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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,661
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:40am Aug 27, 2012 4:40am
Appreciate your sharing the links Bassramy thank you kindly

Quoting bassramy
Go here read everything you can.

http://cotbase.com/
http://www.babypips.com/school/the-c...-strategy.html
http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/co...nt-of-traders/
http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/

Regards,
B.R.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #12,662
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:10am Aug 27, 2012 5:10am
Daily Scanner, Slope Values and Strengths Stats.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily scanner, slope strenght and values.jpg Size: 128 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,663
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:13am Aug 27, 2012 5:13am
Al, I hope your new life with your lovely wife is going well my friend!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #12,664
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:29am Aug 27, 2012 5:29am
Quoting bassramy
Follow the rules of the system on the first page and don't mess around with the settings unless AL says so or until u master the system.
I tend to think out of the box and use 2.5 on some pairs and 2 on others as a personal preference, and that only after a thorough back and forward testing.

Just to be clear :

Multiplier 2 is for the narrower range pairs with catch the wider pairs too but leaves a lot of pips on the table.

Multiplier 2.5 is for the mid-range pairs which catch 90 % of the narrower range pairs, 95 - 98 % of the mid-range...
I'm not an expert here, only a user but from other angle: higher multiplier (for example 2.5 like yours) - wider TMA - PA rarely cross TMA - less trades - less risk exposed...
That's my way of thinking
  • #12,665
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:29am Aug 27, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Nes
I'm not an expert here, only a user but from other angle: higher multiplier (for example 2.5 like yours) - wider TMA - PA rarely cross TMA - less trades - less risk exposed...
That's my way of thinking
A valid risk management tactic, less TMA Band cross ( up and down ) = less signals = less exposure to the markets ( Less trades ) = less risk .

On the other hand, wider TMA bands = More risk that the PA won't reach the other band specially with the narrow range Pairs = more risk of a reversal to the entry point and beyond = More stop loss hit and/or recovery = more losses and/or drawdowns.

In my opinion the 2.5 tend to be the multiplier who catch the Narrow, mid and wide range pairs with less risk and drawdown and leaves about 10 % pips on the table on the wide-range pairs in volatile, non volatile and low liquidity / volume periods.

Of course don't forget that those conditions applies more to ranging markets than to trending ones.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,666
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:56am Aug 27, 2012 6:56am
Quoting bassramy
A valid risk management tactic, less TMA Band cross ( up and down ) = less signals = less exposure to the markets ( Less trades ) = less risk .

On the other hand, wider TMA bands = More risk that the PA won't reach the other band specially with the narrow range Pairs = more risk of a reversal to the entry point and beyond = More stop loss hit and/or recovery = more losses and/or drawdowns.

In my opinion the 2.5 tend to be the multiplier who catch the Narrow, mid and wide range pairs with less risk and drawdown and leaves about 10 % pips on...
I have problem with patience, so if I must wait for PA to reach TMA on 2.5 multiplier, I could probably eat my keyboard xD
Best way for me is wait for PA to touch TMA for second time, then price often show divergence on RSI and trix. In common with system rules and other indicators it is frequently hight probability trade
Thanks a lot for show us cotbase.com, I include it to my daily analysis.

Greetings.
  • #12,667
  • Edited 11:38am Aug 27, 2012 10:51am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting Nes
Thanks a lot for show us cotbase.com, I include it to my daily analysis.
Greetings.
You mean weekly analysis because it is published every Friday @ 3:30 pm EST by the CFTC, anyway you're welcome.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,668
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:01am Aug 27, 2012 11:01am
hi all,
gove us our results with such a system

if its less than 20% month, why keep it?
and how many hours a day you spend for it?
  • #12,669
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:05am Aug 27, 2012 11:05am
Quoting tp0440
Well, I didn't think this will happen so drastically... but was pinpointed almost to the pip.

Al. What will you do now? Recovery? Let it run? Close?

