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  • #51,761
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:02pm Aug 27, 2012 4:02pm
Hello all Bears,

Hope you had a continued feeding frenzy from this morning. I am still hearing bullishness from other threads on AUD since the Sunday open and I understand their premise of Opinion that bears will not succeed but I wish to add another fact that occurred in the Bear camp these last 12 hours to add yet another nail in their coffin.
occured (see pic)

FACT: 7/12 to 7/25 rising support has been broken and closed below (see pic)
This is a morning pic but you can see where we are trading now to know this is true.

Here is the complete Bear argument for those who still have not read it or have deviated from fact to opinion pieces.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post5959787

I will state as I do believe with the Bulls(flexibility) Eur/aud could come down back to 1.20 giving AUD/USD a minor pop back to 1.04 but make no mistake the MOVE INTO JACKSON HOLE WILL BE QUICK AND UGLY.

Take A look at /S&P, OIL, COPPER its right in front of us get ready….

Best of luck all tonight and if you feel yourself wavering from the bear camp on this move Us bears are not too far off to reassure you that you’re on the right path.

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  • #51,762
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:18pm Aug 27, 2012 4:18pm
Lots of bears around Jackson Hole
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,763
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:14pm Aug 27, 2012 6:14pm
HEDGING:::::

I wanted to write later this week my approach on a possible hedge in my /6A (aud) short heading to the announcement day but wanted to hear from both bears/bulls alike if they are considering a similar approach?

For intraday traders who hold short periods this might not be valid to you but you are more than welcome to share past experiences on hedging or what if any ideas you might have on Jackson hole day 1&2

Are you going to hedge heading into the announcement?
Or are you going to just move your shorts/longs that have been established to BE+10..20..ect in case we get an 'surprise' move?

what approach will you take if you do decide to hedge your main (big) position: Options?, buying or selling the same pair to offset? Taking a cross aud trade to offset?

And lastly, Has hedging personally helped you in managing a trade or risk or is it just not what fits your plan for a directional move play.


I am curious on peoples thoughts here as we all stake our claim on long vs. short and post live calls all the time but I would also be interested in discussing peoples 'trade structure' wheatear long term holder or intraday. No prop information needs to be given away I just think it would insightful that we not only discuss live calls and levels as the market is active, but also discuss mistakes, goals, more about your trading approach so new traders or seasoned alike can view different approaches.

I will post my hedge Idea once I finish running the numbers until then I will see you guys at London.
  • #51,764
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:32pm Aug 27, 2012 6:32pm
i hate poor entry choices. had a short earlier but my dynamic stop popped me at +15 rather then +40 potential.
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  • #51,765
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:41pm Aug 27, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting sdcasper
i hate poor entry choices. had a short earlier but my dynamic stop popped me at +15 rather then +40 potential.
The market is merciless... don't forget that. Atleast you are positive.
  • #51,766
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:43pm Aug 27, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting sidhujag
The market is merciless... don't forget that. Atleast you are positive.
i keep making the same entry mistakes. and then wonder why i'm negative 10 pips from the start. i started to make better decisions two weeks ago and saw profits for the first time. now almost 4-5 trades in a row just lousy choices.

i want kick this monsters ass.
  • #51,767
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:47pm Aug 27, 2012 6:47pm
Quoting sdcasper
i keep making the same entry mistakes. and then wonder why i'm negative 10 pips from the start. i started to make better decisions two weeks ago and saw profits for the first time. now almost 4-5 trades in a row just lousy choices.

i want kick this monsters ass.
That is the design, you have to overcome the 10 pips sometimes... or choose not to by designing your R:R... sometimes say if you go for a 10 reward 1 risk yyou will be stopped out most likely... but think of the long term curve.
  • #51,768
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:10pm Aug 27, 2012 7:10pm
two step
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  • #51,769
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:48pm Aug 27, 2012 7:48pm
This is what you call deleveraging by the big players..When Sunday open has wild swings of 20-30ticks and now after hours we are exper. this vol you know that this is a sign to come on a bigger purge or a spike to old support 1.0380-.04

We could see a floor here for a couple hours or into London as mentioned before bigger blocks are traded around 'key levels' 1, .25, .50, .75 this is what we used to do when the market was quiet or we needed to add or lighten up on bigger holdings.

