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AUD/USD

  • #51,741
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:59pm Aug 26, 2012 6:59pm
Cdm,

Great points I agree if the approval comes through EUR/USD would continue higher but this might not mean a higher AUD/USD also.

Some European indices are trading at a multiple of 10 and if this is indeed a bottom on the EUR the funds could flow from treasuries, Repos, Bank deposits and hot currency plays like the AUD. I pointed out briefly last week about correlation between EUR/AUD and AUD/USD and if we start to see EUR optimism take hold the chart would reverse like clockwork. Now I agree historically EUR/USD and AUD/USD have followed each other in synch (especially during 06-08' but the EURO has been hammered so much I am relying more on the EUR/AUD AUD/USD inverse correlation to play out here if flows really do shift back to Europe. See below as this year's correlation coefficient reading has been near -1 YTD
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  • #51,742
  • Aug 26, 2012 7:14pm Aug 26, 2012 7:14pm
Nice catch indeed, Eur/Aud was a beast of a short until it's reversal recently- and given your layout as well as the fundamentals it seems that the divergence may well continue right through the ruling.

Will likely work based on this assumption, all other things equal (Fed/ECB/China). Many thanks.
  • #51,743
  • Aug 26, 2012 7:22pm Aug 26, 2012 7:22pm
Agree

Fed, Draghi, Merkel have not been the best of friends to the shorts this year and they are the biggest walls to overcome. We will see how they squeeze or confirm shorts Friday/Saturday
  • #51,744
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:20pm Aug 26, 2012 8:20pm
Off to bed for a few zz's but here are levels for short oppertunities. Or you can wait till we break major support below 1.0380
RSI will look to trade back above 80 and this equates to 3 levels (ex suprise news)
L1: 1.0431
L2: 1.0440-45
L3 for higher probability reversal lower 1.0472.

I have a full line on (20contracts) but do have -5 more waiting 1.0370.
GL all .
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  • #51,745
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:21pm Aug 26, 2012 8:21pm
Anybody know exactly what just happened to AUD?

I'm long EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, and short AUD/USD, AUD/JPY


I didn't see any news events but looks like a pretty sharp drop, hey I'm not complaining just curious...
  • #51,746
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:22pm Aug 26, 2012 8:22pm
I'm wondering the same thing!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #51,747
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:23pm Aug 26, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting dab
I'm wondering the same thing!
Haha, I was in the red about 150 pips with all of my positions, I look back up and I was 200+ pips in the green!
  • #51,748
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:46pm Aug 26, 2012 8:46pm
Some trader must have fat fingered his keyboard!
  • #51,749
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:49pm Aug 26, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Anybody know exactly what just happened to AUD?

I'm long EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, and short AUD/USD, AUD/JPY


I didn't see any news events but looks like a pretty sharp drop, hey I'm not complaining just curious...
Dissapointing CNY fix and HSBC downgrading China growth.
  • #51,750
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:56pm Aug 26, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Some trader must have fat fingered his keyboard!
LOL

Looks like a pretty big order(s) that got sent through. At least they sent the pair in my direction...

I noticed though that it bounced directly off of the monthly pivot which is also the daily S1 @ 1.03715. This is also exactly at the 23 retracement level from the swing low (.95800) of June 1st and the swing high (1.06120) of August 9th.

Looks like there was quite a bit of support at that level. Hopefully we will attack this area of support later today.
  • #51,751
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:58pm Aug 26, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting Hyperion
Dissapointing CNY fix and HSBC downgrading China growth.
Thanks for the info Hyperion.
  • #51,752
  • Aug 27, 2012 1:25am Aug 27, 2012 1:25am
Nice little wicks appearing these last couple hours near 'major support' on AUD. We are seeing some interest come in lightly on the bid in futures for a possible pop but rest assured At my former employer we always used to trade major blocks at round cent, .25, .50 .75 levels causing a halt or bashing stops. If we hold this support into NY open then look to sell at 1.04, 1.0425, and the top area of 1.0435.

FOR Those still not convinced about the retrace we will see in AUD/USD and still believe buy buy buy buy refer to the bear's side of the argument
which contains FACTS mixed in w/ a hint of personal Opinion.

Bear's P(F)OV
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post5959787


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  • #51,753
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:14am Aug 27, 2012 7:14am
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem "solved!!"

The daily chart below shows the wave count.

http://i46.tinypic.com/2hpiqrq.png

On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel, it should be the start of wave 5. Watch carefully and wait patiently for wave 5. It can a really powerful bullish up move.

http://i47.tinypic.com/24c6vrl.png
  • #51,754
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:54am Aug 27, 2012 7:54am
Interesting charts ForexGames.
I'm not an Elliott Waver...so maybe you can help me with this...
Why do you consider the first 255 pip correction Wave 2, but don't consider the 228 pip correction a wave or the 270 pip correction after that?

Quoting ForexMGames
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem "solved!!"

The daily chart below shows the wave count.

http://i46.tinypic.com/2hpiqrq.png

On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel,...
  • #51,755
  • Aug 27, 2012 8:22am Aug 27, 2012 8:22am
Quoting Hookem28
Interesting charts ForexGames.
I'm not an Elliott Waver...so maybe you can help me with this...
Why do you consider the first 255 pip correction Wave 2, but don't consider the 228 pip correction a wave or the 270 pip correction after that?
i use elliott wave mainly on the daily charts. Why i choose wave 1 as wave 1? I saw a clear pullbacks after wave 1 at 1.0224. After the pullback to form wave 2, we see another clear 5 up mini-waves. This 5 mini-waves forms a bigger wave, which i label as wave 3.

Elliott wave counting is subjective. Though there are several guidelines to determine the proper wave counting.
  • #51,756
  • Aug 27, 2012 10:45am Aug 27, 2012 10:45am
Quoting ForexMGames
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem "solved!!"

The daily chart below shows the wave count.

http://i46.tinypic.com/2hpiqrq.png

On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel,...
great ew analysis
  • #51,757
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:02am Aug 27, 2012 11:02am
Quoting ForexMGames
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem "solved!!"

The daily chart below shows the wave count.

On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel, it should be the start of wave 5. Watch...
Do you still believe in your wave count when we hit 1.0176 and lower?
The fundamental also don't support further up for Aud.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,758
  • Aug 27, 2012 12:29pm Aug 27, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting ForexMGames
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem "solved!!"

The daily chart below shows the wave count.


On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel,...
So wave #1 to #3...ok... ....why it cannot be ABC or wxy to form an X wave @ 1.0614 , wave "W" was at 0.9577.

If and only If it is a "WXY" on Daily chart wave "Y" would take care of all the Bulls.... once below the APEX (1.0053) of the Triangle on daily, weekly chart.

It is good not to have a Bias and always have an alternate scenario.

You may use this as a reference.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #51,759
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:34pm Aug 27, 2012 2:34pm
Just reaching new low for audusd
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,760
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:53pm Aug 27, 2012 3:53pm
This pair has been moving up for a long time and its so normal for it to retrace a little ; and instead of bullish movements we all shud expect bearish trends. The price has respected the daily fan for a long time and now I expect the price to retrace down to the fan support level (market with red on the picture)...ın case the fan support is broken then i ll be seeking opportunities to SELL more...
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Imagination rules the world ...
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