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  • #6,701
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:03pm Aug 18, 2012 10:03pm
Quoting Esssex


Finally the big boys decided to make a move to kill the weak longs, can't say I didn't tell you so.
Been reiterating that longing the AUD on any pair would be a bad move for positions that are on a TF of more than a day. Just keep your longs to scalps. Already said that the institutional boys were taking money out of AUD and the AUD demand was only being substantiated by the dumb money.

As per my playbook, I've hinted at CAD strength and I've moved the money to the CAD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD. Paying...
"can't say I didn't tell you so."

If you only posted this message once at a time when nobody is in this forum, it would be like the situation that a tree falling in the forest without any one around doesn't produce a sound. In order to make sure your voice are heard, you have to get people's attention and invite opposite opinions to challenge your view. In other words, you have to keep cutting the trees near people's houses.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,702
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:09pm Aug 18, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting angieFX
How far is this decline going to last? I thought 1.0434 will be THE support.
Any other guesses?

Cheers
Welcome angie! I overlooked your post due to delayed posting by FF. I guess you have got the answer already. Seems to me, being right too late may be the best strategy in the Forex trading. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,703
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:17pm Aug 18, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Tell me, where am I right if I were to say the Aud is going to keep going up, but instead it turns around and goes down for a couple of months?
After posting this cartoon, I got this response. The reason why I said nobody is wrong in the markets is because I tend to look at things positively. In addition, nobody would say he was wrong too soon or too late. Am I right?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343646060
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,704
  • Edited 11:15pm Aug 18, 2012 10:23pm | Edited 11:15pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
I did my best using paint HA!
Luis, I thought the one behind the tree is the Bear. Now, I realize that is not the case. Seems to me you are a bull, aren't you?
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,705
  • Aug 19, 2012 1:46am Aug 19, 2012 1:46am
Quoting DaddyBear
BTW, I want to make it clear that my Greek teacher at the ADX school just gave me a D for a recent exam.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1345223050
I went to ADX school this weekend and managed a A+, it was a one to one advanced course, where the teacher spoke English not Greek.

So with a few traders using ADX on this thread, I will now be able to understand and maybe contribute.

I will post a chart showing all indicators that I use that support my bearish stance including the ADX
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #6,706
  • Aug 19, 2012 7:30am Aug 19, 2012 7:30am
Quoting Robot Trader
I went to ADX school this weekend and managed a A+, it was a one to one advanced course, where the teacher spoke English not Greek.

So with a few traders using ADX on this thread, I will now be able to understand and maybe contribute.

I will post a chart showing all indicators that I use that support my bearish stance including the ADX
RT, this could be a good opportunity for me to get a C from my Greek teacher. Looking forward to studying your bearish chart. Please do it ASAP before you change your mind.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,707
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:13am Aug 19, 2012 8:13am
Quoting DaddyBear
RT, this could be a good opportunity for me to get a C from my Greek teacher. Looking forward to studying your bearish chart. Please do it ASAP before you change your mind.
Happy to give my Bearish views with 3 of my more seasoned indicators plus my more recent A+ ADX.

1) RSI for the first time for a while crossed below 50 negative sign
2) Stoch showing divergence
3) ADX and positive DMI showing divergence also ADX line turned down from 30 level to below 20 (indicating either a ranging period, before further up move or top) and now moving back towards 30 while price is moving down could suggest the start of a trend reversal, but ADX is normally only good at finding these in conjunction with divergence which we have. Also the negative DMI crossed above the positive and up towards 30.
4) CCI shows divergence and passed strongly below -100

The RBA hinted late last week of an interest rate cut in September, so the market may well price this in over the coming week, this could be worth anything from 200 to 1000 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily multi indicator.jpg Size: 197 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #6,708
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:13am Aug 19, 2012 8:13am
DB's Law #4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #6,709
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:25am Aug 19, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Robot Trader
Happy to give my Bearish views with 3 of my more seasoned indicators plus my more recent A+ ADX.

