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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #561
  • Aug 22, 2012 11:08am Aug 22, 2012 11:08am
I'm such a terrible trader you should probably write a book about me.... I have a win ratio of about 30% and R/R of 1:1. Go figure.... And there is nothing wrong with my risk management I take 1% losses as my main hobby. I try to follow the trend but I got stopped out ALL THE TIME and my profit target NEVER gets filled.

W.T.F ?!?!
  • #562
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:48pm Aug 22, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting G.p.
I'm such a terrible trader you should probably write a book about me.... I have a win ratio of about 30% and R/R of 1:1. Go figure.... And there is nothing wrong with my risk management I take 1% losses as my main hobby. I try to follow the trend but I got stopped out ALL THE TIME and my profit target NEVER gets filled.

W.T.F ?!?!

So if you just buy when you used to sell - and sell when you used to buy - You now have a 70% win rate at 1:1.

Fixed?

tbh it sounds like one of two things - either your definition of trend following isnt quite right, or your stop is too tight.
  • #563
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:55pm Aug 22, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting LaurenceDale
So if you just buy when you used to sell - and sell when you used to buy - You now have a 70% win rate at 1:1.

Fixed?

tbh it sounds like one of two things - either your definition of trend following isnt quite right, or your stop is too tight.
Or the market is manipulated. I'm going to trade just the open. I usually win there.
  • #564
  • Aug 22, 2012 9:28pm Aug 22, 2012 9:28pm
I am profitable since I started on my real account went from $60 to $120 in four months

so in 7 or maybe 8 years hopefully I am still saying the same % HAHA
  • #565
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:34am Aug 23, 2012 3:34am
Quoting bonmaklad
I am profitable since I started on my real account went from $60 to $120 in four months

so in 7 or maybe 8 years hopefully I am still saying the same % HAHA
Wonderful! Just keep the same heart and mind going and keep the trading plan on the cutting edge.



FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #566
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:41am Aug 23, 2012 3:41am
Quoting G.p.
I'm such a terrible trader you should probably write a book about me.... I have a win ratio of about 30% and R/R of 1:1. Go figure.... And there is nothing wrong with my risk management I take 1% losses as my main hobby. I try to follow the trend but I got stopped out ALL THE TIME and my profit target NEVER gets filled.

W.T.F ?!?!
Some questions for you...

Do you understand market structure as shown on the chart? Are you really listening to the market via price action?

Do you understand how to try to "hide" your stops using price action?

Regarding TPs...if you are trying to close a long (which would take a short to do so), are you considering the bid price when placing your TPs? Do you go to the exact target price per your method or do you shave a little off to increase your probability of getting filled?

So much seems to be needed here based on what you have said.

You may not be a terrible trader, but a good trader with bad information and or technique.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #567
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:44am Aug 23, 2012 3:44am
Quoting LaurenceDale
So if you just buy when you used to sell - and sell when you used to buy - You now have a 70% win rate at 1:1.

Fixed?

tbh it sounds like one of two things - either your definition of trend following isnt quite right, or your stop is too tight.
So if you just buy when you used to sell - and sell when you used to buy - You now have a 70% win rate at 1:1.

Sounds easy, but if it doesn't feel right to the trader to do that, it presents another issue.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #568
  • Aug 23, 2012 3:45am Aug 23, 2012 3:45am
Quoting G.p.
Or the market is manipulated. I'm going to trade just the open. I usually win there.
Sometimes that kind of adjustment is necessary given the trading approach.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #569
  • Aug 24, 2012 5:31am Aug 24, 2012 5:31am
If a trader is not yet consistently profitable, it may not be that they don't know what to do. It could be that they are not doing what they already know to do. How many times have you heard yourself say, "Now w-h-y did I just do that?".

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #570
  • Aug 24, 2012 10:11am Aug 24, 2012 10:11am
Sometimes when in a trade and things are beginning to look "iffy"...in trying to decide what to do at that given moment, I usually ask myself this question, "Based on what I am seeing, what is the market most likely to do at this point (based on prior observation)?" Whatever the answer is I go with it, even it may feel scary at the moment. More often than not, it works out as I have observed in the past.

Be a keen student of how the market behaves. The writing is always on the wall...that price chart.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #571
  • Aug 26, 2012 10:31am Aug 26, 2012 10:31am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Some questions for you...

Do you understand market structure as shown on the chart? Are you really listening to the market via price action?

Do you understand how to try to "hide" your stops using price action?

Regarding TPs...if you are trying to close a long (which would take a short to do so), are you considering the bid price when placing your TPs? Do you go to the exact target price per your method or do you shave a little off to increase your probability of getting filled?

So much seems to be needed here based on what you have...
All your questions need an explanation as I don't understand a bit. Thanks.
  • #572
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:45pm Aug 26, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting G.p.
All your questions need an explanation as I don't understand a bit. Thanks.
G.p.

Here are some replies to those questions:


Do you understand market structure as shown on the chart? Are you really listening to the market via price action?

