High Probabilty Trading

OK. May i know what is your entry level %? And your 2nd target is since you mention other position?

I'm opening 2 positions in 1 time. First is short term - and it wil be defended closer after reaching minimum target, or after opposite DT signal.

Second is long term - that will be defended from H4 DT and target is larger.

Im working on new clear rules - that will give clear open signal
and what is much more difficult clear rules of closing and defending both positions.

OK. What if 2nd target is not triggered but is reversal? Have you profitable so far?

Long term position is defended from H4 DT oscillator - or in first phase can be defended even from H1 DT.

After I get another buy signal while in long position im moving SL below low of this last correction move.

GBP/USD


SL moved - H1 DT gave another buy signal:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JRnQ0T3k4S...0/gbpusd1h.gif

GBP/USD positions closed on SL (about -4pips after SL was moved)




On GBP market really looks like it should go up soon.


GBP/USD is in up trend on H4 - move since 04.30 looks like corrections - thats no doubts about it. Only question for me now is - when it will move up. Seems that not today - im looking for another move down or at least 4H DT go to oversold zone again than I will look for longs again.

Hello I'm on holiday thats why I'm not writting. Anyway still watching markets and skalping. This is really mess what is going on now. Down trends are very strong but is see really good possible bottom o GBP/JPY.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dmwqnA8y8a...0/gbpjpy1d.gif

We are in C wave now of correction (of course it can be wave 3 of 5wave down move) and there are 3 most important fibo levels there.


First 61,8 of last ride up.
Second 127,2 of wave A
And 161,8 of reverse projection of wave B

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V8zBrkFMST...0/gbpjpy1h.gif

After next buy signal on H1 I will put buy stop over top of it and SL just below last low. Giving buy signal should make a nice price action signal also.

GBP/JPY fall down yesterday another almost 200pips - there was no open. Today it is near 78,6 of this big move up and what is more important for me now it stoped very close to 161,8 of wave A (or wave 1) - what is typical for wave C and even more typical for wave 3.


Anyway that should be correction to at least 38,2 of wave C/3 and that will be minimum target of short term position and it is: 125.60

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YLqxamTeRe...0/gbpjpy4h.gif

There is also buy signal on H4 DT.


On H1 You can see that I opened postiion about 10pips higher that it should be opened - but I missed signal candle:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xdwIA6QJ2o...0/gbpjpy1h.gif

Trends are very strong now. After come back home from next week I will test trend short term strategy. Catching little correction with direction of trend. That will be H4 trend, and 15 - 30m Waves count +5minutes DT to open positions.

There should be 2-3positions per day.

Sorry for so long breake. I was on some holiday, and now I'm working on something else.

This porject is called autochartist - You can look at it on http://www.autochartist.com/

This is automatic patterns recognition with high probability.

Im working on trading system and on making much better statistics to choose what patterns, what time frames, what hours and what pairs should be traded.

I think I will begin in about week with new blog and whole statistics. Im working on it for about month and I'm ready to show it.

As an interesting fact I will say that Head and Shoulders and Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns have over 90% of success probability and I already took Statistics from 5brokers and put them together.

I'm not active working on big project - some fresh and new protal about borkers with real test etc.

Here is more info: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=375749

You can find some more details of course on my blog too:

http://forex-futs.blogspot.com/

After starting it - I will come back to trading - and show how Autochartist can help with trading (or even become a system on its own), come back to Elliot/Fibo long term system. But firstly brokers - thats something we all as Traders struggle against

As I have written I'm working on portal about brokers.
It's taking me a lot of time - but its hard for trader to give up what he really loves Thats mean trading.




So I have to confess that I was trying and testing few systems - also still skalp with my old system - but I feel that I'm missing something.




Its wider look on market - and analysis. So I decided that I will still trade with Fibo/Elliot/Momentum system.

Main Time Frame is: H4

Entry is on: H1

Signals: When price on H4 will reach possible retrace zone correct with Elliot wave count and there will be at least 2 most probable Fibo levels (for example for wave C it will be inside reverse of last move, projection of wave A from bottom of wave B etc)
that means there can be signal.

