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  • #3,161
  • Aug 24, 2012 10:41am Aug 24, 2012 10:41am
Kissa, good catch! I got it too. Anyone else?...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 163 KB
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3,162
  • Aug 24, 2012 12:04pm Aug 24, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting forexhard
Kissa, good catch! I got it too. Anyone else?...

Great job guys!

I missed that one...didnt hear my alert...
  • #3,163
  • Aug 24, 2012 1:14pm Aug 24, 2012 1:14pm
Got it! It was my first trade with your system. Thanks.

Quoting forexhard
Kissa, good catch! I got it too. Anyone else?...
  • #3,164
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:56pm Aug 25, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting casapips
Hi Larry,

Excellent post Larry as usual.
Could the buffer input address the spread issue?

Merci
No because that changes the stats, and you don't need it for the short BO

Larry
  • #3,165
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:07pm Aug 25, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting forexhard
Larry, good to see you back. How was your house warming?

RE the spread issue: The indi might not have an extra setting for the Spread or how to cope with a breakeven scenario, but the EA will. The EA will have a custom trailing stop feature that takes Spread into account as well as other features that help to enhance the capturing of pips where ever possible. It's called the -N- value, so look for it when the EA is released. (And Mer, if you're reading this, this -N- trailing stop feature is modeled on your trading style as...
Lets just say we have moved house, still have a dozen boxes to unpack, and the house warming is a good few weeks away.

My main concern is for our followers to take care about relying on those stats as if it is gospel, and thinking if they use the settings that give the best return they will make profits. I recommend that they look for potential profitable settings, then back test manually at least 6 months remembering the spread. This still has the unknowns of what the actual spread was, and that the future will NOT be the same.

We have a great system here, it will not make billionaires out of us, it might allow us to trade with a modicum of success compared to others if we trade it sensibly with good money management.

Enjoy your weekend all, and good trading next week

Larry

PS I got the Friday GU short, 35 pips.
  • #3,166
  • Edited 1:44pm Aug 25, 2012 1:33pm | Edited 1:44pm
I assume since the spread isn't accounted in the stats, we should subtract 2-3 pips per trade from the total? - Or whatever your average spread is per pair per trade.
  • #3,167
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:46am Aug 26, 2012 12:46am
Hi all

I am attaching a spreadsheet that you can use to calculate your trade lot sizes depending upon your chosen risk profile.

The spreadsheet is protected, so that you can only change the input parameters.

I hope it helps those of you who use martingaling with this system to improve you money management.

Larry
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Risk profile.xlsx   13 KB | 784 downloads
  • #3,168
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:47am Aug 26, 2012 12:47am
Hopefully someone is able and willing to answer my questions:

I am trying to understand the difference between 'trade set win ratio' and 'individual trades win ratio'. I am assuming the individual trades is a winning percentage for trades taken without martingaling and trade set is martingale.

Also, let's say that our stats are showing 200 CZs for the last 100 days. If I set my 'maxbreakouttradesperbox' to 1, I would assume that the stats should show only 200 trades due to my setting - only 1 allowed per box. However, it usually shows a lot more than that. It might show 180 individual trades won and 135 individual trades lost which would account for 315 trades and not 200. I hope someone can clear this up. Thank you very much.
  • #3,169
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:34am Aug 26, 2012 1:34am
Tropics, your questions would be easier to answer if you posted pics of your chart so that we could see what you are seeing in the statistical dashboard.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3,170
  • Aug 26, 2012 5:23am Aug 26, 2012 5:23am
Forexhard, I've attached a screenshot of my chart. 85 CZs found, max trades per CZ set to 1. Individual trades won: 83. Individual trades lost:36. Total of 119 trades. I thought that the total should be 85 trades since my setting is 'MaxBreakoutTradesPerBox': 1 and there were only 85 CZs found and not 119.

Quoting forexhard
Tropics, your questions would be easier to answer if you posted pics of your chart so that we could see what you are seeing in the statistical dashboard.
Attached Image
  • #3,171
  • Aug 26, 2012 10:30am Aug 26, 2012 10:30am
OK, I see what you mean. It seems to still be collecting data on trades beyond just the first. I've already asked Xux to take a look.

Thanks for your feedback, Tropics. Anyone else see anything wrong?...

(BTW, Tropics, the 28x21 CZ parameters are just place-setters, not the recommended defaults. 6+ CZ's per week is way over the recommended norm. What are you doing to narrow down your search parameters? You have worked your way through the thread and not just jumped to the end, right?)
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3,172
  • Aug 26, 2012 11:43am Aug 26, 2012 11:43am
Thanks for your response. And yes I have. I just loaded the default indicator on this chart to show the stats issue. Also, number of net pips is off as well.

One more thing, I am trying to figure out how the average number of pips works. I am looking at the previous CZs and can't quite figure it out. For example on the screenshot I posted earlier, there are 35buys=avg11pips and 48sells=avg12pips. How are these calculated? Thanks.





Quoting forexhard
OK, I see what you mean. It seems to still be collecting data on trades beyond just the first. I've already asked Xux to take a look.

Thanks for your feedback, Tropics. Anyone else see anything wrong?...

