AUD/USD

Thank you I think that could be an interesting level. All I know is if we dont close EOD above 1.0460 I am going to start the BIG short early putting in the first leg EOD for a gap lower and

Ride LONG dollar short AUD all the way till Ben comes out Sept1

Filled @Long 1.0440 SL 1.0420. Target 1.0465

If I get stopped out I will have the 1st leg September short sitting at 1.04 -3contracts

Everyone watch out for S&P futures hitting 1419 if we hit look to lighten up on the long position.

No more entry this week. I may take a long for 50 pips next week if only the price hits EMA200 (4H) and bounces.

Good luck guys

First leg of AUD short put in at 1.0425 (1.04/6a)
I am also Long Dollar index at 82.44

This market is going lower. Dollar will further appreciate going into Jackson Hold. September will be something like May very trendy.

I will not be day trading the only time I will hedge these two positions is:

-Court ruling ESF fund approval where AUD will get a nice lift
-We could have a Sunday Bar that matches half of this candle then we continue lower

-That’s about it otherwise the unwinding of longs from those who have been sitting in this upward market in AUD will increase as we progress into Sept. I am looking at 0.99 as a target but will adjust when we start heading lower as I still do not show the B wave yet.

Dollar hold will also he held throughout This month and into Sept.

(I will post much less as intraday levels really are not my focus anymore anyone that wants to talk intra day or talk about general weekly S/R levels PM me or skype me)

I will keep everyone posted here and there but because this trade will be a big short for me I will focus the majority of my time on charts and DOM.

Best of Luck all and I hope Sept will be one of your biggest months you will have in you new/senior trading careers.

Someone came in with a 125 lot sell order sitting two ticks away on Futures 1.0386 if that baby gets touched before the settlement close here (18min) were gapping down on AUD/USD not much but possibly 1.0390-80

Have a great weekend all.

meaning gapping down on Sunday open if ppl are wondering about when

Closed below 61.8fib ret from '11 july/'11 september. also pin bar formed, suggesting we may very likely see a test of 1.02x zone next week.

Paul what time frame is that Daily H4?

Weekly.

I see thank you that is a nice pin bar for a setup next week. I am already short going into the weekend but noticing on the futures side the last minute a bunch of orders came through. I know shorts closing trades but this was abnormal compared to every other Friday going back about 3 months. I saw the usual program closing from algos EOD than a few bigger orders came through that were large to say the least. Let's hope that is also shorts covering, we will see on Sunday.

What does EOD mean. You are very smart. I don't have all the special acronyms memorized yet. Also.. When the Fed gets involved with stimulus =Quantitive Easing... Does that mean buy or sell the dollar and why?

The failure at 1.06 was very nice as it continued the descending resistance from August 2011. However, we've been range trading since June 2012:

http://screencast.com/t/irqGoYlCb

AUDUSD and /ES (S&P Futures) have high correlation even though that percentage has gone down in the last few days:

http://screencast.com/t/njurGc987

That said, the /ES is now approaching prior highs, and I don't know whether this market can continue grinding up without some type of healthy pullback.

http://screencast.com/t/YwIpKQcn

I think there's a possibility of a pullback to 1400. Open Interest last Expiration period was about 12k at 1400 strike. So I expect some type of bounce there if we pull back.

Putting it altogether, if RBA acts, /ES decides to pullback, AUDUSD can see a good size pullback that.

For now, will trade what the market permits.

Weekly looks very bearish to me, reversal pattern

Back to the future?...

http://a0.twimg.com/profile_images/1...ably_small.jpg

Pair me up,
Thank you that is very kind, but I am no smarter than the newest trader who starts. We can all go over data till were blue in the face but execution and money management make sure you stay in the game to catch the big moves. EOD is end of day which on Friday’s close can give you some clues as to how we might open up On Sunday given the adjusted in the fix for the currency rates over the weekend.
Quantitative Easing will continue to put rise on Indices and risk assets like commodities. People will believe inflation occurs on prices causing flight to higher yielding assets that outperform inflation like Gold and in this case AUD with its lending rate. Although If QE3 comes down the line I don’t think AUD will outperform like it has done prior because its overvalued and will soon cause pricing pressure on exports.
If you want a great breakdown on how we are to perform or possible outcomes check out pdtpatrick( great analysis, very simple and to the point) post above. He has basically laid out what the charting side is telling us. ES (s&p500) can trade up with AUD but he also pointed out Correlation is starting to wane on AUD/ES.

I guess if you’re an intra day trader you won’t have to concern yourself too much with the macro side, but I am more of a position trader capturing several cents so if you believe QE will not come in the marketplace on September 1 than start getting your short positions in this week for the announcement then. Or vice versa look to buy pullbacks so that if we come in with easing you will be well positioned for 1.08

Considering a short around 1.045, your thoughts are appreciated.

caution on shorts s&p ready to rock the roof

I'm looking at the same entry option.

Look to these levels. 1.0455 then 1.0475. Maybe try a pobe short at .0455 then the bigger short leading into 1.0475. Anything higher than that you might as well wait until we reach 1.05. And set your stop losses tight at each level.

If we do reach 1.05 I am selling more and will look to the upper channel to see how much much momentum their is to carry us lower.