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Extreme TMA System

  • #12,541
  • Aug 17, 2012 4:15am Aug 17, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Alorente
Other commodity currencies Aud and Nzd have begun to give way. Cad should follow soon. Maybe with todayīs CPI figures.
Aussie and Kiwi are showing a sign of weakness these last 2 days after a huge bull run since the 1 of June.
AUDUSD is turning lower after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at the top of a rising channel carved out since late June. A break below the 1.05 figure initially exposes 1.0443, with a break below that aiming for 1.0328.
However i don't think that the bull trend has finished we are looking @ a major correction but not the end of the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 89 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,542
  • Aug 17, 2012 4:25am Aug 17, 2012 4:25am
Just for Ur attention the Cable pairs are showing a strong signs of bearish reversal not the cable itself but the other pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,543
  • Edited 5:59am Aug 17, 2012 4:32am | Edited 5:59am
Lonnie or UC, not just yet. And taking in consideration the risk events today for this pair ( Core CPI m/m ) and the forcasted results, there should be a continuation of the trend, of course pending surprises.
Here is a complete breakdown of this event.
USDCAD: Trading Canada’s Consumer Price Report.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.jpg Size: 76 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,544
  • Edited 5:06am Aug 17, 2012 4:42am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting Alorente
That is why I like to begin my analysis with the W1 and D1 TMAs. They are much more stable than the shorter term TMAs and much better for determining direction.
I just learnt the importance of this yesterday. It gives one the true picture of where the trade is heading to without trading against the trend. It also gives one the confidence that if you pick a trade and it initially go against you, definitely it will still come back so far it aligns with the D1 and W1. It is a complete overview of where the trade is heading. It's a nice one.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #12,545
  • Aug 17, 2012 5:10am Aug 17, 2012 5:10am
Quoting Alorente
Hello Shah. Nice to have you back.

Thx big AL

seems some little changes in the rules
  • #12,546
  • Aug 17, 2012 5:18am Aug 17, 2012 5:18am
Quoting Trainman
I have an even better idea: how about an EA that puts a great big button on the screen, and all you have to do is click the button and the DVD drive slides open and money comes out, like an ATM?

Mr. C, can you please program one of these for us, pleeeeze?

Oh - and I also want a helper application that pushes the button for me, as it is so much work clicking that button all the time...



Edit: Shahrooz, this was not meant to make fun of you. It is just that we have all been beginners once and have all made pretty much the...

I am not here to joke man , playing with blogs and forums is not some thing fun at all, "to learn , to teach and progress together" is the key factor here!
I I mentioned something about crystal balls, I just wanted to say "hey every one there is not such a thing , try to accept the facts"
  • #12,547
  • Aug 17, 2012 5:41am Aug 17, 2012 5:41am
Here's a screen capture of AUDUSD Daily showing the AUD index (computed similar to the USD Index). It has clearly broken its trend line and is headed lower. (Sorry, I can't post this indi. But LiteForex computes such indices and may even offer trading on them.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.jpg Size: 112 KB
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #12,548
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:13am Aug 17, 2012 6:13am
Aussie just hit the lower board. This trade was with the trend ( Bearish ).His daily range been more then the average today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.jpg Size: 86 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,549
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:32am Aug 17, 2012 6:32am
Quoting Tess1
I just learnt the importance of this yesterday. It gives one the true picture of where the trade is heading to without trading against the trend. It also gives one the confidence that if you pick a trade and it initially go against you, definitely it will still come back so far it aligns with the D1 and W1. It is a complete overview of where the trade is heading. It's a nice one.
This is an important point. As long as you are trading in favor of the D1 TMA, even if the trade initially goes against you, it will eventually travel to the D1 opposite band and allow you to recover. Very good, Tess.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,550
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:34am Aug 17, 2012 6:34am
Quoting Trainman
Here's a screen capture of AUDUSD Daily showing the AUD index (computed similar to the USD Index). It has clearly broken its trend line and is headed lower. (Sorry, I can't post this indi. But LiteForex computes such indices and may even offer trading on them.)
Yes. The RSI trendline almost always breaks before the price trendline. This is a nice trick that allows you to confirm the turn and jump in near the top or bottom (Long or Short).
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,551
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:42am Aug 17, 2012 6:42am
Quoting Alorente
This is an important point. As long as you are trading in favor of the D1 TMA, even if the trade initially goes against you, it will eventually travel to the D1 opposite band and allow you to recover. Very good, Tess.
U Have to have a big confidence in the system to believe that PA will eventually goes to opposite band, and if you have confidence enough you scale in every time it retrace against the prevailing trend and begin to goes with the trend one more time.
This is one of the most profitable Tactics in the Trading world, buying on dips and selling short on rallies, and this system beautifully give you the Minor and the major signals needed to enter, scale in and to take profit.
And that's how i trade it.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,552
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:57am Aug 17, 2012 6:57am
Quoting bassramy
U Have to have a big confidence in the system to believe that PA will eventually goes to opposite band, and if you have confidence enough you scale in every time it retrace against the prevailing trend and begin to goes with the trend one more time.
This is one of the most profitable Tactics in the Trading world, buying on dips and selling short on rallies, and this system beautifully give you the Minor and the major signals needed to enter, scale in and to take profit.
And that's how i trade it.
Yes. Definitely. I scale into every trade and scale out also. It is impossible to pick the exact top or bottom consistently, but if you scale in and out, you donīt have to.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,553
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:08am Aug 17, 2012 7:08am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. Definitely. I scale into every trade and scale out also. It is impossible to pick the exact top or bottom consistently, but if you scale in and out, you donīt have to.
For example, I built a 10 lot position on AudUsd, two lots at a time. I started at 1.0375, 1.0410, 1.0450, 1.0505 and 1.0590. Average entry price: 1.0466.