As a heavily short bear (30c) I am praying we spike back to 1.04 or 1.0385 area so I can sell another 10. Rsi is extreme on several timeframes here so this could be a hint to the bots on dipping their toes in.
  • #51,770
  • Aug 27, 2012 8:08pm Aug 27, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting jplazard2
This is what you call deleveraging by the big players..When Sunday open has wild swings of 20-30ticks and now after hours we are exper. this vol you know that this is a sign to come on a bigger purge or a spike to old support 1.0380-.04

We could see a floor here for a couple hours or into London as mentioned before bigger blocks are traded around 'key levels' 1, .25, .50, .75 this is what we used to do when the market was quiet or we needed to add or lighten up on bigger holdings.

As a heavily short bear (30c) I am praying we spike back to 1.04...
When you mentioned the key levels of .25 .50 .75 Are you looking at currency futures? If not, how does one going about viewing this levels, and how can they help with correlating Aud/Usd. So far, you seem to be very accurate with your forcast.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,771
  • Aug 27, 2012 8:56pm Aug 27, 2012 8:56pm
Hey Pair,

Sure when I say these levels I am talking about big banks or funds placing new orders/lightening up on orders/or placing of behalf of the commercials hedging currency risk (easier on accounting).

I know this two ways one from experience working on a desk of a former i- bank where we either had a priority list of trading on behalf of our account or executing (efficently, and under the radar) customer orders where we did it at these levels for the 'block trades' or in forex it is called a 'Yard'

Now you can certainly see this on the futures side when looking at Time&Sales to an extent but the bigger orders are either executed directly between banks (still go through exchanges on futures side)and broken down. Or they will execute on interbank (spot) which is forex by breaking up trades going through a network of banks staying under the radar. But we all used to do this around the levels mentioned above for simplicity purposes.

Now the retail trader has their stochastics, RSI, MA's and other technical indicators to pick entries/exits and banks use a variation of some TA as well, however becasuse orders are much bigger they can blow through most MA's or indicators in a 'clip' W/O worry.

They focus more on congested Stops, option barriers, or sitting orders to first thin the walls, then they will come in lightly as the price moves back to the mean. (retail gets sucked in again might add larger orders and stops at the same levels) From there is when they hit the bid or offer hard not only triggering stops but forcing cover on futures side as well causing an ever increasing move.

The futures market and the spot market are priced by a wider spread that converges to the same price once the futures contract expires in 3months time or however a paticular exchage sets the expiry.

Example being right now Australian futures which I trade is priced at 1.0337 whers forex(spot) is priced AUD/USD 1.0355 SPREAD OF 18

Last week the spread was 20 it is nearing experation and the two prices will converge on expiration usually it is Forex that follws the future contract on expiry day..

Here is a quick trade example where you can look in the future to trade on ROUND CENT moves.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post5955785
  • #51,772
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:10pm Aug 27, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting jplazard2
Hey Pair,

Sure when I say these levels I am talking about big banks or funds placing new orders/lightening up on orders/or placing of behalf of the commercials hedging currency risk (easier on accounting).

I know this two ways one from experience working on a desk of a former i- bank where we either had a priority list of trading on behalf of our account or executing (efficently, and under the radar) customer orders where we did it at these levels for the 'block trades' or in forex it is called a 'Yard'

Now you can certainly see this on the...

For a 24 year old. (As it says on your profile). You certainly know tons and have lots of experience than this old guy. ha ha ha.. Also, I am going over the training videos for the platform that you use. I am amazed at how much info it offers. As far as Moving Averages and lagging indicators. I just focus on price patterns, candles, trendlines, s/r, fundamentals, and correlated markets. I still suck at it... but trying to get better. So, hopefully my old brain can still obsorb what I need to learn to succeed in this business.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,773
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:25pm Aug 27, 2012 9:25pm
Lol thank you. I quit school when I was much younger and pounded at the pavement trying to get a job at an Ibank and did at 17 as a errand boy. Finally after a couple years I was trusted and trained enough to be put in charge of responsibilities that people 3 times my age were doing.



Glad your taking a look into futures as it is a great market for transparency and helps after hours when the spot forex market is dead. That company is great and they offer amazing training for free so you can learn faster...