(BTW, Tropics, the 28x21 CZ parameters are just place-setters, not the recommended defaults. 6+ CZ's per week is way over the recommended norm. What are you doing to narrow down your search parameters? You have worked your way through the thread and not just jumped to the end, right?)
  • #3,173
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:00pm Aug 26, 2012 12:00pm
Hey guys, I am not a coder. If you have specific issues with the indi, then please direct your questions to Xux99. Please make sure you know what you are talking about first, so as to not waste his time answering noob questions: Do NOT ask for cosmetic mods to the indi, do NOT ask him to add extra filters or outside indicators to it, and do NOT ask him how to trade with it. But if you are sure you have spotted a bug of some type that causes the indi not to work properly as it now stands, then please feel free to send him a PM.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3,174
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:36pm Aug 26, 2012 3:36pm
Hi everyone !
I have read the whole topic, man what a journey
I need to thank you FH, like they said in Limitless : "I was blind, but now I see"
This topic, this strategy answers a lot of issues I have had with traiding and especially the technical approch ... I don't like all these charts full of indicators, price action is key. I like simple approches.
Last but not least, bravo Xux99 !
Love the indicator and curious to test te EA
That being said i still prefer drawing my little boxes by hand
Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #3,175
  • Aug 26, 2012 4:51pm Aug 26, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting tropics
Forexhard, I've attached a screenshot of my chart. 85 CZs found, max trades per CZ set to 1. Individual trades won: 83. Individual trades lost:36. Total of 119 trades. I thought that the total should be 85 trades since my setting is 'MaxBreakoutTradesPerBox': 1 and there were only 85 CZs found and not 119.

I have been able to get 90CZ's with your settings, with 40 buys and 45 sells - what happens is that 2 CZ's are created simultaneously,or one almost on top of the other but only one BO is registered. EG 25th of Jun and 16th of July.
I also don't think that the stat description of Individual trades Won = 85 is correct. I think you will find that that is in fact the number of trades that Broke Out. If it went to profit or not it Broke Out. It is thus (incorrectly I would have thought) being calculated as being a winner. The Individual Trade Loss = 44 is correct as it calculates the actual stop outs.
  • #3,176
  • Aug 26, 2012 5:44pm Aug 26, 2012 5:44pm
Yes you are right. 'Individual trades won' is actually the number of breakouts and not the number of wins. Individual trades lost seems to be correct. So the 'individual trades win ratio' is incorrect. The number of net pips seems to be correct though.

Quoting manfredg
I have been able to get 90CZ's with your settings, with 40 buys and 45 sells - what happens is that 2 CZ's are created simultaneously,or one almost on top of the other but only one BO is registered. EG 25th of Jun and 16th of July.
I also don't think that the stat description of Individual trades Won = 85 is correct. I think you will find that that is in fact the number of trades that Broke Out. If it went to profit or not it Broke Out. It is thus (incorrectly I would have thought) being calculated as being a winner. The Individual Trade Loss =...
  • #3,177
  • Aug 26, 2012 5:50pm Aug 26, 2012 5:50pm
I'm grateful that you guys are figuring out how to diagnose the bugs. The more hands we have working on this, the better. So what I want from you guys, is to take screen shots of any bugs you've located and send them to Xux99 with a detailed description of what you think the trouble is.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #3,178
  • Edited 6:23pm Aug 26, 2012 6:00pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting tropics
Yes you are right, stats are completely off. 'Individual trades won' is actually the number of breakouts and not the number of wins. Individual trades lost seems to be correct.
I don't think that the stas are off; just they need to be interpreted.
IMHO - I use:
The number of CZs; set as per the early posts on this thread (nothing changed there)
The number of days; set at a lower figure (I believe that you want info closer to current price action, not a long term average)
The Wins%; I like to be right more often than not (I'm competitive)
The Net Pips; I want to see my potential target (I'm competitive)
Some of the above may not relate to other people's trading style or risk profile, hence the beauty of this system.
Thanks again forexhard and all the other contributors.
  • #3,179
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:00pm Aug 26, 2012 6:00pm
I told Xux99 to take a look at the last several posts on this thread. He said that he will do so and fix any issues. Very kind of him!

Quoting forexhard
I'm grateful that you guys are figuring out how to diagnose the bugs. The more hands we have working on this, the better. So what I want from you guys, is to take screen shots of any bugs you've located and send them to Xux99 with a detailed description of what you think the trouble is.
  • #3,180
  • Edited 6:25pm Aug 26, 2012 6:04pm | Edited 6:25pm
I corrected my earlier post. The only thing that needs to be addressed is the 'individual trades won' since it is actually showing the number of total breakouts, instead of just wins. This directly influences the 'individual trades win ratio'. So this is the only issue. And you answered my other question - number of CZ's will not equal the total number of trades since as you said sometimes they are formed one after another and only one of them is used to enter a trade.

Quoting manfredg
I don't think that the stas are off; just they need to be interperated.
IMHO - I use:
The number of CZs; set as per the early posts on this thread (nothing changed there)
The number of days; set at a lower figure (I believe that you want info closer to current price action, not a long term average)
The Wins%; I like to be right more often than not (I'm competitive)
The Net Pips; I want to see my potential target (I'm competitive)
Some of the above may not relate to other people's trading style or risk profile, hence the beauty of this system....
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