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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,561
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:08am Aug 17, 2012 8:08am
Quoting Trainman
The Swap must end up eating half your leg by the time those trades close.
The swap shorting AudUsd is considerable, but usually not over 10% of profit. I consider it a cost of doing business. Of course, it is much, much lower with other pairs.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,562
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:28am Aug 17, 2012 8:28am
Quoting Alorente
The swap shorting AudUsd is considerable, but usually not over 10% of profit. I consider it a cost of doing business. Of course, it is much, much lower with other pairs.
Al, what do you think about UsdCad? PA is below the bottom band of all three TMAs (H1 H4 D1), but on the W1 chart , the PA looks like move to the bottom band of W1 TMA . How to determin direction like this condition?
  • #12,563
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:58am Aug 17, 2012 8:58am
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment : Actual = 73.6, Forecast = 72.5
Consumer sentiment Improving in the US.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,564
  • Aug 17, 2012 10:20am Aug 17, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Fishcoo
Al, what do you think about UsdCad? PA is below the bottom band of all three TMAs (H1 H4 D1), but on the W1 chart , the PA looks like move to the bottom band of W1 TMA . How to determin direction like this condition?
In the case of UsdCad, the W1 is unpredictable, but the D1, H4 and H1 are all ranging. I am long UsdCad and will hold to the opposite D1 band, exiting in stages.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,565
  • Edited 11:52am Aug 17, 2012 11:34am | Edited 11:52am
Potential next week's trade: USDJPY short.

Things to consider:
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement as top (drop from 80,60 to 77,90) has been reached
- H1 TMA above H4 TMA
- H4 and D1 TMA slopes already on acceptable levels
- H1 TMA slope needs to drop a little
- Extreme divergence on TMA Slope indicaotr
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement from current move up would hit 78,50, which will when reached likely match H4 TMA bottom
- 78,50 is also a firm support zone

Al, since you are hunting D1 top, this is likely against your rules, but everything from minutes to h4 supports this trade. I'd be interested to hear your thought as the technicals are quite firm. For me, this would be h1 trade.

BR
  • #12,566
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:56pm Aug 17, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting tp0440
Potential next week's trade: USDJPY short.

Things to consider:
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement as top (drop from 80,60 to 77,90) has been reached
- H1 TMA above H4 TMA
- H4 and D1 TMA slopes already on acceptable levels
- H1 TMA slope needs to drop a little
- Extreme divergence on TMA Slope indicaotr
- 61.8 Fibbo retracement from current move up would hit 78,50, which will when reached likely match H4 TMA bottom
- 78,50 is also a firm support zone

Al, since you are hunting D1 top, this is likely against your rules, but everything from minutes to h4...
I am medium and longer term Long on UsdJpy. See attached chart. I will hold till top channel wall (Around 86). Please, take into account that both the 50 MA (Red) and the 200 MA (Blue) have just been broken, which means they will act as support for price. The Trix is not even close to overbought, as well as RSI. Also, H1 Slope is Buy Only.

I think this move could be very similar to the one in Feb/March.

I would definitely not short here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 148 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,567
  • Aug 17, 2012 2:09pm Aug 17, 2012 2:09pm
You are looking from D1 perspective, while I'm looking from h1 perspective. Huge difference.

But yes, like I said: this is a potential trade, which is not yet confirmed.

Thanks for the answer.

BR
  • #12,568
  • Aug 17, 2012 2:14pm Aug 17, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting tp0440
You are looking from D1 perspective, while I'm looking from h1 perspective. Huge difference.

But yes, like I said: this is a potential trade, which is not yet confirmed.

Thanks for the answer.

BR
So the daily chart is flying up the page but you're still interested in a short on the hourly?
  • #12,569
  • Edited 4:14am Aug 18, 2012 3:42am | Edited 4:14am
That's what I'm looking at this weekend :

EU = No trade, in the middle of the h4 band going down, still have to make it to the lower H4 band.

EG = Short term long, with the D1 trend ( In the middle of the h4 band ).

EA = Outside of the H1 and H4 upper bands, short term short wait for the rules to line up , against the D1 trend.

