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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,581
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:47pm Aug 18, 2012 10:47pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
As Al has repeatedly said, do not use recovery for making a profit. There is a reason for this.

Suppose the trader mentioned above has her position turn around and actually make a handsome profit, after she admitted that her entry was poor. If she profits, why learn to make better entries?

Eventually, this works against the trader, and can lead to sloppy entries.

Far better to use recovery to get back to break even and begin a new trade with strict adherence to the rules. That way the trader is learning the correct...
Agree but in this case i don't think the entry was bad. It's just the fact that it is impossible, as Al has repeatedly said, to pick tops and bottoms and more often than not the trades go into negative territory at the beginning and then they turned around to positive territory. Even when you have entered following the entry rules.

Best Regards
  • #12,582
  • Aug 19, 2012 12:20am Aug 19, 2012 12:20am
Quoting gearcila
Agree but in this case i don't think the entry was bad. It's just the fact that it is impossible, as Al has repeatedly said, to pick tops and bottoms and more often than not the trades go into negative territory at the beginning and then they turned around to positive territory. Even when you have entered following the entry rules.

Best Regards
As to not picking tops or bottoms exactly, that's true, it's almost impossible to do it consistently. Trading is after all a game of odds. Not precision. And if we don't have the odds in our favor, we'll lose in the long run.

Waiting for the reversal to one of the bands helps put the odds a little more in our favor by knowing that a possible top has formed.

If you use the semafor for indicating a top and you enter while price is still moving against your position, the semafor can't possibly show a top before you enter, which is what Sabrina's trade entry did.

Once again, you're losing part of your edge with that decision.

If you reread the thread, you'll also find that Al said that recovery is only for trades that are sound, and that follow the rules of the system.

He clearly says that he takes his loses if he's entered a 'bad' trade, or one that goes bad by trending against him, or one where the technicals, or fundamentals no longer support the original direction.

So, relying on recovery and jumping into a trade when price goes beyond the bands (because we can't pick a top/bottom exactly) violates the rules, makes one of the indicators useless, and risks jumping into a trade where the trend and/or the fundamentals have changed because one of the top banksters has just said something that you missed!

You can check with Al to see why he made the requirement of waiting for a reversal to the bands part of the system, and perhaps he can explain it to you better. Good luck!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,583
  • Aug 19, 2012 12:38am Aug 19, 2012 12:38am
Quoting gearcila
Agree but in this case i don't think the entry was bad. It's just the fact that it is impossible, as Al has repeatedly said, to pick tops and bottoms and more often than not the trades go into negative territory at the beginning and then they turned around to positive territory. Even when you have entered following the entry rules.

Best Regards
Besides learning to put the odds in your favor, there are three other qualities agreed on by successful traders as necessary for success. I'm sure you've heard them before ~ discipline, patience, and hard work.

Entering before the price reverses to the bands shows that the trader is undisciplined (not following the rules), impatient (obvious), and needs to work harder to aquire those qualities.

As far as the entry being 'bad', well, it was certainly early, according to the rules, and Sabrina herself thought it was a bad entry.


If you don't follow the rules of your system, you have no edge. If you have no edge, you're guessing. If you're guessing, you're gambling. If you're gambling in the market, you're going to lose...


If you gamble in the market, "...you'll regret it!...Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life!" ~Casa Blanca
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,584
  • Aug 19, 2012 1:13am Aug 19, 2012 1:13am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Besides learning to put the odds in your favor, there are three other qualities agreed on by successful traders as necessary for success. I'm sure you've heard them before ~ discipline, patience, and hard work.

Entering before the price reverses to the bands shows that the trader is undisciplined (not following the rules), impatient (obvious), and needs to work harder to aquire those qualities.

