AUD/USD

THE CME = THE CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE.

IF you know anything about Futures which it is apparent you don't (no harm intended) You would know that the FUTURES exchange Began in CHICAGO, due to the change in crop prices of the midwest America, to put it as simply as possible.

For instance if you are a farmer and the weather forecast is showing a wipe out of your potential CORN or SOYBEANS or etc, sales, -- the FUTURES EX. allowed you to go on an exchange and HEDGE YOUR MONEY. For instance again. You know that the crop will be poor, thus, you short corn, so when you don't get paid from your crop, the market pays you on your short. AND YOU BREAK EVEN.

This MARKET was not originally designed for SPECULATION, it was for HEDGING, large and small cap spex came later,

Now, this can work in many different ways, you also could be as brash as to say "I know this will be a phenomenal season for my CORN crop, thus I will speculate more cash on the futures market and BUY or GO LONG CORN, then when you sell your crop and your contract you have doubled your money.

SPOT is like FUTURES, except the rules are different. When you buy spot even if you are looking ten minutes down the line you are looking into WHAT YOU THINK might happen in the FUTURE.

Simplest explanation.

ADD: When you take a futures contract that is EXACTLY what it is a contract, when you buy and sell "ON THE SPOT" hence the term "SPOT"
it is an instant transaction, not one that holds other extremities, such as delivery, default, etc. now getting too complicated.
The CME offers CURRENCY FUTURES as well.............

here

She is NOW TESTING THE ABOVE SHOWN DIP SPOT. THE X

This is the ONE chance to get long with low risk.

IF she breaks the lower tl have a stop placed,

Otherwise she will bounce north.

Or you could trade cable.! LOL

To put words into a picture.

Risk 30 to make 70+ not bad. we will see.................................................................................................. ,

Good posts. Don't worry about getting complicated. Its usually the over simplified explanation that don't allow a person to gain they details they need for success. But impatient people always want the quick easy way. So, again your posts are most welcomed and appreciated.

Thank you for your kind words, and I will leave you all to decide what to do at the CUSP, shown below.

How perfect this one finally came out. G/L Guys.
XT

Dab,

Thank you yes I sometimes see that post here and there because I follow a few traders over there as well. My apologies moving forward when I post a futures symbol I will write out the actual contract name out. ES= S&P 500 contract, which is similar to the Dow but more closely watched and traded that its counterpart.

I agree with you it has been disappointment and hyped expectations almost each time especially after May’s debacle. The reason I stated that this time could see a shift in positioning is because this month is realistically the very last chance they have for stimulus. What I mean by that is besides 08’ the Federal reserve/treasury has stayed out of the markets (intervention wise) on election year as to not upset or shift political views of the electorate. Remember gold the very beginning of this year when Goldman called for stimulus in JAN/FEB everybody bid up the price at the time where margins were significantly higher than today , then ben reinforced to stimulus and holding the positions became to risky and expensive when they knew the upside appreciation was slim to none. Now to the AUD because it is a commodity currency and at certain points of extreme positioning is highly correlated with the dollar sometimes direct/inverse.

The AUD/USD short= This is charting really if you look at S&P 500, oil, Copper, Palladium, platinum and bonds most of those markets RSI is overextended and I suspect when COT comes out tomorrow we will see a bigger % increase than normal in risk assets. Now if Ben comes out and says ‘no’ you will see the Dollar further appreciate going into the EOY with a new high. This sends currencies down, metals, certain commodities.

The AUD/USD= If he says yes well this is pretty certain that equities will rise albeit less effective that the last two times into Nov. AUD.USD interventionism is starting to make internet space but until the RBA shifts rhetoric on their stance then I would buy the dips

Xtrade,

Thank you for the response I could not have said it any better myself on CME. Much appreciated.

You are right about the election and many other points.

YET, due to the election and benny being Obama's buddy, let's see what kind of SH!T he spews.

Markets will sort it out within days, yet a bad day it may be for the "day trader"

YOU are quite welcome my friend.

XT

Australian Treasury Dismisses AUD Intervention Calls


So, they say they don't care if it goes up, then this bitch plummets... WTF???????

I agree with the premise that if Obama makes that call ben would push the button or in this case click the mouse a few 100 billion times lol...I am actually praising Ben this year for not giving us another round of QE as this will continue to destroy the dollar and shift funds out of the country..

I'm still not short. I saw an entry earlier, but because i have been burnt on this pair this week I decided not to take it. We are getting closer to the uptrend line and 1.040 support level. There have been better pairs to trade this week even though A/U is my preferred pair. I guess every relationship goes through its ups and downs

"AUD/USD continues to slide after lunch not helped by AUD treasury comment
DJN reports AUD Treasury says "rates should be lowered if AUD too high"
Continues "intervention wouldn't work"
Combined with rumours of CNY band widening has AUD trading below y'days low
AUD/USD low so far 1.0468 - mkt building in a 120% probability of Sept rate cut"


maybe because of these factors...

I will wait for this hourly candle to close to see how it trades but if we go long at 1.0480 with a stop loss 1.0450 and a target of 1.0540 not a bad trade.
30/60.

The S&P shows a big exhaustive buying candle yesterday so I would expect up to touch the new YTD high going into the weekend, then we will look at a great short.

for the RBA they will come out and talk about not intervening (which they really do want a lower aud) and do the following.
1. We don't see a need to intervene
2. CNBC, financial newspapers will start saying time to intervene?
3. Traders perceptions will shift slightly but will buy the aud
4. RBA comes back because talking down the AUD did not work so lets start saying a strong AUD can cause growth issues and we are monitoring prices closely
5. They leak out to financial preess their checking quotes sending the pair whipping down and up
6.COT positioning started to shift to unloading longs and more neutral bias
7. They intervene

There is a few missing steps between 6-7 but we will see when that point comes

GBP EUR S&P all trading upward and AUD is still heavy.
Buy Market on opening of next hourly bar.
SL: 1.0420

I think intervention talk will be forceful on sentiment but if people look at major breaks lower or higher they usually test a few times before falling through we are only experiencing our first test really.

Bye bye AU for a while. Too scared to get in.

Sorry jplazard, what is COT?

Thanks for previous reply.

went Flat EUR from earlier yesterday morning.

Now just have AUD long at 1.0450 open (small position +3). It really is getting bashed here I like to 1.0420 stop but if we reach then obviously 1.04 will be gunned for (DNT options) then the next uptrend support at 1.0345

Commitment of Traders report. This is the futures report that shows large traders/commercial hedgers and retail traders positions. If you exceed a certain position limit on the exchange you have to report it to the regulators and they process this report.

http://cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmelof.htm
this is last weeks. Near the bottom you will see Australian Dollar positioning.

If you want to know how to understand COT their are some great (free) sites that explain how it works and how the floor trades USED to trade it.

For a simple example look at finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A
the link above commercial hedgers (green) are companies, institutions, non profits who are trying to hedge currency exposure from doing business overseas where they get a big part of their revenue or receiving payment in a future time frame but want to lock in the value now to avoid the fluctuation.

Large traders (non commercial red) Hedge funds, managed accounts, Investment banks are the big money players like Soros, Paulson, John taylor(fx concepts) and my favorite PTJ show positioning. Of course it can only be taken at face value because they could have options plays where their delta-neutral or other type strategies.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A

If you look at the Daily time frame you see sometimes they cross and that signals a major shift in the trend. I will explain more later when we start to settle down here on this pair