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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #116,281
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:09pm Aug 25, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting tinkerbelle
I
Unless you trade 2 trillion USD daily, I'm waiting for a better answer
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #116,282
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:03pm Aug 25, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting HanSolo
Hey PB and all other traders in here: Wanna play another round of WIPG (Where Is Price Going)? Look at the massive DBHLC in the attached chart. What do you think where price is going? Mark your targets and tell us why you chose them. Good luck!

Here you go HS.
It is a big bar but, I wonder what TF that is.
We all know how big bars sometimes act on M5. LOL
I will go with scenari A but I open to B as a possibility.
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  • #116,283
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:06pm Aug 25, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I have a silly question guys. In trading, for every seller there is a buyer. Who buys during a massive downtrend?
The losers.
Till it hits the bottom.
  • #116,284
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:40pm Aug 25, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I have a silly question guys. In trading, for every seller there is a buyer. Who buys during a massive downtrend?
I would say the answer is nobody. And that's why price keeps falling til it reaches a level where it becomes again attractive to buy. But do bear in mind that not all transactions are made by speculators. Even if, say, the Euro is falling dramatically, there are still market participants interested in buying Euros, not for speculative purposes like ourselves, but for business purposes, tourism, etc.
  • #116,285
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:54pm Aug 25, 2012 8:54pm
Jaroo has just got to have his eye on this one.
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  • #116,286
  • Aug 25, 2012 9:30pm Aug 25, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting Pinbar
The losers.
Till it hits the bottom.
I don't think so. I wanted to know exactly what kind of institutions are buying into the drop and for what purposes.

Quoting WHenderson
I would say the answer is nobody
So when you enter short, you sell to nobody, right? That's what you're saying?
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #116,287
  • Aug 25, 2012 11:54pm Aug 25, 2012 11:54pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull

So when you enter short, you sell to nobody, right? That's what you're saying?
Well, I didn't mean literally nobody. Of course there must be someone to sell to when you go short. What I meant was, the lack of buying interest is what keeps prices moving down in such scenarios. In other words, the massive downtrend you are talking about may not be the result of a huge sell off as much as it is due to minimal buying action.
  • #116,288
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:58am Aug 26, 2012 12:58am
Quoting Pinbar
Here you go HS.
It is a big bar but, I wonder what TF that is.
We all know how big bars sometimes act on M5. LOL
I will go with scenari A but I open to B as a possibility.
Great you're joining us, PB. It's a daily TF.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,289
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:17am Aug 26, 2012 1:17am
Quoting HanSolo
Here we go guys. This is our final target (see attached chart). Price will eventually reach those prominent bar lows.

Now we'll go through it bar by bar. As this is a daily chart I'll also provide you with the 8h for those who want to fine tune there stops accordingly (sorry, the 4h feed does not reach back far enough). You tell us where you would put your stop loss. As many beginner's struggle with their trailing strategy I suggest that instead of playing it safe (very tight SL, taking profit prematurely) you try to ride this thing down until...
You gotta give us the vertical axis of prices. Round numbers are important...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #116,290
  • Edited 3:47am Aug 26, 2012 1:26am | Edited 3:47am
DAY 1

Now we'll go through it bar by bar. As this is a daily chart I'll also provide you with the 8h for those who want to fine tune there stops accordingly (sorry, the 4h feed does not reach back far enough). You tell us where you would put your stop loss. As many beginner's struggle with their trailing strategy I suggest that instead of playing it safe (very tight SL, taking profit prematurely) you try to ride this thing down as far as you can, just for practice purposes. The cowboy who stays in the saddle the longest gets a big hand.

I think this exercise may help you with the transition from a fixed set of rules trailing strategy to a trailing strategy based on what the chart tells you (though both are valid approaches of course). And it will strengthen you chart reading abilities.

This is our first chart. 24 hours have passed. and price went up a little. Please attach a chart and provide us with your initial stop loss and, in case of trailing, where you would have moved it after the formation of this first bar(s). Also tell us WHY you put your stop where you did. I also recommend you to answer right after you read this post as you might otherwise be influenced by the other member's views.

Good luck!
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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,291
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:26am Aug 26, 2012 1:26am
Quoting ghous
You gotta give us the vertical axis of prices. Round numbers are important...

g.
You're right. I'll fix the charts...
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,292
  • Edited 1:50am Aug 26, 2012 1:40am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting HanSolo
This is our first chart. 24 hours have passed. and price went up a little.

Please attach a chart and provide us with your initial stop loss and, in case of trailing, where you would have moved it after the formation of this first bar(s). Also tell us WHY you put your stop where you did.

Good luck!
My initial stop would begin right at the top of the DBHLC. Price has pulled back to the bar lows adjacent to the DBHLC and I would be keen on seeing them hold as resistance. The plan from here on would be to expect the next day to go down in which case my stop would get pulled down to above this minor flip. That should reduce my risk by more then half...pretty satisfactory.

