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  • #7,261
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:57am Aug 22, 2012 12:57am
Quoting edzalexander
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=7681d706-01b0-4219-b3a6-2049c5dc136e
This news came out last week, but the RBA minutes released yesterday which were to do with keeping the cash rate at 3.5% did not seem dovish hence the market rallied yesterday. However export industry pressure groups have been pushing for the RBA to do something about the strong dollar, luckily unlike most developed countries Australia can lower and keep lowering its interest rate to stem the strength of the Aussie, but bad data from China will do most of the job for them should China ever tell the real truth about how strong their economy really is.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #7,262
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:58am Aug 22, 2012 12:58am
Quoting DaddyBear
FYI, this is a close-up shot of the truck .......
Maybe you should add a bump in the road that says FOMC lol or maybe Bear mountain should be called Jackson Hole with a bear on top with some skiis Some of the best downhill skiing on the planet at Jackson Hole!!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #7,263
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:08am Aug 22, 2012 1:08am
Quoting Robot Trader
This news came out last week, but the RBA minutes released yesterday which were to do with keeping the cash rate at 3.5% did not seem dovish hence the market rallied yesterday. However export industry pressure groups have been pushing for the RBA to do something about the strong dollar, luckily unlike most developed countries Australia can lower and keep lowering its interest rate to stem the strength of the Aussie, but bad data from China will do most of the job for them should China ever tell the real truth about how strong their economy really...
I may not be an expert in Economics, and know very little about it, but if I were them ChinesePandas.. If lying about weak Chinese data can make Aussie lower their currency value (e.g. cut rate), then wouldn't that make it beneficial for China since they can purchase commodities at a lower cost?
Does that perhaps make any logical sense?
  • #7,264
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:12am Aug 22, 2012 1:12am
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=318fd02a-6ca0-46bd-81ca-e1bd64115880
  • #7,265
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:24am Aug 22, 2012 1:24am
Quoting edzalexander
I may not be an expert in Economics, and know very little about it, but if I were them ChinesePandas.. If lying about weak Chinese data can make Aussie lower their currency value (e.g. cut rate), then wouldn't that make it beneficial for China since they can purchase commodities at a lower cost?
Does that perhaps make any logical sense?
Bad Chinese data will help the RBA in that it will not have to cut as much and therefore leave some meat on the bone for later.

Regarding the commodity prices that China pay for Australian raw materials they will more than likely be locked into a contract at a fixed rate of exchange which will have been set a few years back, therefore the mining sector will not be making anymore profit out of China due to an high currency other than perhaps shipping costs being cheaper.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #7,266
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:33am Aug 22, 2012 1:33am
Quoting edzalexander
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=318fd02a-6ca0-46bd-81ca-e1bd64115880
Now that's a good lead indicator, the market will be worried that the RBA will act if this story is true
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #7,267
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:34am Aug 22, 2012 1:34am
Quoting Robot Trader
Bad Chinese data will help the RBA in that it will not have to cut as much and therefore leave some meat on the bone for later.

Regarding the commodity prices that China pay for Australian raw materials they will more than likely be locked into a contract at a fixed rate of exchange which will have been set a few years back, therefore the mining sector will not be making anymore profit out of China due to an high currency other than perhaps shipping costs being cheaper.
I see, thanks for the info Sir Robot Trader. Very insightful indeed.
  • #7,268
  • Aug 22, 2012 1:48am Aug 22, 2012 1:48am
Australia's Capex Cliff

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/08/22/1127671/australias-capex-cliff/
  • #7,269
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:19am Aug 22, 2012 3:19am
Quoting DaddyBear
DB is not a Commy.

Is that an Ausi dust storm I see brewing or a stampede of wild bulls coming?
  • #7,270
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:47am Aug 22, 2012 3:47am
Quoting elljay
Is that an Ausi dust storm I see brewing or a stampede of wild bulls coming?
Maybe wave3
  • #7,271
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:02am Aug 22, 2012 4:02am
Hello again

I one short in at 10432

Looks like it wants to climb a bit

Now me being the master off ending up on the wrong off all these moves.

It would be nice to nut out the moves

I been trading small so risk is low

Pretty sure a lot of traders are having the same problems
  • #7,272
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:12am Aug 22, 2012 4:12am
aud looks weak after indices hit their top yesterday and quickly got rejected

, the closing ytd was not promising for bull actions. fomc later tonight will be havoc again for eur/usd and aus/usd,

i look for a chance to buy even lower. 1.0362.
  • #7,273
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:47am Aug 22, 2012 4:47am
for what it may worth, my view:

peace
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  • #7,274
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:58am Aug 22, 2012 4:58am
Quoting tunera
for what it may worth, my view:

peace

my view is not also different than you best of luck
Trading by EA
  • #7,275
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:06am Aug 22, 2012 5:06am
I have been away on vacation last 2 weeks, and too just to make a proper prediction for the PMI. But it wouldn't surprise me either way, up or down. Have been hearing stories of unsold inventory and factories running despite no orders, but in a country the size of China you could hear a million stories, and still not get the full picture.

But remember, it's only the flash number, and the survey population is skewed towards smaller private companies.

My guess is there is more bad news to come, though it may not be in this number. BHPB announcement today is a more important signal IMHO.

(now boarding train Shanghai, heading back to Beijing, 50 pips in pocket and more coming).
  • #7,276
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:50am Aug 22, 2012 5:50am
Hi.


Will this sound crazy?:
- potential entry on about 1,0410 or lower (PA will tell)
- entry for long till about 1,06 (extreme)

The confusing part is, gold can top at 1650, but than should fall like rock. Normally those two move simmilar, but this time they would decouple big time (wouldn't be the first time thogh...).

Thoughts?

BR
  • #7,277
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:57am Aug 22, 2012 5:57am
Could it be??
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  • #7,278
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:58am Aug 22, 2012 5:58am
Quoting tp0440
Hi.


Will this sound crazy?:
- potential entry on about 1,0410 or lower (PA will tell)
- entry for long till about 1,06 or higher

The confusing part is, gold can top at 1650, but than should fall like rock. Normally those two move simmilar, but this time they would decouple big time (wouldn't be the first time thogh...).

Thoughts?

BR
Why... gold may also go to 1800 without make any lows before, and also we have to say that the correlation audusd/gold is not present in the recent months, i see audusd more correlated with s&p500, or oil.
Gold is more correlated with eurusd now, in other words i would not care about gold at the moment.
We may give a look to s&p500, after hitting the yearly high (yesterday) suddently retraced below the daily low, however imo is still very early to call any reverse, so the overall s&p sentiment remain bullish at least in the near term, and this is good for audusd.

1.06 or higher, i say it's really possible, in a medium-term we can even see 1.0850, i think it's the level that price is currently targeting (longterm).
So, yes a long trade make sense, we just must be careful about today focm, and the implied volatility that may arise from such data.

Best of luck!
  • #7,279
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:06am Aug 22, 2012 6:06am
Quote
BHP Billiton has taken the axe to more than $US30 billion in spending on Australian expansion projects, in the clearest sign yet that the nation is past the peak of its resources boom.

Clear enough sign there hey? Mining boom in Australia and we spent half of it in a bear market. Not happy.
  • #7,280
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:33am Aug 22, 2012 6:33am
Quoting tunera
for what it may worth, my view:

peace
Your view is great and worth 150 pips.
daddybearforex. com
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