BR
Iīm accumulating many lots on UsdJpy for the long term (1 year). I am convinced that UsdJpy is going back to 120.00 and I am willing to wait it out. I may do some trading with one half of the position on the way up, but will hold till at least 84.00. October is critical because the Japanese government will run out of money to cover expenses by then. This will begin to be discounted during September. We can still test the lows before moving higher. There are no guarantees.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,670
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:15am Aug 27, 2012 11:15am
Quoting bassramy
US Dollar May Have Set Important Bottom vs. Major Currencies

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast-08.27.2012


EURUSD: Preparing to Re-Enter Short Position


AUDUSD: [url="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/candlesticks/aud-usd/2012/08/24/AUDUSD_Key_Channel_on_the_Verge_of_Caving.html"][u]Key...
These closely mirror my positions right now:

UsdJpy: See previous post.

AudUsd: Still holding and will stagger my exits all the way down to .97. My first exit is at 1.0350 and they will run all the way down to 0.97.

UsdCad: Holding my long position. This pair has been slower moving up than I expected, but I still expect a move to 1.02 to 1.03 area soon.

NzdUsd: I have increased my short position (0.8140) and will begin exiting at 0.8018 down to 0.7910.

EurUsd: I have started a short position at 1.2550 and will add to it if it drops this week. My short term target potential (30 days) is as low as 1.1900. This one is risky though, due to potential news swings. Make sure your position is small on this one.

In Summary: Everything still looks according to plan except for UsdCad which is lower than I expected at this point.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,671
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:18am Aug 27, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Connected
Al, I hope your new life with your lovely wife is going well my friend!
It is going very well indeed, my friend. Thanks for asking.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,672
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:21am Aug 27, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Nes
I have problem with patience, so if I must wait for PA to reach TMA on 2.5 multiplier, I could probably eat my keyboard xD
Best way for me is wait for PA to touch TMA for second time, then price often show divergence on RSI and trix. In common with system rules and other indicators it is frequently hight probability trade
Thanks a lot for show us cotbase.com, I include it to my daily analysis.

Greetings.
If you canīt wait for the opposite band,
exit at centerline. You will get more trades this way and it is a more conservative method. Just change the input in FastTma (Show Centerline) to TRUE. Enjoy. Many times, I exit one half of the position at centerline and ride the other half to the opposite band.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,673
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:38am Aug 27, 2012 11:38am
Quoting atlante11
hi all,
gove us our results with such a system

if its less than 20% month, why keep it?
and how many hours a day you spend for it?
How many hours a day? It depends on the time frame you trade. H4 or D1 doesnīt require much time. Maybe checking the charts once or twice a day is enough. Place your TP at centerline or opposite band and go play golf or enjoy life. Many times you will find your target price has been hit when you check back. This is also a good strategy for night trading.

Everyone is different, but you should be able to gain 20% to 40% per month if you follow the rules and spread your bets on several pairs.

Drawdown? Yes. This system will occasionally result in large drawdown (Up to 40%). I use recovery when this happens. I do not use stop losses except for a distant emergency SL. Once I decide on a position, I have the patience to see it through. Sometimes it happens in a few days, sometimes in a few weeks. In the long run, price will visit the opposite band. That is how price action behaves. I am trading D1 at this time. What I do to fight drawdown is withdraw 90% of my profits every month and leave 10% to increase the account. Even if some awful month in the future I have extremely bad results, I will have withdrawn much, much more than the account balance, so no real worries. I have not blown an account yet, but on one occasion it did drop to 70% drawdown before making it all the way back. In the meantime I have withdrawn large amounts of profit which are now in other, more secure investments.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,674
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:54am Aug 27, 2012 11:54am
Just take a Look at this if you can believe it.

It's quiet out there; too quiet. But if you were watching carefully this morning, everyone's favorite government-subsidized bank - Citigroup - flash-crashed to the tune of a $1.2bn market-cap loss in a fraction under 100 milliseconds. A 1.3% micro-crash on absolutely massive volume so perfectly visualized thanks to Nanex. When does this 'liquidity-providing' fiasco stop?

When It All Goes Bidless: What Losing $1 Billion In 100 Milliseconds Looks Like

Angela Merkel Just Revealed the Real Situation in Europe
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,675
  • Aug 27, 2012 12:29pm Aug 27, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting Alorente
If you canīt wait for the opposite band,
exit at centerline. You will get more trades this way and it is a more conservative method. Just change the input in FastTma (Show Centerline) to TRUE. Enjoy. Many times, I exit one half of the position at centerline and ride the other half to the opposite band.
Al, You misunderstood me, I can't wait to enter, no to exit
For exit, I have my own 3 part strategy. divide position into 3 pieces, 1 TP on +40pip, 2 TP on + 80pip, 3 part go on to the another band =D
It is reduce the risk.
  • #12,676
  • Aug 27, 2012 12:45pm Aug 27, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting Alorente
These closely mirror my positions right now:

UsdJpy: See previous post.

