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  • #6,681
  • Aug 18, 2012 2:49am Aug 18, 2012 2:49am
Quoting Robot Trader
I thought I would be bold and post my H4 chart for reference of the highly possible Bear move to the 61.8 Fib which is inline with my Daily divergence target.

So I am amusing that we have now found our last high and that this is the start of the down move. If this turns out to be correct then on the way down the Fib Fan levels should be respected.

It will be interesting to see over the coming days how this plays out, based on say 50 pips per day I am expecting the move the take 5 to 6 days to reach the 61.8 level allowing for rallies which I...
Now its on a daily uptrend point of trendline, and also on the top of weekly trend down. and near term trend down .

I am looking to long soon, i don't like shorting aud/usd because of swap, only short from 1.0580-1.0610,, any other numbers are still a risk.

I will long soon if support is established on the trendline, with a 20-30 stops, then i will skip longing it anymore until its out from trending down.

trendline can be re-draw over and over so many tl everywhere, so sometimes may not work 100%. I will monitor monday's asia hours on this pair.

which was why i didn't recommend to long until monday, the closing on aud/usd was weak and its not healthy to pull through weekend if its on the verge of falling down more.
  • #6,682
  • Aug 18, 2012 2:50am Aug 18, 2012 2:50am
Quoting DaddyBear
Some people were talking about the break of LTL. But, I looked at the daily chart and found at least three LTLs. The one broken yesterday can only prove that it might not be drawn correctly in my opinion. The other two are far from the current level.
I don't know Papa, but sometimes I think TLs are made to be broken..it could be broken from above and re-broken from bellow without any indication of a trend change. It happened to EU a few days ago where a broken ascending LTL were easily stabbed back from bellow the day after, like nothing had happenned on the previous day. From my point of view, TLs sometimes made me more confused
  • #6,683
  • Aug 18, 2012 3:34am Aug 18, 2012 3:34am
These are some numbers from the D1 charts that I should be looking at

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1 533.gif Size: 17 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1 1433.gif Size: 16 KB


Both stoch 5,3,3 and 14,3,3 have two similar targets which are 1.0356 and 1.0359 respectively, so I'm expecting there would be some strong supports around the area which possibly will give this pair a bounce to 1.06 or even 1.07.
But in other hand if in any case this pair manages to break the 1.0356 - 1.0359 area, the next numbers to watch would be 1.0321 and 1.0284

With the same kind of method H4 is showing me these numbers

stoch 5,3,3 :
10448
10437
10418
10398

stoch 14,3,3:
10413
10398
10370
10342

And last but not least, these are the W1 bull targets where most of them have been achieved recently

stoch 5,3,3:
10323
10393
10522
10650

stoch 14,3,3
10364
10439
10578
10716


Have a great weekend guys!
  • #6,684
  • Aug 18, 2012 3:47am Aug 18, 2012 3:47am
Quoting 5percent
Now its on a daily uptrend point of trendline, and also on the top of weekly trend down. and near term trend down .

I am looking to long soon, i don't like shorting aud/usd because of swap, only short from 1.0580-1.0610,, any other numbers are still a risk.

I will long soon if support is established on the trendline, with a 20-30 stops, then i will skip longing it anymore until its out from trending down.

trendline can be re-draw over and over so many tl everywhere, so sometimes may not work 100%. I will monitor monday's asia hours on this...
Yes it may well bounce off the lower up trend channel, but providing it respects the 76.4 level of the Fib Fan we may have found the top so get ready for a move down to the 61.8 Fib or the 1.02 level.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #6,685
  • Edited 10:47am Aug 18, 2012 10:26am | Edited 10:47am
This is a time of confusion again. I saw a lot of bearish movement in people's mind now. I'd make my view short because less is more. The down move since Aug. 9 has been a corrective move which will be corrected by an up move. Bear in mind, the end of a trend is not necessary the highest point.