If price continues up and ends up closing above this flip I'll kill the trade.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #116,293
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:44am Aug 26, 2012 1:44am
I just thought it doesn't make sense to give you the final target as one could just leave the stop very high above until price gets there. So I deleted the post where I presented the target and hope that not so many of you saw it.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,294
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:50am Aug 26, 2012 1:50am
Quoting HanSolo
I just thought it doesn't make sense to give you the final target as one could just leave the stop very high above until price gets there. So I deleted the post where I presented the target and hope that not so many of you saw it.
Yes good idea. The final target was bound to interfere with the trade management decision making. Imagine how cool would it be to know a final target for a trade setup in real time.

Its a Sunday...you got lucky.

lol

g.
I believe . . .
  • #116,295
  • Edited 2:32am Aug 26, 2012 2:01am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting ghous
Its a Sunday...you got lucky.
LOL, yes, I hope so too.

BTW, it's great you join us. It will be an important learning experience for us new and intermediate traders to participate in the thinking process of a pro. Hopefully some others will chime in, too...
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,296
  • Aug 26, 2012 2:44am Aug 26, 2012 2:44am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I have a silly question guys. In trading, for every seller there is a buyer. Who buys during a massive downtrend?
Well, this could be a very long topic, but ...
First - you know 95% of the traders are losers, so ... here is one source to start with. A lot of pals who try to catch a bottom. A lot of systems that give signals at random places ... you name it.

Second - FOREX is a huge market. I mean HUGE. And it's not just a speculators market, not even close. So even if we assume that all traders are very smart and they all sell in a downtrend, you can be sure that there still will be a ton of buying orders for different purposes. If your business need parts made in Japan, you should buy Yen to get it, right ?!

So this is long story short.

If you have interest to go a little deeper, I recommend you to read this topic started by Darkstar :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484
  • #116,297
  • Edited 3:54am Aug 26, 2012 3:35am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting samuelngugi
halo chanya, meshka and all you great traders in this forum,

have a question on HCR n LCS level. how far should i look back i.e on the left in order to put them. i tried to pick several of the tops and bottoms ie HCR n LCS on monthly, weekly and daily and i got so many lines on my chart that finding a space to trade into is difficult. i have chanya's pdf on jaroo's method and cant find how far should this levels come from.
Hey Samuel, I think it depends on your trading style. When your perspective is that of support and resistance even the highs/lows in the distant path, i.e. years on a weekly or monthly TF, may be of importance. What helped me the most was to look only for the most prominent highs and lows of the recent past (150-300 candles) on the upper TFs (monthly, weekly and daily) and only near current price. Watch how price reacts at these lines. Also use differnet colors for different TFs. Don't clutter your chart with lines that are not relevant to your current situation.

Nowadays, I personally look at it more from the supply and demand perspective. So the most important thing for me is what happens horizontally to the left: how did price behave when it was here the last time and the time before that. Which approach you take depends on your personality and trading style, I guess.

Just post some of your charts and lines and we will help you with it.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,298
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:57am Aug 26, 2012 3:57am
Quoting HanSolo
Hey Samuel, I think it depends on your trading style. When your perspective is that of support and resistance even the highs/lows in the distant path, i.e. years on a weekly or monthly TF, may be of importance. What helped me the most was to look only for the most prominent highs and lows of the recent past (150-300 candles) on the upper TFs (monthly, weekly and daily) and only near current price. Watch how price reacts at these lines. Also use differnet colors for different TFs. Don't clutter your chart with lines that are not relevant to your...
P.S.: I think Jarroo mainly focuses on recent HCRs/LCSs. Everytime price cuts through it the past becomes less important I think. Maybe he will clear this up for us.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #116,299
  • Aug 26, 2012 4:24am Aug 26, 2012 4:24am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I have a silly question guys. In trading, for every seller there is a buyer. Who buys during a massive downtrend?
Anybody who believes price will go higher in uspecified period of time becouse of various reasons but if there are no buyers at current levels price is just gaping down to find demand (eg. most of the pre/post news spikes is just result of low liquidity trading in the market). One can not simply say that buying during a massive downtrend is a loser game. Buy orders come from players trading across multiple timeframes with various expectations and risk management.
  • #116,300
  • Aug 26, 2012 6:01am Aug 26, 2012 6:01am
Quoting samuelngugi
halo chanya, meshka and all you great traders in this forum,

have a question on HCR n LCS level. how far should i look back i.e on the left in order to put them. i tried to pick several of the tops and bottoms ie HCR n LCS on monthly, weekly and daily and i got so many lines on my chart that finding a space to trade into is difficult. i have chanya's pdf on jaroo's method and cant find how far should this levels come from.

is there a rule as to when a level should be taken off from the chart. for example if its broken 2 or 3 times. some just...
You should ask the source (Jarroo) about it for bona fide answers i am not expert with all this LCS/HCR stuff but when I use it for entries I look for most recent ones.. I trade mainly only into the space with this method so for targets I use high of PBT candle as first trouble, and if price overcomes it I am looking to first most obvious LCS/HCR in the past... which may be as old as big is the open space behind our action candles. I dont have a rule like how many times price is broken through it...
all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
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