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AUD/USD

  • #51,721
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:34pm Aug 25, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting stulic
And why's that?
Would safe a lot of taxpayers money if that country would be blown of the map
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,722
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:41pm Aug 25, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Would safe a lot of taxpayers money if that country would be blown of the map
lol good one
  • #51,723
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:43am Aug 26, 2012 1:43am
Quoting KillerWhale
Would safe a lot of taxpayers money if that country would be blown of the map
one could say the same for Israel or the US, if one wanted to be an gnorant prick.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,724
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:47am Aug 26, 2012 1:47am
Quoting stulic
one could say the same for Israel or the US, if one wanted to be an gnorant prick.
Be my guest
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,725
  • Aug 26, 2012 5:25am Aug 26, 2012 5:25am
Quoting XTrade
@ Stulic - Great post.

Not liking those lower fibs for the carry,

Let's see if aussie can rebound as you said earlier.

TOOK, the weekend roll! jeese, hope I am NOT 50 pips neg on Sunday!
I don't like those fibs either, but in case we drop below 1.03 I can't see this thing holding parity anymore and worse, but I'm confident this scenario would only play out in case of further deterioration of global sentiment which could include no QE3, China doing nothing and watching their export figures plummet, Grexit and/or shit hitting the fan big time in the Middle East before the US elections with Israel/US attacking Iran's facilities or Syrian conflict engulfing Lebanon and the region.

In this case my bias is if we clearly break below 1.03, we'll be heading towards 0.95 and possibly much much lower in mid to longer term.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,726
  • Aug 26, 2012 5:44am Aug 26, 2012 5:44am
Weekly is as bearish as can be and is pointing below 0.90 but tomorrow's open points slightly higher, I'd very much prefer 1.06 revisit and even break of 1.07 before parity challenge. Then of course if stars line up, we might see 80c next year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,727
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:24am Aug 26, 2012 6:24am
Price retested both the area of resistance at 1.0415-20 as well as the 200MA on the 4H on Friday. Signals are pointing down some more before we get a possible retrace. If price takes the 50% fib at 1.0390 then we drop to the 61% at 1.0340. Then we'll probably see a retrace to retest the 50% fib.

I think this pair is about to get a bit choppy. The long term trend is turning bearish but there's a lot of support it'll have to fight through to establish that trend.
  • #51,728
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:37am Aug 26, 2012 6:37am
Hello everyone hope you had a restful weekend,

I have just finished picking out several weekly option plays and digested too many charts for where we could be heading into September. I have also read weekend post by traders here and the other forum still going back and forth on where AUD/USD will go and even though I am short I realized one thing we ALL should (consider) agree on…
DON’T BE THAT GUY PUTTING HIS POSITION ON 5min before the Announcement……
What I mean by this is we have what will be the defining econ numbers that will drive direction for the most part of September coming out on Thursday/Friday/Saturday
Thursday-Day1 Jackson Hole
Friday-Day 2, Ben speaks, CNY Manufacturing PMI
Saturday- Draghi speaks, Day 3
Some here don’t trade news events because of the spikes, or some here don’t trade after news events until the market settles orders ,and some like to allocate a small portion of their account to ‘bet’ on red/black move’s for a potential payoff. What I am saying is for the intraday traders who scalp if you find yourself still flat AUD/USD and have mixed bias of its direction don’t feel the need to capture this move whichever way it should occur because either way after the dust has settled you still can get in and ride the new/reinforced trend that will take place afterward.

The brokers love announcements like this because this is when the trader who has still not picked various level ‘scenarios’ of where the market could trade knows what you’re thinking.
A) Announcement released market spikes and you execute a market getting filled near the top of the candle. A minute or two later the profit taking comes in and you’re at a loss as the candle come back down.
B) You scramble to get out and think ‘fake out’ and now go short
C) This works for a while then the next hourly bar comes in with new buying again putting you at a loss
D) As the market trends higher back to its spike high you are thinking this market will see profit taking come back and if not I will set my stop above the spike high.
E) It of course hits your stop and your so frustrated that you finally stop ‘fighting the trend’ and go long into the close.
F) This works until the last 45-30min when people are squaring their books and the market comes back down again giving you a crappy profit or at BE.
G) Now the market has closed or consolidated and your holding a position overnight that you really only wanted to scalp ‘once’
(example FOMC Minutes on Gold) I was talking w/ a friend of mine who went through this exact scenario.
Moral of the story don’t be that guy that needs to capture the spike because the move in the opposite direction to ‘mean’ levels is just around the corner.
Best of luck this wee everyone and for those who want to capture this move wheatear down or up you still have a solid 3 days of supports, resistance in play…
  • #51,729
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:41am Aug 26, 2012 6:41am
For the Macro guys ES is still extended and AUD going back to 2003 has been a great indicator in signaling moves lower before the stock market side picks it up. We have started to turn lower just like in MARCH/APRIL and ES was still sideways grinding higher before every Trend traders greatest month MAY’s selloff.