AudUsd: Still holding and will stagger my exits all the way down to .97. My first exit is at 1.0350 and they will run all the way down to 0.97.

UsdCad: Holding my long position. This pair has been slower moving up than I expected, but I still expect a move to 1.02 to 1.03 area soon.

NzdUsd: I have increased my short position (0.8140) and will begin exiting at 0.8018 down to 0.7910.

EurUsd: I have started a short position at 1.2550 and will add to it if it drops...
Master Al, thanks for your analysis. This kind of analysis always make trading easy for us. You and Bassramy are doing a great job on these thread and i believe that is the reason why the thread is waxing stronger by the day. Always waiting to learn from your analysis and i am really learning fast. Keep it up.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #12,677
  • Edited 2:49pm Aug 27, 2012 1:41pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting Nes
Al, You misunderstood me, I can't wait to enter, no to exit
For exit, I have my own 3 part strategy. divide position into 3 pieces, 1 TP on +40pip, 2 TP on + 80pip, 3 part go on to the another band =D
It is reduce the risk.
Well, then enter in three parts also. First early, second about perfect and the last part late. The average price will be just right and you wonīt be angry because you were too early again.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,678
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:23pm Aug 27, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting Alorente
Well, then enter in three parts also. First early, second about perfect and the last part late. The average price will be just just right and you wonīt be angry because you were too early again.
So obvious and I did not think of that.. it will reduce my risk exposed a lot.
The power of knowledge is not to have it but to teach others.
Thank you master Al, you are Great one for me

Greetings.
  • #12,679
  • Edited 2:51pm Aug 27, 2012 2:27pm | Edited 2:51pm
After careful deliberation I have decided to join my friend Nanningbob and change the period setting of the Slope Indicator from 56 to 20. Bobīs painstaking research has determined that the setting of 20 is better for two reasons:

1- Much less repainting. Only 20 candles will suffer repainting instead of 56.

2- The new -0.8 to 0.8 Super Range. With a setting of 20, our normal ranging zone of -0.40 to 0.40 will remain the same, BUT a new Super Range is created between 0.80 and -0.80. The new Super range rule is simple:

When Slope is above 0.80, hold longs till Slope drops under 0.80. You can even add to your long position as you cross above 0.80.

When Slope is below -0.80 hold shorts till Slope climbs above -0.80. You can add to your short position as slope crosses below -0.80.

This is about as sure a bet as you are going to get. The percentage of success is staggering. Check it out in your charts.

I am attaching the new 20 period Slope indi and a new MTF indi created by Baluda which also works with the 20 period and shows several slope indi time frames on the same window. I am also including a fantastic Baluda indi that gives you the slope values of all the currencies in real time and places them in order in 3 columns: Ranging, 0.40 to -0.40 and 0.80 to -0.80.

These three indicators will increase your profits. I am currently using them in my setup.

The new Super Rule and the three new indis will be posted on Page 1.

The 3 indicators are now in the new zip file on post 1.

My most enthusiastic THANK YOU goes to Nanningbob and Baluda for their great work on Bobīs fantastic 10.2 trading system.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 10.2 TMA slope v.1.4B 4.30.mq4   10 KB | 1,308 downloads
File Type: ex4 TMASlopeMTF.ex4   10 KB | 1,388 downloads
File Type: mq4 SlopeValues.mq4   28 KB | 1,350 downloads
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,680
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:39pm Aug 27, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting bassramy
A valid risk management tactic, less TMA Band cross ( up and down ) = less signals = less exposure to the markets ( Less trades ) = less risk .

On the other hand, wider TMA bands = More risk that the PA won't reach the other band specially with the narrow range Pairs = more risk of a reversal to the entry point and beyond = More stop loss hit and/or recovery = more losses and/or drawdowns.

In my opinion the 2.5 tend to be the multiplier who catch the Narrow, mid and wide range pairs with less risk and drawdown and leaves about 10 % pips on the...
Bassramy, your dedication and positive contributions have landed your name in the Extreme TMA Hall of Fame. Congratulations.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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