Price Action/Market Structure. Is price making higher highs/higher lows etc. Is price taking out swing highs or swing lows?

Look at S/R...horizontal price areas.

At the parallels, I look for "confirmed" support or resistance...by price showing some tests/touches along those lines.


Do you understand how to try to "hide" your stops using price action?

You should not place stops in the line of fire.


Regarding TPs...if you are trying to close a long (which would take a short to do so), are you considering the bid price when placing your TPs? Do you go to the exact target price per your method or do you shave a little off to increase your probability of getting filled?

Let's say you are using the price of a Fib Retracement as your target. If the price is 1.22345 and you need a "sell" to close your long, then you need to use the bid price for your TP...or even better, a few pips less than the bid as sometimes "the market" may avoid your Fib price (and other popular approaches).

Hope that clears things up.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #573
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:13pm Aug 26, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
G.p.

Here are some replies to those questions:


Do you understand market structure as shown on the chart? Are you really listening to the market via price action?

Price Action/Market Structure. Is price making higher highs/higher lows etc. Is price taking out swing highs or swing lows?

[color=Black]Look at S/R...horizontal price areas.

At the parallels, I look for "confirmed" support...
I think I understand price action, I spent a lot of time watching the charts.

My problem might be too tight stops (10pips) which causes worse win ratio which doesn't cover my typical 30pip TP targets.

I like trading indexes and currencies which has low spreads. SP500, EUR/USD
and sometimes other pairs based on daily signals.
For SP500 I find 4-8 tick SL appropriate (needs more testing) about currencies I'm not sure yet, 10-15 pips seem okay, not more. I trade on a 5min chart only, also watching daily / 4H signals for possible game-changer trends.
  • #574
  • Edited 1:49pm Aug 26, 2012 1:17pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting G.p.
I think I understand price action, I spent a lot of time watching the charts.

My problem might be too tight stops (10pips) which causes worse win ratio which doesn't cover my typical 30pip TP targets.

I like trading indexes and currencies which has low spreads. SP500, EUR/USD
and sometimes other pairs based on daily signals.
For SP500 I find 4-8 tick SL appropriate (needs more testing) about currencies I'm not sure yet, 10-15 pips seem okay, not more. I trade on a 5min chart only, also watching daily / 4H signals for possible game-changer trends....
So are you scalping? Swing trading? It seems as though you are using cash stops. Is that right?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #575
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:19pm Aug 26, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
So are you scalping? Swing trading? It seems like you use cash stops. Is that right?

FX4
I like to place and close trades within a few minutes. Sometimes I keep positions overnight aswell.

Cash stops? (I don't risk more than 1%)
  • #576
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:22pm Aug 26, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting G.p.
I like to place and close trades within a few minutes. Sometimes I keep positions overnight aswell.

Cash stops? (I don't risk more than 1%)
Trading stocks in 2009-2010 was dumb-easy but forex is a bit more tricky. You can get a trade right, than a news come out for the pound and everything gets messed up. I also try to avoid other USD pairs other than EUR/USD becouse that's just 1 more factor to worry about. EUR/other minor pairs work better, just the spread now always right...
  • #577
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:52pm Aug 26, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting G.p.
I like to place and close trades within a few minutes. Sometimes I keep positions overnight aswell.

Cash stops? (I don't risk more than 1%)
But, if you are using cash stops...meaning, "I will risk 10 pips or 15 pips on this trade) without paying attention to where those 10 or 15 pips will land price-wise on the chart in relation to S.R levels etc. you're asking to have your stop hit.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #578
  • Aug 26, 2012 1:54pm Aug 26, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting G.p.
Trading stocks in 2009-2010 was dumb-easy but forex is a bit more tricky. You can get a trade right, than a news come out for the pound and everything gets messed up. I also try to avoid other USD pairs other than EUR/USD becouse that's just 1 more factor to worry about. EUR/other minor pairs work better, just the spread now always right...
If you're scalping then you really want the smallest spread possible to help you get to profit in the shortest time possible. But, if you have a good entry and you're in the right direction, the spread becomes irrelevant.

Forex is very technically traded and much more volatile than stocks so stock traders need to make the adjustment. Fundamentals do have an impact of course, but I think the impact comes into play differently in FX...my 2 cents.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #579
  • Aug 26, 2012 2:03pm Aug 26, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
But, if you are using cash stops...meaning, "I will risk 10 pips or 15 pips on this trade) without paying attention to where those 10 or 15 pips will land price-wise on the chart in relation to S.R levels etc. you're asking to have your stop hit.

FX4
I enter a positions when it hits resistance or support so anything wider doesn't make sense to me. There is usually another S.R. line not far out but I would rather take it in 2 pieces.
  • #580
  • Aug 26, 2012 2:30pm Aug 26, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting G.p.
I enter a positions when it hits resistance or support so anything wider doesn't make sense to me. There is usually another S.R. line not far out but I would rather take it in 2 pieces.
Good that you enter your positions there, but if you are unhappy with your percentage of stopped-out trades, where you are placing them (your stops) might be something for you to take a look at.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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