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The Really Useless Thread

  • #108,501
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:00pm Aug 24, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting kenfen69


Textbook!

Look at the head on that!
  • #108,502
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:10pm Aug 24, 2012 2:10pm
slippery bastards keep moving :/
i have taken 25% of the positions off..

TG 1 moved up to 5769 and TG 2 moved to 5737 TG 3 still unknown but it will be aprox around 5685 ish depending on the PA

Stops moved to just above 5864.5


Quoting hkkhanus
morning all,
hope everyone is doing well

I am selling some here near 59xx area for 57xx target
woke up and put in the first order without even thinking twice, was looking for this price for a while but the fooker wouldn't just pump up!!!
btw my first tg is 575x.xx and second 570x.xx third target is i have no idea about that yet .. so just going to play along

hk
  • #108,503
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:27pm Aug 24, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
got the 40 in e/u that I wanted.

@Sisse: The yield-band rumor was making the round right after their last meeting. Idk, but without money-printing, how could they hold the whole market at bay?
Yes it was ...the only thing it changed was the "seniority" were the rumor/comment came from.

Well on the second part, that's a good point. I need to read in details on how can actually a CB [the technicalities] set a band in the yields. I don't remember ever studying/reading or even have a real case on how to do that so I confess I don't really know how it will work without putting €€€ were their mouth (band) is.

Sure pure expectations will work to some extend (like a band in currencies [e.g SNB and the E/C]) just knowing that the CBs will be there is enough to scare most if not all the sane investors/speculator betting against but if things go wrong (grexit, Spanish banks collapsing etc, etc) the ECB will have to print and print hard to keep its word and band so ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #108,504
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:31pm Aug 24, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting sisse
Yes it was ...the only thing it changed was the "seniority" were the rumor/comment came from.

Well on the second part, that's a good point. I need to read in details on how can actually a CB [the technicalities] set a band in the yields. I don't remember ever studying/reading or even have a real case on how to do that so I confess I don't really know how it will work without putting €€€ were their mouth (band) is.

Sure pure expectations will work to some extend (like a band in currencies [e.g SNB and the E/C]) just knowing that the CBs...
Do you have any numbers in mind, in case any country leaves/collapses...
There was a commentary in a newspaper around here about a week ago that stated (stated, not proposed or assumed) that the ECB should finally act like a real CB and start printing. Printing is around a lot lately, and I know they have to change a lot of their way of working in order to do that. It is even possible, though more a guess from my side atm, that the people will have to vote for the allowance to print. Those people, who are allowed to raise their voice, anyway.
  • #108,505
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:42pm Aug 24, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
thanks man.. if you had a vagina i would kiss ya
Understood.

Ah well...one can dream.

Glad you got the black stuff flowing again.
  • #108,506
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:47pm Aug 24, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
Do you have any numbers in mind, in case any country leaves/collapses...
There was a commentary in a newspaper around here about a week ago that stated (stated, not proposed or assumed) that the ECB should finally act like a real CB and start printing. Printing is around a lot lately, and I know they have to change a lot of their way of working in order to do that. It is even possible, though more a guess from my side atm, that the people will have to vote for the allowance to print. Those people, who are allowed to raise their voice, anyway.
No numbers.

First is way too complex and technical. Monetary policy is very complex to evaluate for an outsider. You need to dig deep in a lot macro and micro numbers (M1, M2, Ms in general) and there is balance sheets, with market operations, speed of circulation, inflation, etc, etc ...it is not straight forward approach as let see evaluating the P/E of a company so what is important is not necessarily the exact number what is important is knowing the ECB can act as proper CB.

The system is unsustainable (in this part of the equation) because the ECB is asking to do and is doing everything a CB has to do but with 1/4 of the tools...is irrational what is going on in the ECB.

Finally on the impact, look printing money (modern Quantitative easing) is not like they are going to print some notes and given to the average JOE in the EZ ...people will not even notice as QE imply (again) complex technicalities in which 99% of the population will not even now it exist (example look at the UK it has print money like mad the last 2 years ...do you think any British in the street know or vote for what is going on in the BOE?)

I think is mistake in the EZ or anywhere making a referendum on such a technical issues is like asking to vote on how we should operate the second engine room on a satellite in the Space on the European Space Agency ...

Don't get me wrong, the vote and the political participation should be on do we want to be part of the Euro Zone or the EU or not but not in the technicalities on how to run a CBs....and thats the only part the German politicians are 100% wrong...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #108,507
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:56pm Aug 24, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting sisse
I need to read in details on how can actually a CB [the technicalities] set a band in the yields. I don't remember ever studying/reading or even have a real case on how to do that so I confess I don't really know how it will work without putting €€€ were their mouth (band) is.
The only thing that ever keeps deep pockets from shorting every bid and running a price into the ground is that when you get there, you have to find somebody you can buy all it back from at that price.

