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  • #141
  • Aug 15, 2012 12:27pm Aug 15, 2012 12:27pm
Instead of being worried about the relationships between pairs, you might want to focus more on the chart in front of you and pick one or two pairs and that's it. Anything else, you will just confuse yourself. Sometimes the pairs work together, sometimes they don't. But its always good to be aware of whats going on with the other pairs, just don't focus too much on them.
  • #142
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:31pm Aug 15, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
95% of people lose money in forex. That's a FACT.

Of the rest 5% it's divided as follow:

30% make between 50 and 200 dollars per month.

30% make with "luck" around 1k per month...

and the rest make a living off it, after 10 years of experience and burning their brain, ass, damaging their eyes after so much reading and learning, getting several dental implants and crowns after so much coffee and bad habits, and trying to recover their damaged mental and physical health after so much sedentary and stressful life. That's why successful...
What's true today, does not have to be true tomorrow.
This is not physics, this is trading, "fact" can be temporary.
Perhaps if cynics spents less time dwelling on factual trading outcomes and more time learning a successful method (there are many), then these "facts" might change.
But then again, I hear in forex that every winning transaction requires a losing transaction at the other end, so don't go changing too much guys, we need you...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #143
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:03pm Aug 15, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Perhaps if cynics spents less time dwelling on factual trading outcomes and more time learning a successful method (there are many), then these "facts" might change.
But then again, I hear in forex that every winning transaction requires a losing transaction at the other end, so don't go changing too much guys, we need you...
I am not cynical, not cynical at all... after all it's easier to fool people (the 95% losers) than to convince people they have been fooled (the 5% winners) (O:
... with my apologies to Mark Twain
  • #144
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:13pm Aug 15, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting Mingary
I am not cynical, not cynical at all... after all it's easier to fool people (the 95% losers) than to convince people they have been fooled (the 5% winners) (O:
... with my apologies to Mark Twain

Perhaps I'm just a little simple and some things Mark Twain says may go over my head.
Are you saying the 5 percent of people who make money/living from Forex have been fooled and don't know it ?? If so, can you please explain this logic?
If not, then perhaps break this down for me 'cause as I say, I'm a little simple some days.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #145
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:29pm Aug 15, 2012 5:29pm
I understand the role pride, ignorance and ego play in people denying/not realising they have been fooled, I just don't see how it applies to the winners?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #146
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:38pm Aug 15, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting Mingary
I am not cynical, not cynical at all... after all it's easier to fool people (the 95% losers) than to convince people they have been fooled (the 5% winners) (O:
... with my apologies to Mark Twain
Let me get this straight:
You think that even the winners have been fooled and you say you are NOT CYNICAL

sorry, but this makes me laugh
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #147
  • Aug 15, 2012 6:08pm Aug 15, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Let me get this straight:
You think that even the winners have been fooled and you say you are NOT CYNICAL

sorry, but this makes me laugh
don't forget the "I don't believe you can win at forex with anything more than luck, but I'll spend time debating it in a forex forum".

Whatever the theme, there's almost always going to be some self-contradicting fanatics who think they possess the "truth".
  • #148
  • Edited 7:35pm Aug 15, 2012 6:19pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting cjohnsondies
great info mate, and that makes me think of another angle that i often wonder about because someone told me that "if the pound is bullish the euro is generally heading up as well and vise versa, so don't get caught in a senario where you are shorting the GBP and long on the EUR". .......
Cory,

Welcome to the forum.

There's a lot of truth in what you're saying. Every pair is merely a ratio between the perceived strength of two economies, e.g. GBPUSD is a measure of the strength of GBP relative to USD (or vice versa). Moreover, due to efficiency in the market, relationships like GBP/USD x USD/JPY = GBP/JPY are always maintained. (Try it: multiply GBPUSD's price by USDJPY's price and you'll get GBPJPY's price). It's a straight algebraic process of canceling like numerators and denominators.

Hence this means that, if GBPUSD is trending up, and USDJPY likewise, then since GBP > USD > JPY, GBPJPY will be trending up even more strongly, making it the logical pair to trade. In other words, pairing the strongest currency against the weakest gives you access to the strongest (more pips) and cleanest (less chance of zigzagging back to hit your SL) trends.

Of course this remains true only for as long as these relative strengths and weaknesses remain in place. But that is the basis of all trend-based analysis: that what has happened in the (recent) past will continue on into the future. The trend trader buys strength and sells weakness; whereas the counter-trend trader buys weakness and sells strength, anticipating that a reversal is imminent.

Read the comments by unknown4x in this thread. They explain the money flows between the different nations' currencies.

You can use a strength indicator to highlight strengths and weaknesses of individual currencies. I use two that I created myself (Recent Strength and CSM), shown in the attached screenshots. They complement each other, by using different calculations. They run fine on my Win XP config, but if you want to use them on Vista or Win7, there may be problems with the user permissions. There are plenty of other strength indys elsewhere, if you want to search for them.