As far as the entry being 'bad', well, it was certainly early, according to the rules, and Sabrina herself thought it was a bad entry....
Thanks a lot for your responses. They make a lot of sense and clearly shows one of my biggest faults which is lack of patience not only to enter the trades but to exit as well not letting the winners run as much as i should.
Seriously, thanks for your input.
Best Regards
  • #12,585
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:10pm Aug 19, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting gearcila
Thanks a lot for your responses. They make a lot of sense and clearly shows one of my biggest faults which is lack of patience not only to enter the trades but to exit as well not letting the winners run as much as i should.
Seriously, thanks for your input.
Best Regards
Hello Gearcila,
I remember that trade, i should have a picture of the chart on my computer at home but now i can not post it because i am on vacation ( Lazy days in the beautiful sea of Croatia....).
Of course the situation was very different from what you see now in the chart because of repainting, but i can Assure you that my entry was bad and i made a mistake, Any way, even if i close the trade at be as Al told me ( His words were very important for me in that moment) and my position was small, the DD was important and it was a nightmare, so no more recovery for me... It is a personal Choice.
Now i use a sl and I am studying Vsa that seems to work well with Al system To find Reversal point and to reduce the stop loss, will see.....

Regards
Sabrina
  • #12,586
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:14pm Aug 19, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
Besides learning to put the odds in your favor, there are three other qualities agreed on by successful traders as necessary for success. I'm sure you've heard them before ~ discipline, patience, and hard work.

Entering before the price reverses to the bands shows that the trader is undisciplined (not following the rules), impatient (obvious), and needs to work harder to aquire those qualities.

As far as the entry being 'bad', well, it was certainly early, according to the rules, and Sabrina herself thought it was a bad entry....
I always love your posts Ever....

Ciao
Sabrina
  • #12,587
  • Edited Aug 20, 2012 8:29am Aug 19, 2012 11:17pm | Edited Aug 20, 2012 8:29am
Quoting gearcila
Thanks a lot for your responses. They make a lot of sense and clearly shows one of my biggest faults which is lack of patience not only to enter the trades but to exit as well not letting the winners run as much as i should.
Seriously, thanks for your input.
Best Regards
Great attitude! Being patient is very, very hard for me, too!

Former teacher => talks too much!

Good luck trading!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,588
  • Aug 19, 2012 11:21pm Aug 19, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting sabrys5769
I always love your posts Ever....

Ciao
Sabrina
Thanks for weighing in! Nice to see part of the old gang show up.

Hope your vacation is going well!

And your trading when you return!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,589
  • Aug 21, 2012 3:09am Aug 21, 2012 3:09am
Yen to Fall 6% Against the Dollar in the Short-Term
US Dollar, S&P 500 Await Clarity at Key Technical Barriers,gold and crude oil Technicals included
The cot index for the last week :
crude, copper, silver, gold, swissy, Lonnie, yen, Aussie, cable, Euro, greenbuck.
AUDJPY Shorts in Play as USDJPY Struggles at Resistance

Market status as of today.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,590
  • Edited 6:11am Aug 21, 2012 3:20am | Edited 6:11am
EURUSD Classic Technical Report 08.21.2012

US Dollar Classic Technical Report 08.21.2012

Important to know for every serious Trader, and part of my daily routine.
I'm looking forward to fade the GY, CHFJ, NJ, NU, SLV, UJ, EJ and several AU pairs will be a candidate for a trade soon.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Classic_Technical_Report_08.21.2012_body_Picture_5.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: US_Dollar_Classic_Technical_Report_08.21.2012_body_Picture_5.png Size: 92 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,591
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:15am Aug 21, 2012 6:15am
And our technical Stats.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily scanner, slope strenght and values.jpg Size: 133 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,592
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:28am Aug 21, 2012 8:28am
Last week COT report for the EURO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT EURO.jpg Size: 51 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,593
  • Aug 21, 2012 12:02pm Aug 21, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting bassramy
Last week COT report for the EURO.
Thanks, Bassramy, for the great info, and for posting. I was wondering where everybody went on this thread. I think it still has a lot of potential.

Good to see that someone is still active!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,594
  • Aug 21, 2012 12:51pm Aug 21, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting bassramy
And our technical Stats.
Hi Bassramy, I see in your charts that you use slope values indicator on 1H TF. I think from what I understood in Nanningbob 10.2 forum that this indicator gives more reliable values only on Daily and 4H TFs (maybe I'm wrong)

Do you think that the values on 1h TF are really "accurate" ? Do you use to trade the pairs in the light of these 1H slope values ?

