AUD/USD

1st tp done

Hello all yesterdays channel failed breakout proved strong resistance and we have made a nice move lower. We have now in place HH's LL's since the peak made 8/9 and just about all (but 1) AUD cross has broken support.

I am still in the Short AUD trade and added on yesterdays failed breakout and still Long dollar which looks like we have bottomed here(temporarily) and Now after almost 2 weeks of putting these positions on at least for AUD it looks to be playing out on a bigger move into September.

Below is a chart of WTD (week to date) of AUD/USD and the major AUD crosses. we have broken through support on all of them except ZAR so those thinking we are prone to see 1.06 next week or higher you might want to reconsider looking at the charts this weekend. On a comparison note for AUD we peaked on 8/2 on just about most of the crosses now we have broken lower.

Below is the comparison list AUD/USD is the candle chart the others are line charts.

AUD/CAD AUD/CHF AUD/CZK AUD/DKK AUD/JPY AUD/NOK AUD/NZD AUD/PLN AUD/SEK AUD/SGD AUD/THB AUD/USD AUD/ZAR

MIDNIGHT FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Futures market predicts SPOT market's next move before it happens................

I wanted to mention to those still learning to trade AUD/USD how beneficial it is to obtain a futures account whether funded or unfunded so that your able to see the volume on futures side which if your trading spot AUD/USD will help you with EARLIER & BETTER entry and picking intraday tops /bottoms/moment moves before they happen.


I know most all of you know that the futures market follows spot market to the T but there are certain times especially around ‘ROUND CENT’ levels when futures tips their hand first on bigger movements so that you may take the trade in AUD/USD minutes before with a high success rate.




Let me show you what I am talking about
Futures (/6A) 8/23/12 2:32am O: 1.0401 H: 1.0401 L: 1.0399 C: 1.0399 V: 56 (first time today closed below 1.04)


Spot AUD/USD 8/23/12 2:32am O: 1.0422 H: 1.0422 L: 1.04198 C: 1.04201


Had you gone short AUD/USD the very next minute bar open you might have had small slippage but most likely you would have been filled between 1.04204-1.04156 areas.


While you were getting filled Australian futures was being hammered by new shorts and SL triggers occurring all below 1.04. At no point after 2:32am did the futures trade above 1.04, so you could have had even more confidence on the spot short AUD/USD was going to fall below 1.04 in a few minutes or within the hour in a wave of selling leaking over to SPOT.


Here was the trade while people were asking is AUD/USD going to break below 1.04 while it was trading at 1.0422 ??? (Answer is yes absolutely yes because futures market just told you it is going below)

Short AUD/USD around 1.0420-1.0415 with a tight stop loss and watching futures the whole time as new shorts came in with volume hammering /6A below 1.04. We bottomed out so far at 1.0377 (aud/usd) and you would of picked up a quick scalp or a position play for NY open with very little risk or uncertainty. Had Futures traded above 1.04 again and stayed above for several minutes you would of taken this as an indication to move your SL to BE or BE+123455ect...

Very interesting. Thank you for the information jplazard!

Was hoping for a retrace before the weekend, looks like its not gonna happen until next week

Have a great weekend all

I am off to the screens to pick levels for more shorts for Sunday's gap if you want to talk over the weekend or today about dollar ect my skype is on my profile.

Cheers,

Jplazard

Hello all,

Who is shorting AUD/USD?

I short @1.0385, good move?

Great food for thought. When I read posts like these, it gives me a target for my weekend homework! I still don't know how to read the futures orders though. I will have to look for a book about futures. Also, were can I find a futures demo account with reliable live feed?

Thanks again for all you awesomeness.

Depends on your risk tolerance and your timeframe. If you're looking for a quick scalp, this is your worst nightmare.

bearish divergence macd 30 min chart

There is not enough volatility for any significant moves to happen. It's the end of the week.

Could be an interesting last week of August, nice parallel channel respected and if 1.0375 holds given continued QE3 speculation, 1.0520 and then LTTL above 1.0660 could be very well envisaged during the first week of September.
Don't expect higher then 1.07 tho even in case of QE3 announcement, 1.0680 should cap it for the time being.

If 1.0375 gives in on Monday, fibs around 1.0300, 1.0230 and 1.0170 should be the targets but I prefer the first option.

@ Stulic - Great post.

Not liking those lower fibs for the carry,

Let's see if aussie can rebound as you said earlier.

TOOK, the weekend roll! jeese, hope I am NOT 50 pips neg on Sunday!

http://i49.tinypic.com/21dfwo6.jpg

Slightly frustrating week for me on the AUDUSD. It has not been trending and is moving in a yo-yo manner. Up down up down. The yo-yo movement is clearly evident on the 1 hour chart. It is hard to trade when prices move like roller coasters, up one moment, down the other moment.

On the daily chart, i do see a wave 4 on the Elliott Wave Count. According to Elliott Wave theory, wave 4's are especially prone to exhibit choppy behaviours. This might explain why we are seeing the yo-yo pattern on the 1 hour chart.

Some technical traders love Elliott Wave. Others dismiss it as mumbo-jumbo hocus pocus. To each their own. Elliott Wave requires constant adjusting of the wave count. Therefore i only use Elliott Wave on my daily and weekly charts. And i will only use it when necessary and when i see a clear wave count. I will post a daily chart to show the Elliott Wave Count soon.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2mn2ety.png

Bad news came this morning from venezuela. What impact on AUD and CAD? http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...uay-plant.html

I would like to see that happen in Iran, but then much bigger

Is that good or bad for AUD?

I'm planning to go short on Aud/Usd.

Finally last Friday the ascending trend line broke into little pieces.
And what's even more important, support @ 1.0412 could be history now. We had 4 hr close below, the support was tested from below and rejected.
Since it was a strong support, now it is a strong resistance.

Fundamentally it is in line with technicals, with China's growth slowing down at record pace, commodities could tank.

Next stop for Aud/Usd is probably 1.0176.
But once we get it moving, it could easily go way below that.

Here is the 4 hr chart:

And the daily chart:

And why's that?