1) RSI for the first time for a while crossed below 50 negative sign
2) Stoch showing divergence
3) ADX and positive DMI showing divergence also ADX line turned down from 30 level to below 20 (indicating either a ranging period, before further up move or top) and now moving back towards 30 while price is moving down could suggest the start of a trend reversal, but ADX is normally only good at finding these in conjunction with divergence which we have....
Very good, RT. IMO, RSI, Stoch and CCI are brothers of the same family. So, I would give you one credit for 1, 2 and 4. As to ADX reading, I saw this in my ADX as well but I'd prefer to respond with a patternology chart for your reference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-081812.JPG Size: 120 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,710
  • Edited 9:02am Aug 19, 2012 8:36am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting DaddyBear
Very good, RT. IMO, RSI, Stoch and CCI are brothers of the same family. So, I would give you one credit for 1, 2 and 4. As to ADX reading, I saw this in my ADX as well but I'd prefer to respond with a patternology chart for your reference.
If you believe your indicators are 100% accurate, I'd say threw them all into the dumpster. You see, we would all be billionaires now if they are indeed so accurate.

These indicators are all man-made and visible elements. IMO, they are lower level elements of the Forex hierarchy system.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,711
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:38am Aug 19, 2012 8:38am
Quoting Robot Trader
Happy to give my Bearish views with 3 of my more seasoned indicators plus my more recent A+ ADX.

1) RSI for the first time for a while crossed below 50 negative sign
2) Stoch showing divergence
3) ADX and positive DMI showing divergence also ADX line turned down from 30 level to below 20 (indicating either a ranging period, before further up move or top) and now moving back towards 30 while price is moving down could suggest the start of a trend reversal, but ADX is normally only good at finding these in conjunction with divergence which we have....
You shall be afraid of what you cannot see not what you can see.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,712
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:45am Aug 19, 2012 8:45am
Quoting DaddyBear
You shall be afraid of what you cannot see not what you can see.
When we cannot see something, it does not mean that "something" is not existing. I believe in God but I have never seen Him. However, I do see His reflections around me in my daily life. To me, He is the All Mighty even He is invisible.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,713
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:47am Aug 19, 2012 8:47am
Everyone seems to be jumping on the bear wagon a bit to fast for my taste, it seems like everyone has forgotten about the channel we have been in.

The level it bounced off was always going to be extremely strong resistance, it hit the long term downward trendline, and at the same time hit a 161% fib extension. The fact the PA remained there for so long could be a testament for how much buying interest there is in the AUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #6,714
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:52am Aug 19, 2012 8:52am
Quoting HotBiscuits
Everyone seems to be jumping on the bear wagon a bit to fast for my taste, it seems like everyone has forgotten about the channel we have been in.
HB, I do understand bears' mindset. They see the broken LTL. My question is about the legitimacy of their LTL. TL is a very subjective element. I showed at least three LTLs to the bears in my previous post.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,715
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:53am Aug 19, 2012 8:53am
I think a bounce to 1.0450 will be seen early in the week even if the bears do take it from there..
  • #6,716
  • Edited 2:16pm Aug 19, 2012 9:10am | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting banana
I think a bounce to 1.0450 will be seen early in the week even if the bears do take it from there..
Are you talking about 25 pips move. In that case, I wouldn't call it a bounce. If the target is at the UTL of larger TFs, I'd say it will be "bounced" much higher.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,717
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:11am Aug 19, 2012 9:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
DB's Law #4
Then I choose to be smarter then the market.. Muahahaha! By the way, hope everyone had a good week! and hope everyone has a good week to come!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #6,718
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:13am Aug 19, 2012 9:13am
Quoting palabara
Then I choose to be smarter then the market.. Muahahaha! By the way, hope everyone had a good week! and hope everyone has a good week to come!
I broke even as always :
  • #6,719
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:14am Aug 19, 2012 9:14am
Quoting palabara
Then I choose to be smarter then the market.. Muahahaha! By the way, hope everyone had a good week! and hope everyone has a good week to come!
Say something more important than "Hello". I know you are one of the smart guys.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,720
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:15am Aug 19, 2012 9:15am
Quoting DaddyBear
Say something more important than "Hello". I know you are one of the smart guys.
BTW, I have never seen your charts besides the entries and exits. Are your charts invisible?
daddybearforex. com
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