Here is support/Resistance on the downside for AUD/USD that look ready to be tested soon
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  • #51,730
  • Aug 26, 2012 9:44am Aug 26, 2012 9:44am
Quoting stulic
Weekly is as bearish as can be and is pointing below 0.90 but tomorrow's open points slightly higher, I'd very much prefer 1.06 revisit and even break of 1.07 before parity challenge. Then of course if stars line up, we might see 80c next year.
Why you worry about price next year?
I worry about price today and tomorrow, that's about it.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #51,731
  • Aug 26, 2012 11:39am Aug 26, 2012 11:39am
AUD/USD & NZD/USD
Holding bearish sentiment for both pairs.
On NZD/USD, I got my eye on .8015-.8025 region
  • #51,732
  • Aug 26, 2012 11:46am Aug 26, 2012 11:46am
I am already in the trade shorting AUD/JPY since last friday . . .
hope price will move lower this week
  • #51,733
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:01pm Aug 26, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Would safe a lot of taxpayers money if that country would be blown of the map
There are innocent people trying to live normal lives like you in iran its just the government that is bad.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #51,734
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:50pm Aug 26, 2012 12:50pm
NOON FOOD FOR THOUGHT: ‘The Smartest Guys in the Room…Press room that is’

Per reading a well followed tweeter (EA SELLER NOT A TRADER) I have to say the one thing that is true not only in trading but in life….We all sound bright and intelligent in our respected fields when speaking to someone new, but when you come up against your exact counterpoint and he ask you for HARD NUMBERS and not OPINIONS TO BACK CLAIMS people tend to stumble. Everyone can give an opinion and if it does not play out like the ‘prophet predicted’ they can say ‘hey it’s only an opinion take it or leave it’ or when they are right you will see ‘I told you see I have better foresight than most traders out there.
Here is one of the articles I read over the weekend on a system scalper /marketer who writes for a website blog where he gets the majority of his income not from trading but from freelance:
“””Gold has experienced through HIGH DEMAND a rally that WILL continue, Buy commodity currencies (AUD/USD) as the correlation ALWAYS is direct with GOLD.”””
This is the frustration i find most for new traders, investors and the retail side where they have to sift through bs before they find hard numbers to either back claims or disregard them.. I am not here to take down those who are knowingly fraudulent, untalented, or flat out misleading but I think if you’re going to make a ‘CASE’ on something you should take a few minutes to run through some numbers..
Whether the argument can be made if gold is in a new move based off of a couple technical breakouts or if this is the ultimate suck in to dump on Jackson hole is not the argument. The moment you say things that are no longer ‘personal opinion’ but contain maths, and factual statements you need to state sources or hard numbers. If you are proven wrong don’t hide behind the cloak of ‘these are my personal opinions and should not be taken as investment or trade advice, but when you are Right say things like ‘ You guys should of taken this call I made x’ days ago because I know what I am talking about (sub)’
Here are the facts with Gold/AUD correlation (cont.)
  • #51,735
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:16pm Aug 26, 2012 1:16pm
Below is a 10yr chart of AUD/USD and GC together.. Anyone who inputs on excel or other software daily, weekly, monthly OHCL ‘s for correlation coefficients for two instruments Knows what to look for when a market is HIGHLY correlated directly, Highly correlated Inversely, or reading is not sufficient enough to determine (sideways markets). For Arguments sake and cleanliness I went down to a 3year chart on GOLD AUD/USD and found 6 highly inverse movements where the two markets moved opposite from each other as seen below.
A correlation of +1 means that there is a perfect positive linear relationship between variables and as you move lower to -1 its highly inverse. I programmed the reading I did for the last 3years into the software and you can see times of highly direct and highly invers. This can be manipulated even more when going into smaller time frames like 90D,30D ect but I wanted to point this out to those who have either read articles or believe that if Gold continues up AUD/USD will be sure to follow…This is not always the case and those who state blindly AUD FOLLOWS GOLD are either making a case with no substance or who are simply too lazy to run numbers.
I do have an excel spreadsheet of Data on AUD, GOLD, EUR, Dollar futures OHLC’s going back to 2003 and their correlation coefficient readings and I would obviously attach them but the file size is too much…I not going to state something w/o (not a h hypocrite) numbers so if you want them PM me
I can say though right now and starting 8/17 1.00 direct correlations has broken down and vol between these to have picked up…As it stands on Friday’s close Correlation between AUD/USD and Gold is .0194

