AUD/USD

Difference of opinion is what makes a market, and PAL NO I AM NOY RIGHT 100% of the time and I admit that wholeheartedly, most, but not all.

And WTF are you talking about with this "I grew my account" bs..

I've blown accounts and studied Gold, Silver, and certain pairs for years.

Gold + AG 5+...

Now, I see an overwhelming amount of shorts on this forum with no basis. All i try to do is point out the flipside. Just like some stocks are LONG ONLY.

Just b/c this is FOREX, and you can short, without borrowing shares DOES NOT MEAN YOU HAVE TO .....



NEXT AND LAST. I ask about the USD, because YOU obviously have no clue what goes on here. thus, I ask, why o why do you have faith in the USD NOW, it's the race to debase and we are the leader. ponder that. Let's see if you last another 3000 posts while were at it smart a$$

That's fine with me. Good luck trading...

In full transparency
Here is where I stand right now on the currency side of my portfolio.
/6A -12contracts basis: 1.0437 ($5,430)
/DX +25contracts: basis: 82.44 ($7,800)
/6E +2 contracts: Basis: 1.2314 $2825
USD/DKK -200,000 Trade Price: 6.0316 $1,009
-9396 Open PnL

I also trade weekly options which are more that making up for the loss on the currency side but that is a whole other forum and I will stick to currencies. So far the margin on all these contracts combined is $96631 not a lot of money on the account and is still well below my risk factor for the entire portfolio but this trade like I mentioned before is not your everyday day trade but was set up entirely for the Jackson hole announcement.

Why do I believe in the dollar? Honestly I don’t. I only go with the trend and this last year the dollar has outperformed all the currencies of the majors.
USD 10.8%
AUD 1.2%
CAD 0.4%
NZD -0.7%
JPY -3.8%
GBP -4.4%
Gold -12.2%
CHF -18.6%
(cont_)

I will look at and post the performance of dollar on all crosses and show you This year we are not debasing the dollar in fact the dollar has cemented it’s place now more than a long time as the reserve. As for those who say ‘we are going to SDR’s soon and dollar will lose its reserve’ or ‘ As soon as China or Middle eastern countries come up with a way to buy/sell oil direct in MASS without going through the US dollar you will see us fall’ these arguments are negligible at best.



I won’t go into a mass theoretical debate like CNBC when two people disagree on inflation or debasement because I’ts beyond a waste of our time as traders. The dollar trade is simple really as long as Ben stay’s out of the market you will see a rise in the dollar. But I agree with most here once risk picks up again people will flee safety and buy emerging/large cap sending dollar lower but that yet to be seen as ES still need to clear some hurdles notably 1437.

Here is the argument for the shorts:

EUR/AUD is Highly correlated if euro start to appreciate because of stabilization you will see flows coming out of $A and diversified back to EURO’s (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post5936814) per the chart which I can go back to 93’ and show distinctive inverse PA relationships between the EURO and AUD. Now the chart is starting to reverse which means AUD lower.

AUD is attractive because of its rate and the fact that it is trending since 6/1 bottom but the RBA has just introduced and made It clear they are starting to become more concerned with the high rate and will monitor closely. Does this mean they will intervene at these levels, most likely not, but when you Jawbone something strong enough you will either see the market fight the big guy or be prudent and join their side. This is not in the middle stages or even beginning but the fact that speculators are aware the RBA is going to put a cap in between here and 1.09 makes them not want to be heavily long either.


I won’t speak about China because everyone here is entitled to their

opinions on them if they will crash or not; however their credit numbers have come down and are starting to deteriorate. Do I think this will cause a crash no but it will cause headline risk.

Looking at a prior chart another trader pointed out on Elliot wave the 1.06xx area is the topping formation for a move lower on a much bigger macro move(if it plays out)


Last but not least If the EURO is going to finish the year higher possibly 1.26 that will cause Dollar to decline but it will cause AUD to decline more on a percentage basis strictly because other than the rate you receive, overall monetary structure, and a nice trend the fact remains hot money is hot money and we will see if managed accounts flee $A back to emerging market currencies where the return potential is greater or if they sit and capture rate….That remains to be seen.

I will admit if I am wrong come ‘Jackson hold’ and AUD is trading well above 1.06 and Dollar has collapsed until then The trade for a short on a longer term basis (11-15days) still holds. Those trading intraday good luck this week in capturing swings I might add if we move to lower levels.

Aussie facing heavy selling against GPB & euro , Aussie bull having trouble breathing , she may need some rest before resume , i have closed my long as i need to sleep

Keep up the great commentary. I am one of the people that like the sharp details. More exposure to the fine details, will help me to be a great trader someday. You are kind to take your time to give so much of your insight.

Let's see if it makes next R/S

I like fundamental analysis too... Keep it coming

Olu

target?

Thanks,

It's on the chart (red dot line below the sell line). SL is one above, but I will end the position when the price climbs up to the top of 2nd last bar (the previous bar to the last).

open posistion last night..still ok hmm..MI leading Index..

I will check UCAD also when i trade AUD/USD..gold..crude oil

r u short on aud/usd and gold ? and long on ucad ??

with or without those sir..
check out the chart it's clear enough.. success Guys..

jplazard

Quote 1 "margin on all these contracts combined is $96631 not a lot of money on the account"

Quote 2 "
the fact that speculators are aware the RBA is going to put a cap in between here and 1.09"

Re Quote 1 $96,631 not a lot of money?

Re Quote 2, have the RBA actually mentioned a cap or 1.09 or is that your interpretation of the news? I didn't see any mention of that in the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes......

Dab,

Sorry for the late response I am trying to sleep as much as I can to be active and up for the next 1 1/2 days when market activity picks up.

As for my comment about the cap at 1.09 that is circumstantial and it has no fact basis behind it so I will disregard it from my argument. The reason I mentioned it was if RBA is talking at these levels if we are trading at 1.08...1.09.1.10 then they will not only talk but will start to leak they are checking quotes and the probability they will intervene at these levels is much higher.

Those charts on Dollar crosses will be coming soon watching a tutorial right now on how to combine several pairs onto one chart that look's clean.

Good morning all. AUD at the cross in hourly chart. Up or down, or up and down I don't care just waiting for a clear signal in lower time frame.
GL

So do I. Also AUDJPY to go up...

Yes. Yen needs some rest for now. Once the aussi finish the work, the yen will continue the move up... may be ? We never know ???