Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

Excellent doblece, I've been a COT fan for years. (when everybody wants to buy - sell it to them) The commercials are the BIG BOYS and the large spec are always 100% wrong at all major market turns.

So based on that COT report, it suggests we should be ready to sell (with the big boys)? Am I understanding this correctly? What would be the trigger?

euraud is like a train, full throttle

Use your own sell signals. They should work as good as anyone elses.

NOTE : The COT is not a timing indicator. When it reaches extreme readings - it means it is time to pay close attention and prepare. It usually gives you plenty of time to prepare so don't just jump in.

Weekly lows are key. Last weeks low 10410 and this weeks current low 10412. When it breaks below, it would be my trigger. But please use your own system.

Are you on the train?

no, but somebody should stop that train, it's giving me a big headache

I only use COT charts as a map to gauge at which point of the road we might be and then look at the charts for signs of market exhaustion.

As said in my last post, after seeing the index chart I would say it might take some more time (or not) as large specs are not completely at an extreme position (but coming nearer).

There is not a fixed place for all the objects on the map, as it will only unfold a small portion at a time (for example last week I was eyeing 1.0480/460 as clue level, now it's 1.0400 then 1.0340).

It will also depend on what time frame you are trading on.
From a broader point of view, the Aussie is in a new higher range (0.94xx-1.10xx) which center line is about 1.0200 so as a contrarian I'll look to be short above and long below ... but watching price action in lower timeframes.

That is, no specific triggers for me but dynamic price levels and market behaviour at those.

maybe Merkel would be happy to stop the speeding train..

NEIN! NEIN! NEIN! would do the trick

Dallas Fed Text: China Slowdown May Be Worse Than Rported -2 Dallas Fed Text: China Slowdown May Be Worse Than Rported -2
By Market News International || August 23, 2012 at 15:30 GMT

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the second section of the text
of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s Economic Letter on an analysis of
China production statistics, by Janet Koech and Jian Wang, published
Thursday:

Improving Data Reporting

Although China’s economic growth has slowed sharply in recent
months, evidence suggests that the situation may be worse than reported.
Several factors contributed to Chinas slowdown. Demand for China’s
exports in Europe and the U.S. has weakened amid the deepening European
sovereign debt crisis and sluggish U.S. economic activity.

Additionally, China’s policy response following the global
financial crisis is having unintended effects on its economy. China
loosened monetary policy and undertook a massive fiscal stimulus program
in response to 2008-09 developments. These policies, which cushioned the
economy from the impact of falling demand for exports, had the
unintended consequence of generating higher inflation and rising asset
prices, particularly in the real estate sector. These developments
forced China to reverse course and institute tighter monetary policy
last year, creating another round of effects on the economy that
continue this year.

China’s abrupt policy changes during the past two years are not
historically unusual and have been criticized as a source of the
country’s big economic swings, which hurt long-run growth. Future
policymakers will need more, high-quality quantitative (as opposed to
qualitative) economic research to avoid overshooting policy targets and
to better stabilize the economy.

A critical first step is acquiring high-quality economic data, a
process already in the works. Chinas National Bureau of Statistics
started a new data-collecting system under which businesses report
industrial production data online directly to the national statistics
agency in Beijing, reducing the chance of manipulation by local
authorities. As the world’s second-largest economy, China plays an
increasingly important role in the global economy. Acquiring accurate
economic data is not only useful to Chinas policymaking, but also
helpful to other nations, allowing them to better understand China’s
current economic conditions and design their policies accordingly.

About the Authors

Koech is an assistant economist and Wang is a senior research
economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

^^

thanks for the article buddy

Bit confused

Up trend or what

10440 shorts in play,

Longs under water

Has the up trend finished

Keep thinking if the EUR goes up then the AUS would follow

An underwater Bear tried to sell the Aussie to curious Bulls passing by ........

P
It's ok..we are all confused. This maybe a turning point, see some divergence on the smaller tf, should retrace some. The low is 1.0409 ish. If it gets below that look out !!

Hello traders, well as mentioned before 0437 continues to show its supportive value as a key number on the hourly chart. Here is a daily chart to be mindful of. If we can close below 0447 then i would expect the 0437 to give way and open the door to 0376- 0380 (the white dotted line). If 0376-0380 goes we see this bat pattern completion for a PRZ of 0233-0250. As far as the upside is concerned the 0498 is still the key meaning above is bullish and could lead us to 0560 and above for a ride to bear mountain where skis and snowboards will be give out for free for those wanting to enjoy the downhill to .89 lol (I know im out of my mind hahaha but remember you heard it here first lol). Below is bearish with the previously mentioned areas playing a role for the popcorn eating bears enjoying the movie.

BTW if 0498 gets breached and as long as the low at bottom of box is not broken then the pattern that completes at the shaded area on top remains valid and has the potential to bank some pips to the short side

This is a weekly chart. The accuracy is not the same as smaller TF. It has not touched yet.

My 2 cents for you.

The H4 DUTL since Aug. 9 has been broken. After that we've got HH and HL. This is a new sub-trend to me.