As for progress you will get there it is not an overnight process...People go to school for 4+ years to learn their field...when I was much younger I demo traded for 2 years before placing my first live trade.


There are some really great resources here from other traders who offer invaluable advice and elsewhere most for no cost...Be on the lookout though for those that give vague calls only to tell you the secret to trading once you subscribe to their site..Forex is the biggest market in the world not for trading but for scams and get rich quick schemes..
  • #51,774
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:29pm Aug 27, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting jplazard
MIDNIGHT FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Futures market predicts SPOT market's next move before it happens................

I wanted to mention to those still learning to trade AUD/USD how beneficial it is to obtain a futures account whether funded or unfunded so that your able to see the volume on futures side which if your trading spot AUD/USD will help you with EARLIER & BETTER entry and picking intraday tops /bottoms/moment moves before they happen.


I know most all of you know that the futures market follows spot market to the T but there are...

What does this mean? --> (/6A)
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,775
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:34pm Aug 27, 2012 9:34pm
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...fications.html


/6a is the ticker symbol for Australian dollar futures. It is expressed other ways on other platforms but TOS its inputed as /6A

above is the AUD contract specification for the futures contract
  • #51,776
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:36pm Aug 27, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting jplazard2
Lol thank you. I quit school when I was much younger and pounded at the pavement trying to get a job at an Ibank and did at 17 as a errand boy. Finally after a couple years I was trusted and trained enough to be put in charge of responsibilities that people 3 times my age were doing.



[color=black][font=Verdana]Glad your taking a look into futures as it is a great market for transparency and helps after hours when the spot forex market is dead. That company is great and they offer amazing training...
Awesome story of trial and success. I live in Taiwan, so not many forex seminars in English. Plus, I don't want to pay someone who only teaches and doesn't trade themselves. Most of the time I have to down load books to read about forex, etc. Some of the books are a complete waste of time. And I think, thank goodness that I could download them first. But I like how you lay down your facts on your calls, that way others can see how you came to your conclusions. You are also willing to help others to learn more. Your parents hopefully are very proud of you young man!
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,777
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:40pm Aug 27, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting jplazard2
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...fications.html


/6a is the ticker symbol for Australian dollar futures. It is expressed other ways on other platforms but TOS its inputed as /6A

above is the AUD contract specification for the futures contract
I see... Right now I went long on Aud/Usd and I am getting hammered. ha ha ha. The Eur dollar seems stronger than the Aud dollar for the moment in their 3 way tug of war with the US dollar. On the Daily for the Eur/Aud it looks like it is trying to form a tweezer top. Time will tell.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,778
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:06pm Aug 27, 2012 10:06pm
Ex news AUD will be dead at these levels until London or about 5 hours from now depending on liquidity levels. This is a chop bot or scalpers market right now (very small scalps) As for EUR/AUD AUD/USD the correlation is very strong these last 12 days especially. Historically EUR/AUD and AUD/USD have been inverse plays but since flows are slowly making their ways back to EUR/USD you might see funds come out of the aud play and they way they do this is Lond EUR/AUD sending AUD/USD lower.

Here is chart of YTD on a correlation standpoint the reading is near -1 (Hihgly inverse) until we get to 0.5-0 on correlation the long EUR/AUD short AUD/USD play is the way to go i willl post a chart shortly the computer need a reboot running too slow
  • #51,779
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:30pm Aug 27, 2012 10:30pm
Here is what I was talking about on EUR/AUD AUD/USD correlation.

this is another strong case on why AUD will continue to fall because funds will start to make their way back to EUR/USD however I did not mention this as it was fundemental info and I only try to stick with fact on charting.

The correlation is getting higer (inverse) since last week and as you see EUR/AUD has broke above resistance. Now AUD/USD should complete Support and from there its no mans land on where we could be heading my target is mid .90 on A$ but we need to get through 1.03 first before that is even possible.

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  • #51,780
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:45pm Aug 27, 2012 10:45pm
Hi JP. Good stuff. I'm looking at e/a as a possible short. The 1.2060 level, and if it continues higher, 1.2140ish. Ill post a chart. It looks to me like a/u is drifting lower rather than moving down with any commitment. I'm short and in profit, but expect to get stopped at BE. It's been a hard market this month.
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