EJ = @ the top of the upper H1 and H4 bands, short trade but wait for the rules to lines up.

GU =No trade, In the middle of the H4 bands going up, price should hit the upper H4 band soon.

GA = Outside the H1 and the H4 upper Bands, go short when the rules been met, against the D1 trend.

GJ = Outside the H4 Upper band and @ the top of the upper H1 band, go short when the rules lines up, against the D1 trend.

AU = @ outside of the lower H1 and H4 bands. possible long when the rules will lines up, against the D1 trend.

NU = In the middle of the H4 band going down still need to touch the H4 lower band soon, with the D1 trend.

UCHF = in the middle of the H4 band going up opposite to the EU still need to touch the H4 upper band, against the trend.

UCAD = @ the bottom of the D1 , H4 and H1 band strong bearish trend need a strong confirmation that the trend is changing, wait for the rules to line up.

UJ = H1 bands way over the upper h4 band , strong bullish trend, possible short but wait for extra confirmation such as the rules + the H1 band bear cross over the H4 band .

Silver = In the middle in the H4 band going up still has to make it to the upper H4 band.

Gold = Same as Silver.

P.S. ATR Multiplier = 2.5

Best Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,570
  • Aug 18, 2012 4:06am Aug 18, 2012 4:06am
Quoting bassramy
That's what I'm looking at this weekend :

EU = No trade, in the middle of the h4 band going down, still have to make it to the lower H4 band.

EG = Short term long, with the D1 trend ( In the middle of the h4 band ).

EA = Outside of the H1 and H4 upper bands, short term short wait for the rules to line up , against the D1 trend.

EJ = @ the top of the upper H1 and H4 bands, short trade but wait for the rules to lines up.

GU =No trade, In the middle...
Excellent and very helpful analysis. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,571
  • Aug 18, 2012 4:08am Aug 18, 2012 4:08am
I was doing my next week homework and i want to share with you my conclusions .
What's expected next week.

Dollar: Return of Volatility Inevitable and With it a Dollar Rally?
Euro Poised for Breakdown, but Timing Eludes Us – Time for Plan B
Japanese Yen at Risk for Further Weakness on Slowing Recovery
Second Quarter GDP will Highlight Fragility of British Economy, Hurt GBP
Gold to Threaten Range as Fed Talks Down QE3- FOMC Minutes on Tap
Australian Dollar: Risk Trends, Nascent Intervention Threat in Focus

The implications from low volatility remain. So is ‘an explosion in volatility’ underway? The weight of evidence, including divergence between risk barometers in equities and FX, suggests yes.

AUDUSD: Looking to Sell on Channel Breakout.

EURUSD: Waiting for Short Trade Setup to Emerge.

GBPUSD: Consolidation Persists Below 1.58 Level

 USDJPY: Buyers Push Prices Toward 80.00 Figure.

USDCAD: Prices Inch Toward Key April Low.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Waiting_for_Short_Trade_Setup_to_Emerge_body_Picture_5.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Looking_to_Sell_on_Channel_Breakout_body_Picture_5.png Size: 114 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,572
  • Aug 18, 2012 4:09am Aug 18, 2012 4:09am
Quoting Alorente
Excellent and very helpful analysis. Thanks.
You are welcome Master AL.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,573
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:19am Aug 18, 2012 9:19am
Quoting bassramy
I was doing my next week homework and i want to share with you my conclusions ...
BR, I really appreciate you posting these analyses, it is a great help.

I strongly agree with the conclusion that USD is poised for a major move upward. In studying trending vs. ranging markets, I have observed that the markets seem to go into strong trends perhaps a couple of times per year. The last time was in May. In the last 3 weeks of April, the volatility was very low. See EURUSD daily to see what I mean. Also see the last two weeks of August 2011, April 2010 and Nov 2009. Markets swing from low volatility to high volatility; traders that become accustomed to low volatility trendless conditions get caught off guard when a high volatility trending period comes.