Every time, at least in US commodities markets, that doesn't happen: they see you coming, and there's no offer side to the market.

Here, if you have a CB who you know will clear your book when the prices gets low enough, deep pockets can just use the repo markets to stuff it all down their throat. Guys who only think one move ahead in a board game usually end up losing.
  • #108,508
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:04pm Aug 24, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
No numbers.

First is way too complex and technical. Monetary policy is very complex to evaluate for an outsider. You need to dig deep in a lot macro and micro numbers (M1, M2, Ms in general) and there is balance sheets, with market operations, speed of circulation, inflation, etc, etc ...it is not straight forward approach as let see evaluating the P/E of a company so what is important is not necessarily the exact number what is important is knowing the ECB can act as proper CB.

The system is unsustainable (in this part of the equation) because...
Ok, thanks.
I agree on the complexity and that it should not be clarified in a vote, how the ECB works. I think, the vote will be necessary, because it changes the whole face of the EU as it has been written down in the contracts. I might be false there. It has something to do with their mandate... and if that changes...
  • #108,509
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:26pm Aug 24, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting OldQuant

Here, if you have a CB who you know will clear your book when the prices gets low enough....
I agree with everything you said but that works in most of the markets I know but as we were talking with Hatch before: I don't know how the technicalities of setting and defending a band will work in the EZ bond market ...

I never heard that before so I don't really understand how can investors/speculators can even have access to prices outside of the bands or even worse pressure the floor/cap if there is full ECB monopoly of the range....

Quoting Mr Hatch
Ok, thanks.
I agree on the complexity and that it should not be clarified in a vote, how the ECB works. I think, the vote will be necessary, because it changes the whole face of the EU as it has been written down in the contracts. I might be false there. It has something to do with their mandate... and if that changes...
Thin line there. They should change the mandate for certainty and transparency sake but there are at least a dozen or more ways (technicalities) to avoid the political cost of changing the mandate and doing the same.... moral or democratic? ...not really ... technical and potentially the only way to save the euro short term? definitively ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #108,510
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:32pm Aug 24, 2012 3:32pm
junkiesssssssssssssss

have a great weekend see u around
  • #108,511
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:44pm Aug 24, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting kill56
junkiesssssssssssssss

have a great weekend see u around
Still going east?
  • #108,512
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:55pm Aug 24, 2012 3:55pm
E/U short, machine established at 2533 at 13:34USET on rollover, covered manually at 2513 on manual limit, flat for the weekend. Strange end of NY day.

Pleasant weekend to all. 25125/130 NY last paint for me.
  • #108,513
  • Aug 24, 2012 3:59pm Aug 24, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting Jaro
Still going east?
yop still have some leftovers with tight lets see
  • #108,514
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:21am Aug 25, 2012 12:21am
i guess im the only looser alone on a friday
  • #108,515
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:31am Aug 25, 2012 1:31am
Quoting fxjawn
i guess im the only looser alone on a friday
I was present amongst what could be considered people, but my mind and thoughts belong to the stars.
  • #108,516
  • Edited 6:36am Aug 25, 2012 6:25am | Edited 6:36am
I like this chart, the question is, who's gonna fall faster, EUR or AUD?
For now I'm short @1.2050 with more shorts pending up to 1.21.
Let's see how far this goes, with added pleasure of receiving SWAP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea 1 hr 8-25-12.gif Size: 18 KB
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #108,517
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:04am Aug 25, 2012 7:04am
Quoting kenfen69
Understood.

Ah well...one can dream.

Glad you got the black stuff flowing again.
Inserted Video

some have extra
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,518
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:07am Aug 25, 2012 7:07am
Quoting fxjawn
i guess im the only looser alone on a friday
cheer up man. there is always next week. build up your funds early in the week and lose them Friday. a trend is a trend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,519
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:18am Aug 25, 2012 7:18am
Quoting gatorinla
cheer up man. there is always next week. build up your funds early in the week and lose them Friday. a trend is a trend.
Gator, what's your view on EA?
Much appreciated!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #108,520
  • Aug 25, 2012 8:13am Aug 25, 2012 8:13am
Quoting gatorinla
4h bullish piercing pattern.. and the last h was green.. its Friday..
got scared out my shorts Friday.. gartly indicates 2384, but it can go to 2607 in the gartly still. i have 2609.9.. using past moves 2330 for a possible pullback..there is also a tl there. with the mid of the previous leg at 2326.. then maybe 2609.. 2473 ish is a support area not to be overlooked. i give second indications less respect, but i do see 2699 on a adam eve,, and a ihs with 2645 on the day. a few ,more higher. i cant control what it does. only what i do.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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