HighlyDirect1, 0.75, 0.25, 0.0194, 0, -0.25, -0.50, -0.75, -1.00

(ps. I have called out the tweeter on Friday and even placed a wager with him on this matter and I have yet to hear back. If you hear FACTUAL statements where people are expressing OPINIONS to further a case tell them to put up or shut up..)
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  • #51,736
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:17pm Aug 26, 2012 1:17pm
Examples of inverse to name a few.
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  • #51,737
  • Aug 26, 2012 2:54pm Aug 26, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Why you worry about price next year?
I worry about price today and tomorrow, that's about it.
Because I'm not interested in scalping only.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,738
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:45pm Aug 26, 2012 3:45pm
Just some 2 cents here.

If there's some bullish bond buying/added liquidity sentiment out of Jackson Hole then one would assume we'd be headed back up towards 1.05-1.07 in the short term. If not, perhaps a slight bounce (data depending)for the week and then back downward until we hit the big September announcements.

With a QE announcement and/or an ECB bond yield cap etc. (unlikely in both cases before later in the year, if at all it would seem) a bounce certainly, perhaps a retest of this year's highs.

With no big (read: huge) supportive announcements or large developments from the Euro or China, I agree with the previous poster that given the fundamentals it's down to parity and beyond.

Great trade this year on the Aussie with the trend and the nice little carry bonus. I rode the recent strength just about all the way up and really like what I think is a clear read on Aussie's fundamental picture. Looking forward to the Fed/ECB's chatter as usual for some definitive direction either way medium term.
  • #51,739
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:47pm Aug 26, 2012 3:47pm
THE CASE FOR THE BEARS and WHY bulls need to Pray… (Disclaimer: If ben comes out the short call mute)
I noticed the other thread on AUD is a heavily Long biased AUD/USD a few members in particular (names will not be mentioned in case of embarrassment ). I saw what were general cases (opinions) of why AUD/USD should go higher or why we are in a bull market still and I wanted the bears that have been building shorts for the last two weeks to chime in here.
I will stay away from opinions as much as possible on this view and state FACTs. But first:
OPINION….. Support for a rounding top (started 7/27 was breached but held last Friday’s close. I think it will be a matter of time before we break.
Opinion……..The only help that will save AUD longs is the next upper support (shown below) area formed 7/12 and 7/16. Again this will break.
Opinion…Pray to whoever your god is if you’re heavily long and ask For Ben to come out with QE, because if no stimulus (not likely) comes in later this week GAME OVER. And you have no support until 1.03 where it won’t hold either.
Opinion: Based off reliable ABC extension fib reversal level we have topped (temp) on S&P and AUD/USD so September will be down.
Phewww..Now that is off my back I will state facts about AUD/USD moving forward.
FACT: Every AUD cross (except AUD/CAD AUD/ZAR) is trading lower than the Open from last Sunday
FACT: EVERY AUD cross (Except ZAR) has traded lower and broken multiple supports since AUD/USD’s top on 8/9
FACT: We have broken and traded below THE MAJOR uptrend support since the bottom (6/1) both on the lowest low standpoint and close.
FACT: AUD/USD has set in LH’s LL’s since it’s top.
FACT: those stating AUD/USD will be a long because gold has more upside (opinion) and that both are ALWAYS CORRELATED your argument does not hold. Fact correlation coefficient reading as it stands from Friday’s close is 0.0194 for those who don’t know what that means refer here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5959584#post5959584)
I won’t even touch fundamentals because that can be skewed any which way from fact to what it means (opinion)

CHARTS BELOW…..

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  • #51,740
  • Aug 26, 2012 4:06pm Aug 26, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting jplazard2
Opinion…Pray to whoever your god is if you’re heavily long and ask For Ben to come out with QE, because if no stimulus (not likely) comes in later this week GAME OVER. And you have no support until 1.03 where it won’t hold either.
In terms of reliance on the Fed I think this is spot on, (not that we're really going out on a limb there) but it's tough to hazard a call on the wider trend outside of the near term just yet.

Even with some solid short term downside from disappointment this Friday, there's still plenty due out of the ECB (couple of recent reports indicating the ECB will wait out early September before going for anything significant) and the Fed through September- even beyond.

It's possible that if the Fed has got a QE announcement up it's sleeve (something again which I think is rather unlikely), it'll wait for the US election results in November to make a definitive call and announcement.

Sort of a side note but worth keeping in mind also is the German Courts' decision on the ESM next month. Should be approved without a hitch but if by chance they rule against it, one would assume the hammer on prices will come down quickly.

In any case, without the support of Ben or Mario there's little fundamentally to keep Aussie near it's current level.
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