My main use for these is in the longer timeframes (H4, D1, W1, MN). I don't understand economics, hence I use the strength indys as a proxy, to tell me which economies are perceived as being weak, and which are strong. Then, after pairing a strong currency against a weak one, I check the trend on the daily chart, and base my intraday entries in the direction of that trend. Maybe 70%-80% of the time, macroeconomic (and presumably other) factors seem to hold these trends in place for long enough to allow profitable trades.

Two advantages of using a strength-based approach are: (1) both currencies must reverse in strength, to give a complete reversal of the pair's trend, theoretically increasing your chances of being successful; and (2) strength can tell you which pair(s) to examine, without interfering with your preferred trading (entry/exit) strategy.

However, as rtiger29 points out, there are other approaches to trading, by studying the idiosyncrasies of one or two pairs only. While the strength approach is valid for currencies, technical studies are applicable to pairs. To whatever extent TA creates the 'orderflow' that moves price (by way 'self fulfilling prophecy': if enough heavyweight traders trade a given pattern similarly, their orders will create buying/selling strength [by way of market orders], or 'barriers' [by way of pending orders]), technical studies are valid. Chicken or egg: does economic strength drive technicals, or is it the other way around? There are many complex factors interacting simultaneously, making price movement somewhat unpredictable.

Good luck,
David
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  • #149
  • Edited 8:22pm Aug 15, 2012 8:01pm | Edited 8:22pm
Continuing my previous post, here's an example of a strength-based trade. From the strength plots, CAD (brown) is strongest, JPY (purple) is weak. We have a nice congestion area (red box in the attached screenshot) in CADJPY,M15, allowing a low risk buy. The Tokyo session has started; price breaks upside from the congestion and stalls near the round number 80.00 (the dashed indigo line), allowing me to take a quick profit of around 11 pips. The painted green candles indicate high range, high volume candles, which can be a sign of professional activity (see the VSA threads).

For as long as CAD remains strong, and JPY weak, CADJPY will, on balance, continue to rise, providing a directional bias to any buy trades that I make, and making timing the only issue. I call that an edge; the skeptics will call it luck. Take your pick.

Sorry for getting off-topic. I'll end my involvement in this thread here.
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  • #150
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:50am Aug 16, 2012 4:50am
Quoting cjohnsondies
seriously man! thanks so much! definitely great food for thought

cory
You're welcome. Hopefully I made some sense because I know that I'm not very good at explaining things. But I see this morning was another good example of the effect that EUR/GBP can have. Some dumping of EUR/GBP lead to Cable (GBP/USD) spiking while EUR/USD basically went nowhere. Anyway the charts can explain it a lot better than I can

Just be careful when September starts. Currencies tend to trend again and it's not a good idea to stand in front of the train unless you are a very good countertrend trader. The market has been very good the last couple of months. Usual Summer doldrums. It's lulled a lot of traders into a false sense of security. I'm expecting it to be wild and also hoping I'm not gonna be the blood on the streets.

All the best.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #151
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:53am Aug 16, 2012 4:53am
Quoting Marv
Female traders do exist, and Patience is one.
I like being one of the boys. Allows me to say things that ladies normally wouldn't say ... lol
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #152
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:09am Aug 16, 2012 5:09am
Quoting Marv
don't forget the "I don't believe you can win at forex with anything more than luck, but I'll spend time debating it in a forex forum".

Whatever the theme, there's almost always going to be some self-contradicting fanatics who think they possess the "truth".
Agreed

And so he should apologise to Mr Twain, such grose misrepresentation of this brilliant authors insight is atrocious
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #153
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:22am Aug 16, 2012 9:22am
Quoting Mingary
It's rather obvious that no one makes any money in forex (except for brokers and skimmy scammers of course).
Picture it as a big wheel turning up in profit for some period and down again. Money made today is lost tomorrow. Depends on the time frame. No one makes money in forex long term. Those people perceived as poster boys of trading success made it to the all-of-fame for entirely different reasons, i.e. very little trading, lots of OPM.
I agree that many people are losing money in the market, however, there are still some successful traders though the percentage is not big.
  • #154
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:37am Aug 16, 2012 10:37am
Quoting daminghu
I agree that many people are losing money in the market, however, there are still some successful traders though the percentage is not big.
Thank goodness, at last we see a logical view on things to do with forex profits rather than this "random", "lucky", "impossible profits" nonsense peddled by frustrated traders who clearly have no idea how to trade and so therefore arrogantly assume no one can.
Thanks dude
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #155
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:32pm Aug 16, 2012 4:32pm
I make about $1M a week, but that's because I have a genie who tells me the future
  • #156
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:05am Aug 17, 2012 3:05am
Quoting Patience
I like being one of the boys. Allows me to say things that ladies normally wouldn't say ... lol
regardless sorry about the presumption. however it doesn't change good advice.
  • #157
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:46am Aug 17, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Thank goodness, at last we see a logical view on things to do with forex profits rather than this "random", "lucky", "impossible profits" nonsense peddled by frustrated traders who clearly have no idea how to trade and so therefore arrogantly assume no one can.
Thanks dude
yeah, exaggeration is not helpful at all, and many losers do not view the whole thing with an insight.
  • #158
  • Aug 18, 2012 4:04am Aug 18, 2012 4:04am
Quoting daminghu
yeah, exaggeration is not helpful at all, and many losers do not view the whole thing with an insight.
Ok fine. I see my sense of irony is lost on everyone. Now, to the contrary, I have had great insights for years. These are my guidelines for trading the forex:

Here are 50 ways to make sure you fail- seal your fate, and be totally successful at failing.
1. Go for the wrong goals.
2. Give up quickly.
3. Give up when the prize is almost near- when you’re nearing the finish line- just a little bit more…. Tell yourself it won’t work. Give up.
4. Don’t give up. Go on doggedly to do what you’ve been doing. Don’t change. It is what you’re most comfortable with.
5. Don’t know what you want.
6. Don’t know why you want what you want.
7. Don’t want what you want badly enough.
8. Expect not to succeed- after all the statistics show it. Majority do not make it.
9. Give strong enough reasons (excuses) - why you didn’t succeed and accept them wholeheartedly.
10. Don’t look at the mistake. There never was one.
11. Live in regret.
12. Look at the mistake and then replay the incident over and over again. Relive the painful experience, and drill it into your mind, your subconscious. Until it becomes a part of you.
13. Procrastinate.
14. Worry. Day and night. If you don’t worry, you are not working on the problem.
15. Think about the worst outcome possible and focus on it.
16. Don’t be grateful for what you have.
17. Do nothing. Depend on someone to come over and help you. Wait for the answer to come or the solution to drop from the sky.
18. Think win-lose. I win, you lose. You win, I lose.
19. Don’t learn from your mistakes- repeat them again- there will be better luck next time.
20. Focus on the mistake, analyze till you’re paralyzed, who was to blame for what, and when, and how. Take up all your energy analyzing the past. So that you do not have enough mental energy to think of the future.
21. Be a perfectionist- everything must be perfect before you take action.
22. Don’t have to courage to change.
23. Be very fearful. Of trying again. And of failing again.
24. Please others. Make everyone happy except yourself.
25. Don’t have a plan. Life is unpredictable.
26. Don’t have a vision for your life, your work, your task at hand.
27. Don’t dream about your life, what it can be. It cannot be. Life is cannot be so good.
28. Don’t set goals. Let the day drift and roll as it comes.
29. Spend your time on the inconsequential things and everything else that grab your attention. The 80% of things that don’t matter.
30. Don’t stop to analyze or think about which parts of your life matter more than others- the crucial 20% that matter.
31. Focus on the results as final and sealing your future fate and destiny.
32. Wallow in your sorrow. Pity yourself. Exceedingly.
33. Don’t take a break. Work and work. That’s the only way to get out.
34. Take the results of your present life as final. If you have achieved success, rest on your laurels. If have not achieved success, conclude that you will never will.
35. Blame your neighbor.
36. Blame your dog.
37. Don’t take care of your physical health. Indulge, enjoy. Let the calories, the nicotine, the alcohol, the grease and carcinogens into your body freely. Life is short. Live for the present.
38. Escape and be addicted to a vice. Escape to a new world where you will never have to face your problems.
39. Mix with the wrong company.
40. Ask the wrong person for advice
41. Blame your childhood.
42. Blame our present circumstances.
43. Blame your boss and colleagues, friends and partner.
44. Blame yourself. And then never forgive yourself.
45. Be angry and resentful. Remember the incident and think you are doing yourself a favor by doing so.
46. Don’t trust anyone. They’re all unreliable.
47. Trust everyone and get cheated. Then believe they’re all cheats.
48. Be very discouraged from your failure. There is no point. All is hopeless.
49. Believe that there is no help, no redeeming factor. It is final.
50. To seal it all in, wallow in self pity. Believe you were not meant for anything. Believe you’re a total absolute failure. Nothing works. Nothing ever will .
  • #159
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:01am Aug 18, 2012 7:01am
Making money in forex is mostly psychological. When I used to have a big loss, I would get upset. But, I kept trying. Then after a while when I would have a big loss, I started to think If I had just had my position in the opposite direction, I would have had a big profit. It takes time, research and a lot of staring at the computer screen, but eventually you will get the hang of it. Try to keep a positive attitude.
  • #160
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:59am Aug 18, 2012 7:59am
Quoting Makavelli7
Hi Valid,

I wount give you signals or a written trade strategy but ill send you a PM with some very usefull tips on how to drastically reduce your learning curve, and over a period of time, develope a consistent and highly profitable trade entry and exit method totally suited to your person.
Could you send that PM to me aswell? I feel like I am on the right track right now, but you can never be too sure.
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