If I don't bother you, Could you explain briefly your trading methodology ? (main steps of How you proceed). Thanks in advance
  • #12,595
  • Aug 21, 2012 1:11pm Aug 21, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting sabrys5769
... so no more recovery for me... It is a personal Choice.
Now i use a sl and I am studying Vsa that seems to work well with Al system To find Reversal point and to reduce the stop loss, will see.....

Regards
Sabrina
It seems to me that recovery is an attempt to eliminate loses, which is a great idea, of course, and it seems to work very well for Al, and nanningbob.

(One has deep pockets and the other puts on only very small positions, which may be the two criteria for using recovery effectively, and comfortably. ;^)

For those of us with small accounts and high leverage, I suspect that another form of risk management might work better (and allow us sleep better at night! )

I wonder if hedging wouldn't be a better solution? It would seem to do exactly the same thing as recovery without the risk. I think some offered the solution, calling it "locking", but I think that it was just a rose by another name....

Of course, we can't hedge in the U.S., and we've got to comply with the FIFO rule (unless you have $5K to open an account at ATC Brokers!), but it's not restricted for non-U.S. residents (that live in Verona, for example.)

Have you considered it? Anybody have experience with it that would like to weigh in?
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,596
  • Aug 21, 2012 1:15pm Aug 21, 2012 1:15pm
Quoting effluvium
Hi Bassramy,...

If I don't bother you, Could you explain briefly your trading methodology ? (main steps of How you proceed). Thanks in advance
Great idea! At least, whatever bassramy would like to share!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,597
  • Aug 22, 2012 2:42am Aug 22, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Thanks, Bassramy, for the great info, and for posting. I was wondering where everybody went on this thread. I think it still has a lot of potential.

Good to see that someone is still active!
Summer vacation, they will be back in September i guess, i know that volume, liquidity and volatility is, so why not this thread members.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,598
  • Aug 22, 2012 2:46am Aug 22, 2012 2:46am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Great idea! At least, whatever bassramy would like to share!
These indicators are shown randomly i don't use them exclusively on H1 and as you can see my chart is clean, i use H1 only for posting purposes.

Like AL i make a top down slope analysis and i only enter on H1 and only if the 3 TF agrees with the rules, i consider myself a more conservative trader so i like to see the 3 TF under the 0.4 for a short and vice versa for a long before i trade, that gives me less trades and less drawdown.
I hold from D1 band to band and i scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend and i exit all @ the band targeted, i don't ever trade against the trend unless the other D1 band is reached.

I'm still looking for the perfect entry to limit my drawdown but i'm very satisfied with what i use now ( multiple divergence on the bands ).

I use a wide stop loss for emergency since i leave open trades during the night, i don't take trades on Monday before noon London time and on Fridays, and i close all my trades @ the end of the EU - NY interlap session and the close of the London session Friday after noon.

This, basically is my trading plan, i have a more sophisticated MRM for other systems but i don't use them with this one.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,599
  • Edited 3:33am Aug 22, 2012 3:13am | Edited 3:33am
S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

S&P 500, Gold, Crude oil and the US Dollar outlook.

Dollar Retreats against Euro but Risk Trends Notably Absent

Go here and look @ the volatility these days, if your not in vacation and have something better to do, than skip trading these couple of weeks and get back in September.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,600
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:24am Aug 22, 2012 3:24am
Quoting bassramy
These indicators are shown randomly i don't use them exclusively on H1 and as you can see my chart is clean, i use H1 only for posting purposes.

Like AL i make a top down slope analysis and i only enter on H1 and only if the 3 TF agrees with the rules, i consider myself a more conservative trader so i like to see the 3 TF under the 0.4 for a short and vice versa for a long before i trade, that gives me less trades and less drawdown.
I hold from D1 band to band and i scale in with 1 Mini lot every time the TMA turns with the trend and i exit all...
Dear Bassramy,
Thank you very much for your information. Just one qestion? You are looking H1 chart. do you have h1 - h4 - d1 sloppy OR m15 - h1 - h4 sloopy could you reply me.
Best regards.
Bülent
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