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  • #7,621
  • Aug 23, 2012 9:31am Aug 23, 2012 9:31am
Quoting DaddyBear
This is an old news, but may help fundie guys to make some adjustments.

CNBC- http://www.cnbc.com/id/48759469

Australia's resources minister on Thursday declared the end of the country's mining boom, a day after the world's biggest miner BHP Billiton shelved two expansion plans worth at least $40 billion.
Would this cause a free fall of the Aussie?

My view is that the peak of a momentum is not necessary the top of a trend. After the peak, the value of a momentum is still positive. The residual energy may push the trend to a new high in my opinion.
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,622
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:00am Aug 23, 2012 10:00am
are we going up?
  • #7,623
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:02am Aug 23, 2012 10:02am
Quoting tunera
are we going up?
What did your crystal ball say?
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,624
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:03am Aug 23, 2012 10:03am
Quoting tunera
are we going up?
I think so.. that may be a good reason to not buy
  • #7,625
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:06am Aug 23, 2012 10:06am
Quoting KickAss
I think so.. that may be a good reason to not buy
Welcome KA! Please do not kick others' ass. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,626
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:08am Aug 23, 2012 10:08am
my cristal ball say that we are not going up, but a bottom may be formed (and if it's the case, it doesn't mean necessarily that the next step will be an upmove).
I wait
  • #7,627
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:11am Aug 23, 2012 10:11am
Quoting tunera
my cristal ball say that we are not going up, but a bottom may be formed (and if it's the case, it doesn't mean necessarily that the next step will be an upmove).
I wait
What did you mean it doesn't mean necessarily that the next step will be an up move?
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,628
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:18am Aug 23, 2012 10:18am
Quoting DaddyBear
What did you mean it doesn't mean necessarily that the next step will be an up move?
I mean, the correction that bring the price from 1.0540 to 1.0455 is now completed, what happen next can be
1) price get back to the high 1.0540 and then continue to the 1.06xx area
2) price get back to the low of the correction 1.0455, break it, and continue down

Usually when a correction is complete the previous trend is resumed, so the bull idea is not soo bad. But this correction was particulary strong, and price is still very down, i mean we can see price stand at the 50% level of yesterday move, not clearly bullish biased and not clearly bearish biased, directioneless. What your cristal ball say?
  • #7,629
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:19am Aug 23, 2012 10:19am
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome KA! Please do not kick others' ass. -DB-
Thanks DB. I try not but cannot promise
  • #7,630
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:20am Aug 23, 2012 10:20am
I Guess its better to stay away instead of a guess trade like this....!
Attached Image
  • #7,631
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:24am Aug 23, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Hookem28
Buy 1.0463.
Reason: .618 Fib

This is only half a position. Will scale in the other half when it shows reversal.
Entered the other half of my position at 1.0473.
  • #7,632
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:25am Aug 23, 2012 10:25am
Quoting FX-Pro
I Guess its better to stay away instead of a guess trade like this....!
ROFL! What a funny cartoon with a good lesson.
  • #7,633
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:28am Aug 23, 2012 10:28am
Quoting KickAss
Thanks DB. I try not but cannot promise
That's O.K. as long as you don't kick mine.
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,634
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:30am Aug 23, 2012 10:30am
mmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,635
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:31am Aug 23, 2012 10:31am
Quoting tunera
I mean, the correction that bring the price from 1.0540 to 1.0455 is now completed, what happen next can be
1) price get back to the high 1.0540 and then continue to the 1.06xx area
2) price get back to the low of the correction 1.0455, break it, and continue down

Usually when a correction is complete the previous trend is resumed, so the bull idea is not soo bad. But this correction was particulary strong, and price is still very down, i mean we can see price stand at the 50% level of yesterday move, not clearly bullish biased and not clearly...
Why is 1.0455 so meaningful?
daddybearforex. com
  • #7,636
  • Aug 23, 2012 10:41am Aug 23, 2012 10:41am
Quoting DaddyBear
Why is 1.0455 so meaningful?
Because it's the low of today, if we break it maybe the road to 1.04 is opened, or maybe she find support a few pips below, i really don't know!
But looks good, i mean 1.0455 is also the last resistance of yesterday just before the focm upmove, and now it can becomed support, that would make sense, let's see if some big bull hit the buy button
The more time pass the less good it look by the way
  • #7,637
  • Aug 23, 2012 11:07am Aug 23, 2012 11:07am
Forex AUDUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cot-audusd.PNG Size: 34 KB


Australian Dollar Futures

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cot-australian.PNG Size: 36 KB


Green Line: Large Speculators
Blue Line: Commercials

Seems we're at or very near a turning point.
  • #7,638
  • Aug 23, 2012 11:17am Aug 23, 2012 11:17am
Quoting doblece
Forex AUDUSD

Attachment

Australian Dollar Futures

Attachment

Green Line: Large Speculators
Blue Line: Commercials

Seems we're at or very near a turning point.
What does this mean? Could you elaborate please?
  • #7,639
  • Edited 11:55am Aug 23, 2012 11:41am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting Denden2012
What does this mean? Could you elaborate please?
The Commitment of Traders Report is a detail of the net position of three segments of the market: Commercial traders, Large Speculators, and Small Speculators (the red line in the graph).

Extreme positioning (as in this case, net long for the Large Speculators and net short for the Commercials) can be used as an early sign for a market reversal: observe the behaviour in June, for example.

When the market reaches a point where all Large Speculators are buying and there's nobody left to sell (extreme) or viceversa, there is usually a reversal of the previous trend.

You can get the charts and data at http://timingcharts.com/
However I liked their former display better, as it was easier to see the exact data at each point on the graph (maybe they are still in re-construction?).

On the other hand, the COT Index chart shows that we might need some more time to reach extremes, as if we compare with June data we haven't reached the full bottom/top yet.

(the white lines are my addition to compare the levels)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cotindex.PNG Size: 27 KB
  • #7,640
  • Edited 12:30pm Aug 23, 2012 11:44am | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I received a copy of the lab report from Dr. DB's secretary, Ms. Bull.

Here is the report:

"Based on patternological theory, I've found this Bear's DNA is abnormal. His life span could be short.

Signed by Ms. Bull"

Not sure if Ms. Bull had altered the report. I will call Dr. DB later to verify this matter.

Dr. DB sent another lab report of current Bear's DNA.

"The further research revealed the abnormality of this creature's DNA. It had shortened current Bear's life span to less than 24 hours.

Believe it or not!
Signed by Dr. DB
"
What is this?


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1345343890
daddybearforex. com
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