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What are similarities between trading and gambling?

  • #121
  • Aug 26, 2012 7:56pm Aug 26, 2012 7:56pm
God Bless America

this will lead to mass tax loop being filled

Wonder what tax is on a 10 million dollar prize at the world champs... LOL
  • #122
  • Aug 26, 2012 9:28pm Aug 26, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting bonmaklad
God Bless America

this will lead to mass tax loop being filled

Wonder what tax is on a 10 million dollar prize at the world champs... LOL
Something like 1.5 mil. They take a serious amount out. I believe you have to pay double tax on it, as well. Lottery and income if you're a professional gambler. In a lot of states the tax is too much to even be a winning player.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #123
  • Aug 26, 2012 9:32pm Aug 26, 2012 9:32pm
oh really? I thought you guys had high tax rates. 15% is a sweet as tax rate!!

better then the new 50% of UK and 75% of France haha

poker is gambling still in NZ but if I had to pay for poker winnings on 10 mill it would be at 28% (I would run it through a company and pay shareholders salary) but that is still 2.8 mil lol

33% if no company... used to be 38%
  • #124
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:33am Aug 27, 2012 3:33am
Quoting KillerWhale
Even with roulette you can built an easy system that would beat the casino in the long run.
Bring it on — I'd love to see it. I'd quit forex in a heartbeat if casinos decided to offer a conquerable game (assuming that card counting in blackjack is still an offense punishable by lifetime banishment).

Roulette is beatable only if the wheel is in some way defective.
  • #125
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:25am Aug 27, 2012 4:25am
Quoting hanover
Bring it on — I'd love to see it. I'd quit forex in a heartbeat if casinos decided to offer a conquerable game (assuming that card counting in blackjack is still an offense punishable by lifetime banishment).

Roulette is beatable only if the wheel is in some way defective.
Based on the fact that out of 37 rounds, we will see 18 times black, 18 times red and 1 time zero in the long run.

Just start with 1 chip (@10?) and 1 more every time you lose, 1 less every time you win.
Suppose you lose 19 times, then you win 18 times, your total loss would be 1900 and total win 2070
Even if you lose 19 times and you win 15 times, you would still come out as a winner.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #126
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:32am Aug 27, 2012 4:32am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
  • #127
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:07am Aug 27, 2012 5:07am
Quoting KillerWhale
Based on the fact that out of 37 rounds, we will see 18 times black, 18 times red and 1 time zero in the long run.

Just start with 1 chip (@10?) and 1 more every time you lose, 1 less every time you win.
Suppose you lose 19 times, then you win 18 times, your total loss would be 1900 and total win 2070
Even if you lose 19 times and you win 15 times, you would still come out as a winner.
Killer,

What you're describing is a benign variant of martingale.

Your scenario of 19/15 is only one of all those that are equally possible. If you calculate the expectancy of ALL possible scenarios, over a given number of trials, you will win more often than you lose, but the occasions where your losses outnumber the wins by a significant amount, your overall loss will heavier, than in the opposite scenario (with the number of wins and losses reversed).

It can be demonstrated mathematically that all MM systems deliver a net expectancy of zero. The attached XLS allows you to experiment with different variables, over any number of trials up to a maximum of 6. Note that no matter which of the available gameplay and MM strategies that you use, the net expectancy is always zero.

Some time ago, I also wrote a MT4 script to test the Guetting progression, another kind of staking system. You can download the script, and see my results, namely that it likewise delivers zero expectancy (over any given number of trials) also, here.

I also created an XLS that tests yet another staking system, Oscar's Grind, over three different rule variations. All three results also deliver zero expectancy. You can download this here.

If it was as easy as you say to beat the casino at roulette, then why isn't everybody doing it?

David
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Martingale comparison.xls   126 KB | 314 downloads
  • #128
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:13am Aug 27, 2012 5:13am
Quoting hanover
Killer,

What you're describing is a benign variant of martingale.

Your scenario of 19/15 is only one of all those that are equally possible. If you calculate the expectancy of ALL possible scenarios, over a given number of trials, you will win more often than you lose, but the occasions where your losses outnumber the wins by a significant amount, your overall loss will heavier, than in the opposite scenario (with the number of wins and losses reversed).

It can be demonstrated mathematically that all MM systems deliver a net...
Interesting.
There is one big difference though between even chance on roulette with forex trading.................
The roulette ball has no memory, PA has! PA knows about support and resistance. PA also knows about economical consequences.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #129
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:16am Aug 27, 2012 5:16am
Quoting KillerWhale
Based on the fact that out of 37 rounds, we will see 18 times black, 18 times red and 1 time zero in the long run.