Second: Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5)has to be in oversold/overbuy zone.

Those are 3 (Elliot, Fibo grouping, Momentum) signals and than I'm going to second Time Frame: H1.

When Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) on H1 will give signal (cross of lines in trade direction in oversold/overbuy zone) there will be orders:

Opening position will be 1pips under or 1pips + spread over signal H1 bar.

Always 2 positions: Long Term and Short Term.

Stop Loss will be over last low/high for both.


Short term position manage:

Target for short term is first most possible level. So that will be most often 50% of last wave - or 38,2 if it can be wave 3.
After reaching that level SL will be traill below/over last H1 bar.

If there will be opposite singal on Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) position will be trail just as it would reach target (trail +1 pips below/under last H1 bar)



Long term position manage:

Target for Long Term is far but possible. So for example if it's open on bottom of wave B - target will be most possible end of wave C (typical ABC correction)

But manage will be a little bit more complicated.

First - after reaching target of Short Position - SL will be moved to BE.

Second after second singal on H1 momentum after opening SL will be moved over last low/high before that signal.

After H4 Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5) will give opposite signal trade will be trail stop below/over last H4 bar.

After reaching target it will be traill over last H1 bar.

So thats all - soon analysis

Let me start with something that really shocked me as very high probable bottom of AUD/NZD.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oSW01wlx7f.../gaudnzdd1.gif

Sorry for mess in Fibo - but nothing that can be made more on MT4.


So Firstly we have an ABC correction on D1.


Typical bottom for wave C is 100% of wave A projection. Retracement of last move up: 61,8%.


So there are 2 of them.


But going to H4 shows more:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kQ70NM6WhJ.../gaudnzdh4.gif

There is 1-4 move here and now I'm looking for bottom of wave 5. And typical for it it is: 100% of wave 1 projection - this is here.

78,6 of 1-3projection it is here.

So there are 4 of most probable Fibo group in 10pips range for D1 and H4. That can be really good trade. But in few days. Patience needed.

Now its time for the most popular EUR/USD


Firstly wider look on this pair. I will do it step by step.


So D1:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--0RqL7HOA6...0/eurusdd1.gif

There is no doubt we had down trend.


Now its simple ABC correction (it can be something bigger but lets look on what its "closer" to us)


There was A, B now it should be C.


Only Fibo on this screen is last wave down retrace and now price is around 61,8% of it.


Lets go further:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aOf83M_5y9...usdd1close.gif

Here its is close look on just AB - possible C formation. 3 Fibo are - A wave projection from B. And 100% (most probable) is on 100% zone.
Next Fibo is reverse projection of wave B - 127,2 is in blue zone and its typical level.
There is also outside projection of wave A and 127,2% is also in blue zone.


So lets conclude: there are not 4 fibo (61,8% of D1 retrace also) levels.


Lets move to H4 leaving blue zone:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9nMLkQPv95...0/eurusdh4.gif

There is 3 waves move (it can be abc, or 123) but price stoped almost to pips in 161,8% of wave A from B projectio - what is most typical for wave 3 - but also for wave C. There is another level 161,8% for outside projection of wave A - but bottom of wave B is so close to wave A begin that is should looks like that.




Conclude - EUR/USD is in very strong resistance now. I have already yesterday USA session opened short but I closed it after Momentum made reverse. Now I'm just looking on H1 momentum short signal and open position,

Well short after my post there was a strong brake of those levels.


Let me show You next possible level of retrace:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9E3UA1dT-J...0/eurusdd1.gif

And now H1 - Momentum is far from singal so there was no danger of opening position:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gl5n5Oeoam...0/eurusdh1.gif

First Signal: GBP/CAD sell stop 1.57171. SL 1.77471.

Sell stop moved to 1.5729. SL without change

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lDFxCkGdeB...0/gbpusdh1.gif

GBP/USD reach ideal Fibo grouping level - end of possible wave C on D1.
Momentum on H1 should give sell signal after this bar.


I will put sell stop on about 1.58890

AUD/USD buy stop 1.2395. SL 1.28200. Based on what I have written about it yesterday: HERE
Buy stop 1.28395