I intend to exit 2 at a time at:

1.0375, 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0100. Average exit price: 1.0245.

A nice 221 pips with the 10 lots.

I may vary my exits a bit as I see how price is behaving, but the concept is the same for all my trades. This is a consistent and stress free way to trade.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,554
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:26am Aug 17, 2012 7:26am
Nice.

And if it goes to 1,06? 1,08?

I appologize, no harm intended, but what you described is a sure way to bust your account. Unless you have a few millions on it. That you can afford such way of trading.

Please don't forget to note this: the positions MUST be appropriate to the account size. If someone with 10k or 20k account will be playing this rullete with 1-2 full lot positions, he'll be broke in no time. I think we've seen plenty of times your own entries being way to early. AUDUSD or USDCAD are great examples.

BR
  • #12,555
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:30am Aug 17, 2012 7:30am
Quoting Alorente
For example, I built a 10 lot position on AudUsd, two lots at a time. I started at 1.0375, 1.0410, 1.0450, 1.0505 and 1.0590. Average entry price: 1.0466.

I intend to exit 2 at a time at:

1.0375, 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0100. Average exit price: 1.0245.

A nice 221 pips with the 10 lots.

I may vary my exits a bit as I see how price is behaving, but the concept is the same for all my trades. This is a consistent and stress free way to trade.
Done the same thing with AU now target already hit, 3 mini lots at upper h1 band with target lower h4 band, and doing the same already with different pairs .
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,556
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:38am Aug 17, 2012 7:38am
Quoting tp0440
Nice.

And if it goes to 1,06? 1,08?

I appologize, no harm intended, but what you described is a sure way to bust your account. Unless you have a few millions on it. That you can afford such way of trading.

Please don't forget to note this: the positions MUST be appropriate to the account size. If someone with 10k or 20k account will be playing this rullete with 1-2 full lot positions, he'll be broke in no time. I think we've seen plenty of times your own entries being way to early. AUDUSD or USDCAD are great examples.

BR
Like AL noted a zillion times Position sizing is key in this system, and it works magic in these situations that you mentioned.
A good MRM ( Money and Risk Management ) strategy will be to enter with a small position and then scale in as the trade goes your way.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,557
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:41am Aug 17, 2012 7:41am
USDCAD Core CPI m/m down 0.1 %.Take a look at the Lonnie.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #12,558
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:42am Aug 17, 2012 7:42am
Quoting Alorente
For example, I built a 10 lot position on AudUsd, two lots at a time. I started at 1.0375, 1.0410, 1.0450, 1.0505 and 1.0590. Average entry price: 1.0466.

I intend to exit 2 at a time at:

1.0375, 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0100. Average exit price: 1.0245.

A nice 221 pips with the 10 lots.

I may vary my exits a bit as I see how price is behaving, but the concept is the same for all my trades. This is a consistent and stress free way to trade.
The Swap must end up eating half your leg by the time those trades close.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #12,559
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:49am Aug 17, 2012 7:49am
Quoting bassramy
Like AL noted a zillion times Position sizing is key in this system, and it works magic in these situations that you mentioned.
A good MRM ( Money and Risk Management ) strategy will be to enter with a small position and then scale in as the trade goes your way.
Do you percieve Al's post reflects this? Entering 2 full lots in the first positon is NOT scaling in.

1. There are new traders here
2. 2 full lots sound tempting. To tempting....
3. Post implies, there is like 0 chance, something can go wrong. This is as far away from the truth as it can be.

People, do as you like, it's your money, all I'm saying is - caution.

BR
  • #12,560
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:03am Aug 17, 2012 8:03am
Quoting tp0440
Do you percieve Al's post reflects this? Entering 2 full lots in the first positon is NOT scaling in.

1. There are new traders here
2. 2 full lots sound tempting. To tempting....
3. Post implies, there is like 0 chance, something can go wrong. This is as far away from the truth as it can be.

People, do as you like, it's your money, all I'm saying is - caution.

BR
Of course, everything is relative to account size. Still, scaling in and out of a position is more consistently profitable than entering all at one time. Letīs say you are trading 4% of your account in a position. Entering and exiting 1% four times is better than 4% at one time. You may also catch the top with your first 1% and then you scale in as price moves in your favor for the other 3%.

In the case of AudUsd, it went much higher than my first entry (Over 1.0600). If I had entered the full position at 1.0375, I would be waiting just to break even, while this way the average entry was higher.

You are right. I usually am early on most of my trades. Thatīs why I decided to scale in some time ago.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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