Just start with 1 chip (@10?) and 1 more every time you lose, 1 less every time you win.
Suppose you lose 19 times, then you win 18 times, your total loss would be 1900 and total win 2070
Even if you lose 19 times and you win 15 times, you would still come out as a winner.
What you describe is a money management system. Your maths are wrong and before you run to a casino, try a rough simulation in Excel and see what you'll get. You fail to understand ABC maths and probabilities theory. Not that good for a trader (or a gambler)
  • #130
  • Aug 27, 2012 6:42am Aug 27, 2012 6:42am
Quoting KillerWhale
Interesting.
There is one big difference though between even chance on roulette with forex trading.................
The roulette ball has no memory, PA has! PA knows about support and resistance. PA also knows about economical consequences.
Agreed!
  • #131
  • Aug 27, 2012 9:21pm Aug 27, 2012 9:21pm
Quoting hanover
Agreed!
standfast and cool ,,,,hanover,,,,,

cheers
  • #132
  • Aug 31, 2012 4:47am Aug 31, 2012 4:47am
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  • #133
  • Sep 2, 2012 1:25am Sep 2, 2012 1:25am
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  • #134
  • Sep 2, 2012 10:03am Sep 2, 2012 10:03am
Quoting hanover
It can be demonstrated mathematically that all MM systems deliver a net expectancy of zero.
Then an mm says when an edge delivers what -- before or after one loses all?

Anyway, thanks here, too.
  • #135
  • Edited 8:30pm Nov 8, 2015 8:10pm | Edited 8:30pm
What I learned from the tables this weekend....


Traders often OVER ANALYZE. I have a real problem with my trading approach when people (including myself) are making systematic gains gaming. FML

I mean, seriously, we were killing it at a reasonable pace on the tables and just gunning it with an approach. WAY LESS EFFORT and now in the Asia market???? I have done nothing and $hit is moving...

At least the games push you to act with the pace of the game. Easy to sideline in markets at times.
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  • #136
  • Nov 8, 2015 8:32pm Nov 8, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Bring it on I'd love to see it. I'd quit forex in a heartbeat if casinos decided to offer a conquerable game (assuming that card counting in blackjack is still an offense punishable by lifetime banishment). Roulette is beatable only if the wheel is in some way defective.
3 Card Poker - table game with a conservative approach - EASY.
  • #137
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:32am Nov 9, 2015 1:32am
Quoting R19
{quote} 3 Card Poker - table game with a conservative approach - EASY.
Hmm. Not so easy, according to this.

With the house edge against you, you're mathematically guaranteed to eventually lose, if you play enough hands.

Casinos don't offer games that can be easily beaten. To state the obvious, they're in business to make a profit.
  • #138
  • Nov 9, 2015 4:18am Nov 9, 2015 4:18am
Take profit - a great art, intelligently limit losses - wisdom. it is necessary to define for yourself what you want in the market - work and earn money, or play and lose. Casinos and slot machines may drive you into debts. On FOREX you play only as long as you have a deposit. Casinos will never give you away with a great win. FOREX doesn't care how much you earn.
  • #139
  • Edited 7:25am Nov 9, 2015 6:43am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Hmm. Not so easy, according to this. With the house edge against you, you're mathematically guaranteed to eventually lose, if you play enough hands. Casinos don't offer games that can be easily beaten. To state the obvious, they're in business to make a profit.

Take baccarat for example, we just played as a team, and under my friend's guidance.... we were consistently winning start to finish. I read a bunch on-line before as well talking about betting systems and edge and everything. lol, we didn't cookie cutter our way through.

- Observe table action trends/ streaks/ flow.
- Observe dealers. I usually experience a change of dealers after wins are flowing as UNLUCKY.
- Observe other players. Some high stakes players are very lucky/ good and some high stakes players are very unlucky/ bad. I'm watching those that are doing well and look like pro traders with a lot on the line and watching those that are table hopping and playing erratically with a lot on the line. It's priceless to watch someone with serious 5 or even 6 figures in chips play. What do they do? How do they act? Why are they so calm and calculated?
- Play out your strategy.
- No rush.
- Money Management.
- Have a bank roll and a stop point.
- Take profits and put them away for the day/ session for good (more or less).
- Track P&L over time. You can reach high marks quickly and then it's probably good enough to walk away.
- More losers -> more winners. I think it's better to go at the busiest times.


Last time I played 3 card poker I was in Vegas literally playing a conservative approach with most of my attention on the dancers at the Pleasure Pit at Planet Hollywood. I wasn't playing the higher risk leverage bets, just gaining over time. Like work...

I plan to really pick up my gaming activity. It is the closest you will get to a trading floor without being on the few left and you can learn a lot. You can't see all of that human activity behind a trading desk. I left at an insane hour and the tables/ house was FULL - almost peak capacity FULL.

You really just can't take game odds/ edge/ stats at face value. If you are doing all of the above can you have losing sessions? YES, but more likely you can hold your ground make some gains, and walk away.

Hustler Casino in LA- What can you learn from all these cats???:
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  • #140
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:54am Nov 9, 2015 6:54am
Is there any difference between speculation and gambling? The terms are often used interchangeable, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. Accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. Wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor blend, run into each other. This is true of speculation and gambling. The former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason.
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