On July 15, I posted this cartoon in AUDUSD forum. (This cartoon message was removed by old guards later.) It was at a time very similar to current situation. Looking into the future may be difficult but learning something from the past could be more difficult to some people IMHO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342456421
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,686
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:40am Aug 18, 2012 10:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
. Looking into the future may be difficult but learning something from the past could be more difficult to some people IMHO.
INDEED
My Currency is Urgency
  • #6,687
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:59am Aug 18, 2012 10:59am
Quoting DaddyBear
Looking into the future may be difficult but learning something from the past could be more difficult to some people IMHO.
  • #6,688
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:06am Aug 18, 2012 11:06am
Quoting irfandbl
DB's Law #3.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,689
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:16am Aug 18, 2012 11:16am
Quoting DaddyBear
DB's Law #3.
now that's the law that I have and need to violate everyday
  • #6,690
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:03pm Aug 18, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting irfandbl
now that's the law that I have and need to violate everyday
Smoking means one cannot control one's own emotion. This is not a tasty ingredient of green pips recipes IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,691
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:35pm Aug 18, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Smoking means one cannot control one's own emotion. This is not a tasty ingredient of green pips recipes IMO.
Hello, Db and gang.. I'm back (thank jebus) done with my hellish 2 weeks!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #6,692
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:35pm Aug 18, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting palabara
Hello, Db and gang.. I'm back (thank jebus) done with my hellish 2 weeks!
Welcome back, palabarapalabarapalabara!
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,693
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:34pm Aug 18, 2012 7:34pm
possible targets, that is if we clear 1.04 defenses...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_positiontrade16.jpg Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_positiontrade17.jpg Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_positiontrade18.jpg Size: 96 KB
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,694
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:56pm Aug 18, 2012 7:56pm
I did my best using paint HA!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bull bear.png Size: 62 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,695
  • Edited 9:39pm Aug 18, 2012 8:46pm | Edited 9:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is a time of confusion again. I saw a lot of bearish movement in people's mind now. I'd make my view short because less is more. The down move since Aug. 9 has been a corrective move which will be corrected by an up move. Bear in mind, the end of a trend is not necessary the highest point.

On July 15, I posted this cartoon in AUDUSD forum. (This cartoon message was removed by old guards later.) It was at a time very similar to current situation. [b]Looking into the future may be difficult but learning something from the past could be more...
I know currently bears use TL, FIB, R/S and etc. to support their views. These are all visible elements of charts. However, we shall not be afraid of what we can see but what we cannot see.

Some people may argue that no such invisible elements or they are too subjective if ever existed. Are TL and R/S objective? Is sentiment visible?

To determine the market's next major moves, the highest level elements shall be taken into consideration first. In other words, the Forex market is a hierarchy system. The lower level visible elements serve the purposes of the higher level invisible elements.

In fact, I prefer bears keep their views. Otherwise, the market will not function the way it is supposed to be.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,696
  • Aug 18, 2012 8:50pm Aug 18, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
I did my best using paint HA!
It's a very interesting cartoon. I guess the hammer should be in bear's hands.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,697
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:12pm Aug 18, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It's a very interesting cartoon. I guess the hammer should be in bear's hands.
Sure!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,698
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:38pm Aug 18, 2012 9:38pm
Recently I was asked about what the mechanism of my decision making in trading the Forex market is. To be honest, I've never thought about this issue before.

In my opinion there could be a chemical reaction instead of a mechanism in my trading decisions making. I mixed different chart elements and my own passion to produce an impulse then press the button. This was what happened every time I entered or exited a trade. I hope my answer is crystal clear to that person who asked this question.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHEMISTRY.JPG Size: 71 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,699
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:44pm Aug 18, 2012 9:44pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Recently I was asked about what the mechanism of my decision making in trading the Forex market is. To be honest, I've never thought about this issue before.

In my opinion there could be a chemical reaction instead of a mechanism in my trading decisions making. I mixed different chart elements and my own passion to produce an impulse then press the button. This was what happened every time I entered or exited a trade. I hope my answer is crystal clear to that person who asked this question.
BTW, I want to make it clear that my Greek teacher at the ADX school just gave me a D for a recent exam.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1345223050
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,700
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:52pm Aug 18, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting KiNgEdwarD

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344999577

which # is mine?
#5!
daddybearforex. com
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