Fundamentally, the problems faced in the euro area have not gone away; the euro is just a fly hovering on the freeway waiting for the next windshield. USD hasn't seen either bad nor good news for a long time. With the major elections in November, the next FOMC meeting is viewed as the last chance this year for the Fed to do QE3 without appearing to interfere with the election. When that milestone is passed, the markets will see no further cause for caution with USD and will put the pedal to the metal, as the expression goes.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #12,574
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:49am Aug 18, 2012 9:49am
ExtremeTMA info will not work correctly on H4 shows wrong H1 and M15.
If you can fix and add TmaSlope from M1 to D1.
Thank you
  • #12,575
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:40am Aug 18, 2012 11:40am
Quoting bassramy
GJ = Outside the H4 Upper band and @ the top of the upper H1 band, go short when the rules lines up, against the D1 trend.
Hi,

Sorry, I don't speak english well enough and I have a doubt about what you mean by "against the D1 trend".

Do you mean that we have to wait until the upper TMA band has been touch before considering a short trade ?

Regards,

Fable
  • #12,576
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:26pm Aug 18, 2012 7:26pm
During these times when this great system seems not to work and you keep praying that your pair(s) turn around so you start seeing some green numbers in your open trades, it is nice to see AL an other senior traders express their confidence in the system. To help myself and others gain that same confidence please take a look at post 9284 from April 20 2012 in which member sabrys5769 says "I'm also short on GU from 1.6120, this is a recovery trade (my first... very difficult...) i know i made a great mistake on my entry.. so if i will be able to do this it will be a great thing for me..." and AL replies: "You´ll be ok, Sabry. Recovery will work for you." ..... Looking at the Daily GU chart a few months later.... you can see how things evolved and the member not only wouldn't have lost a thing but if he/she would have held the position(s) long enough he/she would have made some awesome bucks from it. See the attached chart and notice the red line i drew where Sabry entered:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Daily.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #12,577
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:52pm Aug 18, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
So the daily chart is flying up the page but you're still interested in a short on the hourly?
Take h1 chart and zoom it out extremely. Than compare it to D1.
I didn't say, this was a safe trade or a trend trade, but note:
- D1 slope is still negative and weekly neutral
- Above means, uptrend is actually not yet established
- All of this means, that (as it was already mentioned), volatility will start. What looks as volatile short move on D1 is a huge move on h1.

Bottom line: this will not be easy and can hurt even seasoned trader, but is actaully possible. We'll see what PA shows us.

BR
  • #12,578
  • Aug 18, 2012 8:26pm Aug 18, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting gearcila
.... you can see how things evolved and the member not only wouldn't have lost a thing but if he/she would have held the position(s) long enough he/she would have made some awesome bucks from it....
Attachment
As Al has repeatedly said, do not use recovery for making a profit. There is a reason for this.

Suppose the trader mentioned above has her position turn around and actually make a handsome profit, after she admitted that her entry was poor. If she profits, why learn to make better entries?

Eventually, this works against the trader, and can lead to sloppy entries.

Far better to use recovery to get back to break even and begin a new trade with strict adherence to the rules. That way the trader is learning the correct method and avoiding hopium addiction!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #12,579
  • Aug 18, 2012 8:32pm Aug 18, 2012 8:32pm
I Think what we have in the pair AUDUSD its a correction in a big uptrend...IMO Al u need to wait a little bit to be in profit..:-)
  • #12,580
  • Aug 18, 2012 8:36pm Aug 18, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting gearcila
During these times when this great system seems not to work and you keep praying that your pair(s) turn around so you start seeing some green numbers in your open trades,...
Attachment
Following the rules on the first post would have turned this trade into a profitable one without recovery:

"...3- We will now wait for price to climb above the top band of all three TMAs (M15, H1 and H4) at the same time, before placing a short trade ....

4- The Trigger: Once Rule 3 is complied with, the trade will be entered once price turns around and touches the next Upper TMA band for Shorts ... (It can be any of the 3 TMA time frame bands, M15, H1 or H4. Refer to Rule one again before entering trade to make sure that the 3 TMA slope values are still Ranging or in the direction of your trade. If they are not, wait until they return to the correct slope values for your trade."
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
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