in news by end of year and q12013 their cash strapped and their bond market is about ready to capitulate..The last thing we need is another downgrade here the cost of Capital will go through the roof and we face an ever increasing issue of Russia/China/Japan dumping US treas,2,10s onto the market which will be instant crash

QE=downgrade
no QE= equals downgrade.

Ben is correct when he said multiple times their is so much we can do on monetary policy the government is playing chicken with our debt and they need to get serious whomever is in office or we will see reality bite us hard when claims come due and the Treasure has to borrow from the Pension Pool to pay short term claims like they did earlier this year.
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